In this paper, we present a monitoring system that allows increasing road safety by predicting ice formation. The system consists of a network of road weather stations and intelligence data processing program module. The results were achieved by combining physical models for forecasting road conditions based on measurements from stations and machine learning models for detecting incorrect data and forecast correction.
Mediamobile（Mediamobile 公司）；Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse（图卢兹数学研究所）；INSA（法国国立应用科学学院）
In this paper, we propose deep learning architectures (FNN, CNN and LSTM) to forecast a regression model for time dependent data. These algorithm's are designed to handle Floating Car Data (FCD) historic speeds to predict road traffic data. For this we aggregate the speeds into the network inputs in an innovative way. We compare the RMSE thus obtained with the results of a simpler physical model, and show that the latter achieves better RMSE accuracy. We also propose a new indicator, which evaluates the algorithms improvement when compared to a benchmark prediction. We conclude by questioning …
Enhancing Prediction and Analysis of UK Road Traffic Accident Severity Using AI: Integration of Machine Learning, Econometric Techniques, and Time Series Forecasting in Public Health Research
NAVER Corp（NAVER公司）；Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST)（蔚山科学技术院（UNIST））；Korea University（高丽大学）；National Research University Higher School of Economics (NRU-HSE)（俄罗斯国立高等经济大学（NRU-HSE））；Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)（韩国科学技术院（KAIST））
Predicting road traffic speed is a challenging task due to different types of roads, abrupt speed change and spatial dependencies between roads; it requires the modeling of dynamically changing spatial dependencies among roads and temporal patterns over long input sequences. This paper proposes a novel spatio-temporal graph attention (ST-GRAT) that effectively captures the spatio-temporal dynamics in road networks. The novel aspects of our approach mainly include spatial attention, temporal attention, and spatial sentinel vectors. The spatial attention takes the graph structure information (e.…
The interest in developing smart cities has increased dramatically in recent years. In this context an intelligent transportation system depicts a major topic. The forecast of traffic flow is indispensable for an efficient intelligent transportation system. The traffic flow forecast is a difficult task, due to its stochastic and non linear nature. Besides classical statistical methods, neural networks are a promising possibility to predict future traffic flow. In our work, this prediction is performed with various recurrent neural networks. These are trained on measurements of induction loops,…
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）
Spatiotemporal forecasting has various applications in neuroscience, climate and transportation domain. Traffic forecasting is one canonical example of such learning task. The task is challenging due to (1) complex spatial dependency on road networks, (2) non-linear temporal dynamics with changing road conditions and (3) inherent difficulty of long-term forecasting. To address these challenges, we propose to model the traffic flow as a diffusion process on a directed graph and introduce Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (DCRNN), a deep learning framework for traffic forecasting …
Traffic forecasting influences various intelligent transportation system (ITS) services and is of great significance for user experience as well as urban traffic control. It is challenging due to the fact that the road network contains complex and time-varying spatial-temporal dependencies. Recently, deep learning based methods have achieved promising results by adopting graph convolutional network (GCN) to extract the spatial correlations and recurrent neural network (RNN) to capture the temporal dependencies. However, the existing methods often construct the graph only based on road network …
RIPCN: A Road Impedance Principal Component Network for Probabilistic Traffic Flow Forecasting
School of Computer Science；Technology Beijing Jiaotong University Beijing China；Department of Computer Science Aalborg University Aalborg Denmark；Key Laboratory of Big Data \& Artificial Intelligence in Transportation, Ministry of Education Beijing China；Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Data Mining；Beijing Jiaotong University；Aalborg University；Key Laboratory of Big Data \& Artificial Intelligence in Transportation, Ministry of Education
TECNALIA, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA)（TECNALIA，巴斯克研究与技术联盟（BRTA））；University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU)（巴斯克大学（UPV/EHU））
Deep Learning methods have been proven to be flexible to model complex phenomena. This has also been the case of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), in which several areas such as vehicular perception and traffic analysis have widely embraced Deep Learning as a core modeling technology. Particularly in short-term traffic forecasting, the capability of Deep Learning to deliver good results has generated a prevalent inertia towards using Deep Learning models, without examining in depth their benefits and downsides. This paper focuses on critically analyzing the state of the art in what ref…
BMW Group（宝马集团）；University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich（慕尼黑联邦国防军大学）
Most traffic state forecast algorithms when applied to urban road networks consider only the links in close proximity to the target location. However, for longer-term forecasts also the traffic state of more distant links or regions of the network are expected to provide valuable information for a data-driven algorithm. This paper studies these expectations of using a network clustering algorithm and one year of Floating Car (FCD) collected by a large fleet of vehicles. First, a clustering algorithm is applied to the data in order to extract congestion-prone regions in the Munich city network.…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；INRIX, Inc.（因瑞克斯公司）
Traffic forecasting is a particularly challenging application of spatiotemporal forecasting, due to the time-varying traffic patterns and the complicated spatial dependencies on road networks. To address this challenge, we learn the traffic network as a graph and propose a novel deep learning framework, Traffic Graph Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (TGC-LSTM), to learn the interactions between roadways in the traffic network and forecast the network-wide traffic state. We define the traffic graph convolution based on the physical network topology. The relationship between t…
Peking University（北京大学）；Hangzhou Dianzi University（杭州电子科技大学）；Beijing Institute of Big Data Research (BIBDR)（北京大数据研究院）
Spatio-temporal prediction plays an important role in many application areas especially in traffic domain. However, due to complicated spatio-temporal dependency and high non-linear dynamics in road networks, traffic prediction task is still challenging. Existing works either exhibit heavy training cost or fail to accurately capture the spatio-temporal patterns, also ignore the correlation between distant roads that share the similar patterns. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework to overcome these issues: 3D Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (3D-TGCN). Two novel compon…
Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology（蔚山科学技术院）
Traffic forecasting is a challenging problem due to complex road networks and sudden speed changes caused by various events on roads. A number of models have been proposed to solve this challenging problem with a focus on learning spatio-temporal dependencies of roads. In this work, we propose a new perspective of converting the forecasting problem into a pattern matching task, assuming that large data can be represented by a set of patterns. To evaluate the validness of the new perspective, we design a novel traffic forecasting model, called Pattern-Matching Memory Networks (PM-MemNet), which…
Learning Local Heterogeneity and Cross-Region Context for Large-Scale Traffic Forecasting
Northwestern Polytechnical University（西北工业大学）；City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）；Shenzhen Research Institute, City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学深圳研究院）；Northwest University（西北大学）
STMGF: An Effective Spatial-Temporal Multi-Granularity Framework for Traffic Forecasting
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）；School of Software, Shandong University（山东大学软件学院）；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）；Digital Research Institute of ENN Group（ENN集团数字研究院）
Efficient Traffic Forecasting on Large-Scale Road Network by Regularized Adaptive Graph Convolution
School of Computer Science and Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, China（中山大学计算机科学与工程学院）；School of Artificial Intelligence, Sun Yat-Sen University, China（中山大学人工智能学院）；Guangdong Key Laboratory of Big Data Analysis and Processing, China（广东大数据分析与处理重点实验室）
Universidad de Sevilla（塞维利亚大学）；Universidad Loyola Andalucía（安达卢西亚洛约拉大学）
This document analyzes the role of data-driven methodologies in Covid-19 pandemic. We provide a SWOT analysis and a roadmap that goes from the access to data sources to the final decision-making step. We aim to review the available methodologies while anticipating the difficulties and challenges in the development of data-driven strategies to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. A 3M-analysis is presented: Monitoring, Modelling and Making decisions. The focus is on the potential of well-known datadriven schemes to address different challenges raised by the pandemic: i) monitoring and forecasting the …
From Observation to Prediction: LSTM for Vehicle Lane Change Forecasting on Highway On/Off-Ramps
C-DRiVeS Lab: Cognitive Driving Research in Vehicular Systems（C-DRiVeS实验室：车载系统认知驾驶研究）；Computer Science and Engineering Department - Faculty of Media Engineering and Technology - German University in Cairo（计算机科学与工程系 - 媒体工程与技术学院 - 埃及德国大学）
Modelling crash rates in an urban area requires a swathe of data regarding historical and prevailing traffic volumes and crash events and characteristics. Provided that the traffic volume of urban networks is largely defined by typical work and school commute patterns, crash rates can be determined with a reasonable degree of accuracy. However, this process becomes more complicated for an area that is frequently subject to peaks and troughs in traffic volume and crash events owing to exogenous events (for example, extreme weather) rather than typical commute patterns. One such area that is par…
This paper presents a novel vehicle motion forecasting method based on multi-head attention. It produces joint forecasts for all vehicles on a road scene as sequences of multi-modal probability density functions of their positions. Its architecture uses multi-head attention to account for complete interactions between all vehicles, and long short-term memory layers for encoding and forecasting. It relies solely on vehicle position tracks, does not need maneuver definitions, and does not represent the scene with a spatial grid. This allows it to be more versatile than similar model while combin…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Nanjing University of Science and Technology（南京理工大学）
An accurate road surface friction prediction algorithm can enable intelligent transportation systems to share timely road surface condition to the public for increasing the safety of the road users. Previously, scholars developed multiple prediction models for forecasting road surface conditions using historical data. However, road surface condition data cannot be perfectly collected at every timestamp, e.g. the data collected by on-vehicle sensors may be influenced when vehicles cannot travel due to economic cost issue or weather issues. Such resulted missing values in the collected data can …
This paper introduces a computational framework to reconstruct and forecast a partially observed state that evolves according to an unknown or expensive-to-simulate dynamical system. Our reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters (ROAD-EnKFs) learn a latent low-dimensional surrogate model for the dynamics and a decoder that maps from the latent space to the state space. The learned dynamics and decoder are then used within an ensemble Kalman filter to reconstruct and forecast the state. Numerical experiments show that if the state dynamics exhibit a hidden low-dimensional structu…
Huawei Amsterdam Research Center（华为阿姆斯特丹研究中心）；National and Kapodistrian University of Athens（雅典国立卡波季斯特里安大学）
The ever increasing amount of GPS-equipped vehicles provides in real-time valuable traffic information for the roads traversed by the moving vehicles. In this way, a set of sparse and time evolving traffic reports is generated for each road. These time series are a valuable asset in order to forecast the future traffic condition. In this paper we present a deep learning framework that encodes the sparse recent traffic information and forecasts the future traffic condition. Our framework consists of a recurrent part and a decoder. The recurrent part employs an attention mechanism that encodes t…
Accurate traffic prediction is crucial to improve the performance of intelligent transportation systems. Previous traffic prediction tasks mainly focus on small and non-isolated traffic subsystems, while the Traffic4cast 2022 competition is dedicated to exploring the traffic state dynamics of entire cities. Given one hour of sparse loop count data only, the task is to predict the congestion classes for all road segments and the expected times of arrival along super-segments 15 minutes into the future. The sparsity of loop counter data and highly uncertain real-time traffic conditions make the …
Politecnico di Torino（都灵理工大学）；New York University Abu Dhabi（纽约大学阿布扎比分校）
Currently, Machine Learning (ML) is becoming ubiquitous in everyday life. Deep Learning (DL) is already present in many applications ranging from computer vision for medicine to autonomous driving of modern cars as well as other sectors in security, healthcare, and finance. However, to achieve impressive performance, these algorithms employ very deep networks, requiring a significant computational power, both during the training and inference time. A single inference of a DL model may require billions of multiply-and-accumulated operations, making the DL extremely compute- and energy-hungry. I…
