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arXiv 2411.07537cs.LG
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基于深度卷积和循环神经网络模型的事故影响预测

Accident Impact Prediction based on a deep convolutional and recurrent neural network model

Department of Industrial Engineering, Sharif University of Technology(谢里夫理工大学工业工程系);School of Industrial and System Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology(佐治亚理工学院工业与系统工程学院);Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Ohio State University(俄亥俄州立大学计算机科学与工程系)

Pouyan Sajadi, Mahya Qorbani, Sobhan Moosavi, Erfan Hassannayebi

AI总结:

针对现有事故预测模型依赖昂贵数据且缺乏准确衡量指标的问题,提出结合 LSTM 和 CNN 的 cascade model,利用现成数据预测事故后影响,实验表明其在预测不同影响程度时精确率和召回率更优。

摘要:

交通事故对公共安全构成重大威胁,每年导致大量伤亡和沉重的经济负担。开发能够利用现成数据实时预测事故后影响的预测模型,在预防不良后果和提升整体安全性方面可发挥关键作用。然而,现有的事故预测模型面临两大主要挑战:首先,依赖于昂贵或非实时的数据;其次,缺乏准确衡量事故后影响的综合指标。为了解决这些局限性,本研究提出了一种称为 cascade model 的深度神经网络模型。该模型利用来自 Los Angeles County 的现实现成数据来预测事故后影响。该模型由两部分组成:Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) 和 Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)。LSTM 模型用于捕获时间模式,而 CNN 则从稀疏的事故数据集中提取模式。此外,还引入了外部交通拥堵数据集,以推导出一个称为“事故影响”因子的新特征,用于量化事故对周围交通流的影响。研究进行了大量实验,以证明所提出的混合机器学习方法在预测事故后影响方面相较于 state-of-the-art baselines 的有效性。结果表明,在预测最小影响(即无报告事故的案例)方面具有更高的精确率,而在预测更显著影响(即有报告事故的案例)方面具有更高的召回率。

英文摘要:

Traffic accidents pose a significant threat to public safety, resulting in numerous fatalities, injuries, and a substantial economic burden each year. The development of predictive models capable of real-time forecasting of post-accident impact using readily available data can play a crucial role in preventing adverse outcomes and enhancing overall safety. However, existing accident predictive models encounter two main challenges: first, reliance on either costly or non-real-time data, and second the absence of a comprehensive metric to measure post-accident impact accurately. To address these limitations, this study proposes a deep neural network model known as the cascade model. It leverages readily available real-world data from Los Angeles County to predict post-accident impacts. The model consists of two components: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). The LSTM model captures temporal patterns, while the CNN extracts patterns from the sparse accident dataset. Furthermore, an external traffic congestion dataset is incorporated to derive a new feature called the "accident impact" factor, which quantifies the influence of an accident on surrounding traffic flow. Extensive experiments were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid machine learning method in predicting the post-accident impact compared to state-of-the-art baselines. The results reveal a higher precision in predicting minimal impacts (i.e., cases with no reported accidents) and a higher recall in predicting more significant impacts (i.e., cases with reported accidents).

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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