Embedding Graph Convolutional Networks in Recurrent Neural Networks for Predictive Monitoring
Centro Singular de Investigación en Tecnoloxías Intelixentes (CiTIUS), Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学智能技术研究中心（CiTIUS））；Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学）；Departamento de Electrónica e Computación, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学电子与计算系）
Predictive monitoring of business processes is a subfield of process mining that aims to predict, among other things, the characteristics of the next event or the sequence of next events. Although multiple approaches based on deep learning have been proposed, mainly recurrent neural networks and convolutional neural networks, none of them really exploit the structural information available in process models. This paper proposes an approach based on graph convolutional networks and recurrent neural networks that uses information directly from the process model. An experimental evaluation on real-life event logs shows that our approach is more consistent and outperforms the current state-of-the-art approaches.
University of Windsor（温莎大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Stirling（斯特林大学）；Western General Hospital（西部综合医院）
Faecal Calprotectin (FC) is a surrogate marker for intestinal inflammation, termed Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD), but not for cancer. In this retrospective study of 804 patients, an enhanced benchmark predictive model for analyzing FC is developed, based on a novel state-of-the-art Echo State Network (ESN), an advanced dynamic recurrent neural network which implements a biologically plausible architecture, and a supervised learning mechanism. The proposed machine learning driven predictive model is benchmarked against a conventional logistic regression model, demonstrating statistically sig…
Neural networks mapping sequences to sequences (seq2seq) lead to significant progress in machine translation and speech recognition. Their traditional architecture includes two recurrent networks (RNs) followed by a linear predictor. In this manuscript we perform analysis of a corresponding algorithm and show that the parameters of the RNs of the well trained predictive network are not independent of each other. Their dependence can be used to significantly improve the network effectiveness. The traditional seq2seq algorithms require short term memory of a size proportional to the predicted se…
The field of predictive process monitoring focuses on case-level models to predict a single specific outcome such as a particular objective, (remaining) time, or next activity/remaining sequence. Recently, a longer-horizon, model-wide approach has been proposed in the form of process model forecasting, which predicts the future state of a whole process model through the forecasting of all activity-to-activity relations at once using time series forecasting. This paper introduces the concept of \emph{predictive process model monitoring} which sits in the middle of both predictive process monito…
Recurrent networks are trained to memorize their input better, often in the hopes that such training will increase the ability of the network to predict. We show that networks designed to memorize input can be arbitrarily bad at prediction. We also find, for several types of inputs, that one-node networks optimized for prediction are nearly at upper bounds on predictive capacity given by Wiener filters, and are roughly equivalent in performance to randomly generated five-node networks. Our results suggest that maximizing memory capacity leads to very different networks than maximizing predicti…
Università di Trieste（的里雅斯特大学）；Saarland University（萨尔大学）；Royal Holloway University（伦敦大学皇家霍洛威学院）
We consider the problem of predictive monitoring (PM), i.e., predicting at runtime future violations of a system from the current state. We work under the most realistic settings where only partial and noisy observations of the state are available at runtime. Such settings directly affect the accuracy and reliability of the reachability predictions, jeopardizing the safety of the system. In this work, we present a learning-based method for PM that produces accurate and reliable reachability predictions despite partial observability (PO). We build on Neural Predictive Monitoring (NPM), a PM met…
The Robotics Institute, Carnegie-Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学机器人研究所）；School of Interactive Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院交互计算学院）
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a vital modeling technique that rely on internal states learned indirectly by optimization of a supervised, unsupervised, or reinforcement training loss. RNNs are used to model dynamic processes that are characterized by underlying latent states whose form is often unknown, precluding its analytic representation inside an RNN. In the Predictive-State Representation (PSR) literature, latent state processes are modeled by an internal state representation that directly models the distribution of future observations, and most recent work in this area has relied…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；MRC Brain Network Dynamics Unit（医学研究理事会脑网络动力学单元）；Hebei University of Technology（河北工业大学）
Predictive coding networks (PCNs) are an influential model for information processing in the brain. They have appealing theoretical interpretations and offer a single mechanism that accounts for diverse perceptual phenomena of the brain. On the other hand, backpropagation (BP) is commonly regarded to be the most successful learning method in modern machine learning. Thus, it is exciting that recent work formulates inference learning (IL) that trains PCNs to approximate BP. However, there are several remaining critical issues: (i) IL is an approximation to BP with unrealistic/non-trivial requir…
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；Emory University School of Medicine（埃默里大学医学院）；Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta（亚特兰大儿童医疗保健机构）
With the improvement of medical data capturing, vast amount of continuous patient monitoring data, e.g., electrocardiogram (ECG), real-time vital signs and medications, become available for clinical decision support at intensive care units (ICUs). However, it becomes increasingly challenging to model such data, due to high density of the monitoring data, heterogeneous data types and the requirement for interpretable models. Integration of these high-density monitoring data with the discrete clinical events (including diagnosis, medications, labs) is challenging but potentially rewarding since …
Ulm University（乌尔姆大学）；Mansoura University（曼苏拉大学）；German University in Cairo（开罗德国大学）
Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) has been integrated into process mining tools as a value-adding task. PPM provides useful predictions on the further execution of the running business processes. To this end, machine learning-based techniques are widely employed in the context of PPM. In order to gain stakeholders trust and advocacy of PPM predictions, eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods are employed in order to compensate for the lack of transparency of most efficient predictive models. Even when employed under the same settings regarding data, preprocessing techniques, and ML…
University of Minnesota（明尼苏达大学）；United States Geologic Survey（美国地质调查局）；University of Wisconsin-Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校）
In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for combining scientific knowledge within physics-based models and recurrent neural networks to advance scientific discovery in many dynamical systems. We will first describe the use of outputs from physics-based models in learning a hybrid-physics-data model. Then, we further incorporate physical knowledge in real-world dynamical systems as additional constraints for training recurrent neural networks. We will apply this approach on modeling lake temperature and quality where we take into account the physical constraints along both the depth dimen…
Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学）
Predictive monitoring of business processes is concerned with the prediction of ongoing cases on a business process. Lately, the popularity of deep learning techniques has propitiated an ever-growing set of approaches focused on predictive monitoring based on these techniques. However, the high disparity of process logs and experimental setups used to evaluate these approaches makes it especially difficult to make a fair comparison. Furthermore, it also difficults the selection of the most suitable approach to solve a specific problem. In this paper, we provide both a systematic literature rev…
Leveraging Data Augmentation and Siamese Learning for Predictive Process Monitoring
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands（数学与计算机科学系，埃因霍温理工大学，荷兰）；Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Padua, Italy（数学与计算机科学系，帕多瓦大学，意大利）
Imperial College of London（伦敦帝国理工学院）；Imperial College London（伦敦帝国理工学院）；University of Surrey（萨里大学）
Agitation is one of the neuropsychiatric symptoms with high prevalence in dementia which can negatively impact the Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and the independence of individuals. Detecting agitation episodes can assist in providing People Living with Dementia (PLWD) with early and timely interventions. Analysing agitation episodes will also help identify modifiable factors such as ambient temperature and sleep as possible components causing agitation in an individual. This preliminary study presents a supervised learning model to analyse the risk of agitation in PLWD using in-home monito…
In both mobile and web applications, speeding up user interface response times can often lead to significant improvements in user engagement. A common technique to improve responsiveness is to precompute data ahead of time for specific activities. However, simply precomputing data for all user and activity combinations is prohibitive at scale due to both network constraints and server-side computational costs. It is therefore important to accurately predict per-user application usage in order to minimize wasted precomputation ("predictive precompute"). In this paper, we describe the novel appl…
myInvenio（myInvenio 公司）；University of Padua（帕多瓦大学）；Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya（加泰罗尼亚理工大学）
Predictive Business Process Monitoring is becoming an essential aid for organizations, providing online operational support of their processes. This paper tackles the fundamental problem of equipping predictive business process monitoring with explanation capabilities, so that not only the what but also the why is reported when predicting generic KPIs like remaining time, or activity execution. We use the game theory of Shapley Values to obtain robust explanations of the predictions. The approach has been implemented and tested on real-life benchmarks, showing for the first time how explanatio…
University of Cincinnati（辛辛那提大学）；University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）；Central Michigan University（中央密歇根大学）；University of Louisiana at Lafayette（路易斯安那大学拉法叶分校）
Understanding human behavior and monitoring mental health are essential to maintaining the community and society's safety. As there has been an increase in mental health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic due to uncontrolled mental health, early detection of mental issues is crucial. Nowadays, the usage of Intelligent Virtual Personal Assistants (IVA) has increased worldwide. Individuals use their voices to control these devices to fulfill requests and acquire different services. This paper proposes a novel deep learning model based on the gated recurrent neural network and convolution neur…
RWTH Aachen University（亚琛工业大学）；Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；Fraunhofer FIT（弗劳恩霍夫应用信息技术研究所）
Predictive process monitoring is a subfield of process mining that aims to estimate case or event features for running process instances. Such predictions are of significant interest to the process stakeholders. However, state-of-the-art methods for predictive monitoring require the training of complex machine learning models, which is often inefficient. This paper proposes an instance selection procedure that allows sampling training process instances for prediction models. We show that our sampling method allows for a significant increase of training speed for next activity prediction method…
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Instituto Superior Técnico（高等技术研究所）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）
We introduce Recurrent Predictive State Policy (RPSP) networks, a recurrent architecture that brings insights from predictive state representations to reinforcement learning in partially observable environments. Predictive state policy networks consist of a recursive filter, which keeps track of a belief about the state of the environment, and a reactive policy that directly maps beliefs to actions, to maximize the cumulative reward. The recursive filter leverages predictive state representations (PSRs) (Rosencrantz and Gordon, 2004; Sun et al., 2016) by modeling predictive state-- a predictio…
paluno - The Ruhr Institute for Software Technology（帕鲁诺——鲁尔软件技术研究所）
Predictive business process monitoring increasingly leverages sophisticated prediction models. Although sophisticated models achieve consistently higher prediction accuracy than simple models, one major drawback is their lack of interpretability, which limits their adoption in practice. We thus see growing interest in explainable predictive business process monitoring, which aims to increase the interpretability of prediction models. Existing solutions focus on giving factual explanations.While factual explanations can be helpful, humans typically do not ask why a particular prediction was mad…
The predictive learning of spatiotemporal sequences aims to generate future images by learning from the historical context, where the visual dynamics are believed to have modular structures that can be learned with compositional subsystems. This paper models these structures by presenting PredRNN, a new recurrent network, in which a pair of memory cells are explicitly decoupled, operate in nearly independent transition manners, and finally form unified representations of the complex environment. Concretely, besides the original memory cell of LSTM, this network is featured by a zigzag memory f…
Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict as early as possible the final outcome of an ongoing case. Traditionally, predictive process monitoring methods are optimized with respect to accuracy. However, in environments where users make decisions and take actions in response to the predictions they receive, it is equally important to optimize the stability of the successive predictions made for each case. To this end, this paper defines a notion of temporal stability for binary classification ta…
AGH University of Science and Technology（AGH科技大学）；The European Organization for Nuclear Research - CERN（欧洲核子研究中心）；University of Maribor（马里博尔大学）
The superconducting LHC magnets are coupled with an electronic monitoring system which records and analyses voltage time series reflecting their performance. A currently used system is based on a range of preprogrammed triggers which launches protection procedures when a misbehavior of the magnets is detected. All the procedures used in the protection equipment were designed and implemented according to known working scenarios of the system and are updated and monitored by human operators. This paper proposes a novel approach to monitoring and fault protection of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC…
RWTH Aachen University（亚琛工业大学）；Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；Fraunhofer FIT（弗劳恩霍夫应用信息技术研究所）
Predictive process monitoring is a subfield of process mining that aims to estimate case or event features for running process instances. Such predictions are of significant interest to the process stakeholders. However, most of the state-of-the-art methods for predictive monitoring require the training of complex machine learning models, which is often inefficient. Moreover, most of these methods require a hyper-parameter optimization that requires several repetitions of the training process which is not feasible in many real-life applications. In this paper, we propose an instance selection …
KAIST（韩国科学技术院）；Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology（冲绳科学技术大学院大学）
The current paper proposes a novel variational Bayes predictive coding RNN model, which can learn to generate fluctuated temporal patterns from exemplars. The model learns to maximize the lower bound of the weighted sum of the regularization and reconstruction error terms. We examined how this weighting can affect development of different types of information processing while learning fluctuated temporal patterns. Simulation results show that strong weighting of the reconstruction term causes the development of deterministic chaos for imitating the randomness observed in target sequences, whil…
University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）；Universidad de los Andes（安第斯大学）
We propose a convolutional recurrent neural network, with Winner-Take-All dropout for high dimensional unsupervised feature learning in multi-dimensional time series. We apply the proposedmethod for object recognition with temporal context in videos and obtain better results than comparable methods in the literature, including the Deep Predictive Coding Networks previously proposed by Chalasani and Principe.Our contributions can be summarized as a scalable reinterpretation of the Deep Predictive Coding Networks trained end-to-end with backpropagation through time, an extension of the previousl…
This paper compares recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with different types of gated cells for forecasting time series with multiple seasonality. The cells we compare include classical long short term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), modified LSTM with dilation, and two new cells we proposed recently, which are equipped with dilation and attention mechanisms. To model the temporal dependencies of different scales, our RNN architecture has multiple dilated recurrent layers stacked with hierarchical dilations. The proposed RNN produces both point forecasts and predictive intervals (PIs) …
Time-Aware and Transition-Semantic Graph Neural Networks for Interpretable Predictive Business Process Monitoring
College of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, Khalifa University（卡利法大学计算与数学科学学院）；Department of Computer Science, Università degli Studi di Milano（米兰大学计算机科学系）
As large-scale time-series data can easily be found in real-world applications, multivariate time-series anomaly detection has played an essential role in diverse industries. It enables productivity improvement and maintenance cost reduction by preventing malfunctions and detecting anomalies based on time-series data. However, multivariate time-series anomaly detection is challenging because real-world time-series data exhibit complex temporal dependencies. For this task, it is crucial to learn a rich representation that effectively contains the nonlinear temporal dynamics of normal behavior. …
Predictive monitoring -- making predictions about future states and monitoring if the predicted states satisfy requirements -- offers a promising paradigm in supporting the decision making of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). Existing works of predictive monitoring mostly focus on monitoring individual predictions rather than sequential predictions. We develop a novel approach for monitoring sequential predictions generated from Bayesian Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) that can capture the inherent uncertainty in CPS, drawing on insights from our study of real-world CPS datasets. We propose a new…
Our project probes the relationship between temperatures and the blossom date of cherry trees. Through modeling, future flowering will become predictive, helping the public plan travels and avoid pollen season. To predict the date when the cherry trees will blossom exactly could be viewed as a multiclass classification problem, so we applied the multi-class Support Vector Classifier (SVC) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), particularly Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), to formulate the problem. In the end, we evaluate and compare the performance of these approaches to find out which one might be…
From Data Lifting to Continuous Risk Estimation: A Process-Aware Pipeline for Predictive Monitoring of Clinical Pathways
Department of Informatics, University of Bari Aldo Moro（巴里阿尔多·莫罗大学信息学院）；Department of Engineering, University of Sannio（萨尼奥大学工程学院）；Department of Economy and Law, UnitelmaSapienza University（单位elma萨皮恩扎大学经济法学院）
This work presents a proposal for a wireless sensor network for participatory sensing, with IoT sensing devices developed especially for monitoring and predicting air quality, as alternatives of high cost meteorological stations. The system, called pmSensing, aims to measure particulate material. A validation is done by comparing the data collected by the prototype with data from stations. The comparison shows that the results are close, which can enable low-cost solutions to the problem. The system still presents a predictive analysis using recurrent neural networks, in this case the LSTM-RNN…
Predictive process monitoring aims to predict future characteristics of an ongoing process case, such as case outcome or remaining timestamp. Recently, several predictive process monitoring methods based on deep learning such as Long Short-Term Memory or Convolutional Neural Network have been proposed to address the problem of next event prediction. However, due to insufficient training data or sub-optimal network configuration and architecture, these approaches do not generalize well the problem at hand. This paper proposes a novel adversarial training framework to address this shortcoming, b…
Mobility-on-demand (MoD) systems represent a rapidly developing mode of transportation wherein travel requests are dynamically handled by a coordinated fleet of vehicles. Crucially, the efficiency of an MoD system highly depends on how well supply and demand distributions are aligned in spatio-temporal space (i.e., to satisfy user demand, cars have to be available in the correct place and at the desired time). To do so, we argue that predictive models should aim to explicitly disentangle between temporal} and spatial variability in the evolution of urban mobility demand. However, current appro…
University of Tennessee（田纳西大学）；The University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）；Oak Ridge National Laboratory（橡树岭国家实验室）
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly used for disease progression modeling when the true patient health state is not fully known. Since HMMs typically have multiple local optima, incorporating additional patient covariates can improve parameter estimation and predictive performance. To allow for this, we develop hidden Markov recurrent neural networks (HMRNNs), a special case of recurrent neural networks that combine neural networks' flexibility with HMMs' interpretability. The HMRNN can be reduced to a standard HMM, with an identical likelihood function and parameter interpretations, but …
