Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict as early as possible the final outcome of an ongoing case. Traditionally, predictive process monitoring methods are optimized with respect to accuracy. However, in environments where users make decisions and take actions in response to the predictions they receive, it is equally important to optimize the stability of the successive predictions made for each case. To this end, this paper defines a notion of temporal stability for binary classification tasks in predictive process monitoring and evaluates existing methods with respect to both temporal stability and accuracy. We find that methods based on XGBoost and LSTM neural networks exhibit the highest temporal stability. We then show that temporal stability can be enhanced by hyperparameter-optimizing random forests and XGBoost classifiers with respect to inter-run stability. Finally, we show that time series smoothing techniques can further enhance temporal stability at the expense of slightly lower accuracy.
myInvenio（myInvenio 公司）；University of Padua（帕多瓦大学）；Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya（加泰罗尼亚理工大学）
Predictive Business Process Monitoring is becoming an essential aid for organizations, providing online operational support of their processes. This paper tackles the fundamental problem of equipping predictive business process monitoring with explanation capabilities, so that not only the what but also the why is reported when predicting generic KPIs like remaining time, or activity execution. We use the game theory of Shapley Values to obtain robust explanations of the predictions. The approach has been implemented and tested on real-life benchmarks, showing for the first time how explanatio…
Predictive process monitoring aims to predict future characteristics of an ongoing process case, such as case outcome or remaining timestamp. Recently, several predictive process monitoring methods based on deep learning such as Long Short-Term Memory or Convolutional Neural Network have been proposed to address the problem of next event prediction. However, due to insufficient training data or sub-optimal network configuration and architecture, these approaches do not generalize well the problem at hand. This paper proposes a novel adversarial training framework to address this shortcoming, b…
Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学）
Predictive monitoring of business processes is concerned with the prediction of ongoing cases on a business process. Lately, the popularity of deep learning techniques has propitiated an ever-growing set of approaches focused on predictive monitoring based on these techniques. However, the high disparity of process logs and experimental setups used to evaluate these approaches makes it especially difficult to make a fair comparison. Furthermore, it also difficults the selection of the most suitable approach to solve a specific problem. In this paper, we provide both a systematic literature rev…
The field of predictive process monitoring focuses on case-level models to predict a single specific outcome such as a particular objective, (remaining) time, or next activity/remaining sequence. Recently, a longer-horizon, model-wide approach has been proposed in the form of process model forecasting, which predicts the future state of a whole process model through the forecasting of all activity-to-activity relations at once using time series forecasting. This paper introduces the concept of \emph{predictive process model monitoring} which sits in the middle of both predictive process monito…
RWTH Aachen University（亚琛工业大学）；Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；Fraunhofer FIT（弗劳恩霍夫应用信息技术研究所）
Predictive process monitoring is a subfield of process mining that aims to estimate case or event features for running process instances. Such predictions are of significant interest to the process stakeholders. However, state-of-the-art methods for predictive monitoring require the training of complex machine learning models, which is often inefficient. This paper proposes an instance selection procedure that allows sampling training process instances for prediction models. We show that our sampling method allows for a significant increase of training speed for next activity prediction method…
paluno - The Ruhr Institute for Software Technology（帕鲁诺——鲁尔软件技术研究所）
Predictive business process monitoring increasingly leverages sophisticated prediction models. Although sophisticated models achieve consistently higher prediction accuracy than simple models, one major drawback is their lack of interpretability, which limits their adoption in practice. We thus see growing interest in explainable predictive business process monitoring, which aims to increase the interpretability of prediction models. Existing solutions focus on giving factual explanations.While factual explanations can be helpful, humans typically do not ask why a particular prediction was mad…
Centro Singular de Investigación en Tecnoloxías Intelixentes (CiTIUS), Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学智能技术研究中心（CiTIUS））；Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学）；Departamento de Electrónica e Computación, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学电子与计算系）
Predictive monitoring of business processes is a subfield of process mining that aims to predict, among other things, the characteristics of the next event or the sequence of next events. Although multiple approaches based on deep learning have been proposed, mainly recurrent neural networks and convolutional neural networks, none of them really exploit the structural information available in process models. This paper proposes an approach based on graph convolutional networks and recurrent neural networks that uses information directly from the process model. An experimental evaluation on rea…
Università di Trieste（的里雅斯特大学）；Saarland University（萨尔大学）；Royal Holloway University（伦敦大学皇家霍洛威学院）
We consider the problem of predictive monitoring (PM), i.e., predicting at runtime future violations of a system from the current state. We work under the most realistic settings where only partial and noisy observations of the state are available at runtime. Such settings directly affect the accuracy and reliability of the reachability predictions, jeopardizing the safety of the system. In this work, we present a learning-based method for PM that produces accurate and reliable reachability predictions despite partial observability (PO). We build on Neural Predictive Monitoring (NPM), a PM met…
German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI)（德国人工智能研究中心）；Saarland University（萨尔大学）
This study proposes an innovative explainable predictive quality analytics solution to facilitate data-driven decision-making for process planning in manufacturing by combining process mining, machine learning, and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods. For this purpose, after integrating the top-floor and shop-floor data obtained from various enterprise information systems, a deep learning model was applied to predict the process outcomes. Since this study aims to operationalize the delivered predictive insights by embedding them into decision-making processes, it is essential to …
RWTH Aachen University（亚琛工业大学）；Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；Fraunhofer FIT（弗劳恩霍夫应用信息技术研究所）
Predictive process monitoring is a subfield of process mining that aims to estimate case or event features for running process instances. Such predictions are of significant interest to the process stakeholders. However, most of the state-of-the-art methods for predictive monitoring require the training of complex machine learning models, which is often inefficient. Moreover, most of these methods require a hyper-parameter optimization that requires several repetitions of the training process which is not feasible in many real-life applications. In this paper, we propose an instance selection …
Predictive monitoring -- making predictions about future states and monitoring if the predicted states satisfy requirements -- offers a promising paradigm in supporting the decision making of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). Existing works of predictive monitoring mostly focus on monitoring individual predictions rather than sequential predictions. We develop a novel approach for monitoring sequential predictions generated from Bayesian Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) that can capture the inherent uncertainty in CPS, drawing on insights from our study of real-world CPS datasets. We propose a new…
Ulm University（乌尔姆大学）；Mansoura University（曼苏拉大学）；German University in Cairo（开罗德国大学）
Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) has been integrated into process mining tools as a value-adding task. PPM provides useful predictions on the further execution of the running business processes. To this end, machine learning-based techniques are widely employed in the context of PPM. In order to gain stakeholders trust and advocacy of PPM predictions, eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods are employed in order to compensate for the lack of transparency of most efficient predictive models. Even when employed under the same settings regarding data, preprocessing techniques, and ML…
Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；Queensland University of Technology（昆士兰科技大学）；University of Tartu（塔尔图大学）
Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we s…
Leveraging Data Augmentation and Siamese Learning for Predictive Process Monitoring
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands（数学与计算机科学系，埃因霍温理工大学，荷兰）；Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Padua, Italy（数学与计算机科学系，帕多瓦大学，意大利）
This work presents a proposal for a wireless sensor network for participatory sensing, with IoT sensing devices developed especially for monitoring and predicting air quality, as alternatives of high cost meteorological stations. The system, called pmSensing, aims to measure particulate material. A validation is done by comparing the data collected by the prototype with data from stations. The comparison shows that the results are close, which can enable low-cost solutions to the problem. The system still presents a predictive analysis using recurrent neural networks, in this case the LSTM-RNN…
From Data Lifting to Continuous Risk Estimation: A Process-Aware Pipeline for Predictive Monitoring of Clinical Pathways
Department of Informatics, University of Bari Aldo Moro（巴里阿尔多·莫罗大学信息学院）；Department of Engineering, University of Sannio（萨尼奥大学工程学院）；Department of Economy and Law, UnitelmaSapienza University（单位elma萨皮恩扎大学经济法学院）
Centro Singular de Investigación en Tecnoloxías Intelixentes (CiTIUS)（智能技术单一研究中心（CiTIUS））；Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥德孔波斯特拉大学）
Predictive monitoring is a subfield of process mining that aims to predict how a running case will unfold in the future. One of its main challenges is forecasting the sequence of activities that will occur from a given point in time -- suffix prediction -- . Most approaches to the suffix prediction problem learn to predict the suffix by learning how to predict the next activity only, not learning from the whole suffix during the training phase. This paper proposes a novel architecture based on an encoder-decoder model with an attention mechanism that decouples the representation learning of th…
Research Centre for Information Systems Engineering（信息系统工程研究中心）
The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and noise-induced observational uncertainty. Bayesian neural networks use solid mathematical foundations to learn the model uncertainties of their predictions. The observational uncertainty can be calculated by adding one layer to these networks and augmenting their loss functions. Our contribution is to apply these uncertainty concepts to predictive process monito…
PreAct-Bench: Benchmarking Predictive Monitoring in LLMs
King’s College London（伦敦国王学院）；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学）；Thomson Reuters Foundational Research（汤姆森路透基础研究）；Imperial College London（伦敦帝国学院）；The Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
In many domains, the previous decade was characterized by increasing data volumes and growing complexity of computational workloads, creating new demands for highly data-parallel computing in distributed systems. Effective operation of these systems is challenging when facing uncertainties about the performance of jobs and tasks under varying resource configurations, e.g., for scheduling and resource allocation. We survey predictive performance modeling (PPM) approaches to estimate performance metrics such as execution duration, required memory or wait times of future jobs and tasks based on p…
German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI)（德国人工智能研究中心）；Saarland University（萨尔大学）
The contemporary process-aware information systems possess the capabilities to record the activities generated during the process execution. To leverage these process specific fine-granular data, process mining has recently emerged as a promising research discipline. As an important branch of process mining, predictive business process management, pursues the objective to generate forward-looking, predictive insights to shape business processes. In this study, we propose a conceptual framework sought to establish and promote understanding of decision-making environment, underlying business pro…
Predictive business process monitoring focuses on predicting future characteristics of a running process using event logs. The foresight into process execution promises great potentials for efficient operations, better resource management, and effective customer services. Deep learning-based approaches have been widely adopted in process mining to address the limitations of classical algorithms for solving multiple problems, especially the next event and remaining-time prediction tasks. Nevertheless, designing a deep neural architecture that performs competitively across various tasks is chall…
Time-Aware and Transition-Semantic Graph Neural Networks for Interpretable Predictive Business Process Monitoring
College of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, Khalifa University（卡利法大学计算与数学科学学院）；Department of Computer Science, Università degli Studi di Milano（米兰大学计算机科学系）
Runtime Monitoring of Perception-Based Autonomous Systems via Embedding Temporal Logic
Software and Societal Systems Department（软件与社会系统部门）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；General Robotics（通用机器人）；Aeronautics and Astronautics Department（航空与航天系）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）
Predictive business process monitoring (PBPM) aims to predict future process behavior during ongoing process executions based on event log data. Especially, techniques for the next activity and timestamp prediction can help to improve the performance of operational business processes. Recently, many PBPM solutions based on deep learning were proposed by researchers. Due to the sequential nature of event log data, a common choice is to apply recurrent neural networks with long short-term memory (LSTM) cells. We argue, that the elapsed time between events is informative. However, current PBPM te…
An Innovative Next Activity Prediction Using Process Entropy and Dynamic Attribute-Wise-Transformer in Predictive Business Process Monitoring
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Computer Science, University of Victoria（维多利亚大学工程与计算机科学学院电气与计算机工程系）；Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Computer Science, University of Victoria（维多利亚大学工程与计算机科学学院机械工程系）
The real-time prediction of business processes using historical event data is an important capability of modern business process monitoring systems. Existing process prediction methods are able to also exploit the data perspective of recorded events, in addition to the control-flow perspective. However, while well-structured numerical or categorical attributes are considered in many prediction techniques, almost no technique is able to utilize text documents written in natural language, which can hold information critical to the prediction task. In this paper, we illustrate the design, impleme…
Structural Positional Encoding for knowledge integration in transformer-based medical process monitoring
Laboratorio Integrato di Intelligenza Artificiale e Informatica in Medicina DAIRI（人工智能与医学信息整合实验室DAIRI）；Azienda Ospedaliera SS. Antonio e Biagio e Cesare Arrigo（安东尼和比阿乔和卡雷罗医院）
Time series sequence prediction and modelling has proven to be a challenging endeavor in real world datasets. Two key issues are the multi-dimensionality of data and the interaction of independent dimensions forming a latent output signal, as well as the representation of multi-dimensional temporal data inside of a predictive model. This paper proposes a multi-branch deep neural network approach to tackling the aforementioned problems by modelling a latent state vector representation of data windows through the use of a recurrent autoencoder branch and subsequently feeding the trained latent v…
