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arXiv 2407.01758eess.SYcs.SY
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考虑可再生能源并网的气候极端事件期间级联停电量化研究

Quantifying cascading power outages during climate extremes considering renewable energy integration

Luo Xu, Ning Lin, H. Vincent Poor, Dazhi Xi, A. T. D. Perera

AI总结:

本文提出耦合气候-能源级联停电模型,以2022年飓风菲奥娜导致波多黎各全系统停电为验证,揭示关键组件早期失效反而增强系统韧性的新模式,并发现用户侧太阳能并网超过45%临界水平且缺乏灵活性资源时会加剧故障概率。

摘要:

气候极端事件(如飓风)与对环境敏感的可再生能源大规模并网相结合,可能加剧大范围停电的风险。我们引入了一个用于级联停电的耦合气候-能源模型,该模型全面捕捉了演变中的气候极端事件对可再生能源发电以及输配电网的影响。该模型通过2022年飓风菲奥娜期间波多黎各的灾难性大停电进行了验证,这是首次拥有完整天气诱发停电记录的全系统停电事件。该模型呈现了一种现有最先进模型未能捕捉到的新型韧性模式,并揭示出某些关键组件的早期失效反而出人意料地增强了整体系统韧性。对各种用户侧太阳能并网场景的敏感性分析表明,较低的并网水平(低于45%,包括当前水平)在此次事件中对系统韧性的影响极小。然而,在没有额外灵活性资源的情况下超过这一临界水平,可能会因大幅扩大的能量不平衡而加剧故障概率。

英文摘要:

Climate extremes, such as hurricanes, combined with large-scale integration of environment-sensitive renewables, could exacerbate the risk of widespread power outages. We introduce a coupled climate-energy model for cascading power outages, which comprehensively captures the impacts of evolving climate extremes on renewable generation, and transmission and distribution networks. The model is validated by the 2022 Puerto Rico catastrophic blackout during Hurricane Fiona, the first-ever system-wide blackout event with complete weather-induced outage records. The model presents a novel resilience pattern that was not captured by the present state-of-the-art models and reveals that early failure of certain critical components surprisingly enhances overall system resilience. Sensitivity analysis of various behind-the-meter solar integration scenarios demonstrates that lower integration levels (below 45%, including the current level) exhibit minimal impact on system resilience in this event. However, surpassing this critical level without additional flexibility resources can exacerbate the failure probability due to substantially enlarged energy imbalances.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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