用大偏差理论分析电力系统中的大频率扰动
Analyzing large frequency disruptions in power systems using large deviations theory
摘要：
我们提出了一种方法，用于确定最可能的原因，在传统的发电机停机和可再生能源的波动，电力系统频率达到一个预定的水平，被认为是不可接受的系统运营商。我们的吝啬模型的系统频率采用初级和次级控制机制，并假设传统的停电发生根据泊松过程和可再生的波动遵循扩散过程。我们利用基于大偏差理论的方法，该方法输出频率从其期望水平大幅偏移的最可能原因。这些结果产生的洞察力，目前的水平，可再生能源发电并没有显着增加系统的脆弱性方面的频偏相对于传统的故障。然而，对于大范围的模型参数，随着可再生能源渗透率的增加，这种脆弱性可能会出现。
英文摘要：
We propose a method for determining the most likely cause, in terms of conventional generator outages and renewable fluctuations, of power system frequency reaching a predetermined level that is deemed unacceptable to the system operator. Our parsimonious model of system frequency incorporates primary and secondary control mechanisms, and supposes that conventional outages occur according to a Poisson process and renewable fluctuations follow a diffusion process. We utilize a large deviations theory based approach that outputs the most likely cause of a large excursion of frequency from its desired level. These results yield the insight that current levels of renewable power generation do not significantly increase system vulnerability in terms of frequency deviations relative to conventional failures. However, for a large range of model parameters it is possible that such vulnerabilities may arise as renewable penetration increases.
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