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arXiv 2303.14972astro-ph.SRphysics.space-ph
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HelioCast:基于日冕白光观测的日球层预报。I. 太阳极小期条件

HelioCast: heliospheric forecasting based on white-light observations of the solar corona. I. Solar minimum conditions

Victor Réville, Nicolas Poirier, Athanasios Kouloumvakos, Alexis P. Rouillard, Rui F. Pinto, Naïs Fargette, Mikel Indurain, Raphaël Fournon, Théo James, Raphaël Pobeda, Cyril Scoul

AI总结:

提出基于日冕白光观测和PLUTO代码的三维MHD日球层预报模型HelioCast,通过经验推导太阳风背景特性定义边界条件,在太阳极小期评估中能较好重现高速流,表现优于完整MHD模型。

摘要:

我们提出了一种用于空间天气预报的新型三维MHD日球层模型,该模型由日冕白光观测定义的边界条件驱动。该模型基于MHD代码PLUTO,并受0.1 au处太阳风背景特性的经验推导约束。此经验方法利用白光观测来估计日球层电流片的位置。随后,根据必要的MHD属性(速度、密度和温度)与到电流片距离之间的预定义关系,定义运行HelioCast所需的边界条件。我们在2018年上半年的六个Carrington自转期间评估了该模型的准确性。使用逐点指标和基于事件的分析,我们评估了模型在改变日球层电流片周围慢太阳风层角宽度时的性能。我们还将该经验技术与两个经过充分测试的日冕模型进行了比较:Multi-VP和WindPredict-AW。我们发现该方法非常适合重现高速流,并且在参数选择得当的情况下,表现优于完整MHD模型。尽管如此,该模型仍存在局限性,在太阳活动上升期和极大期可能会进一步恶化。

英文摘要:

We present a new 3D MHD heliospheric model for space-weather forecasting driven by boundary conditions defined from white-light observations of the solar corona. The model is based on the MHD code PLUTO, constrained by an empirical derivation of the solar wind background properties at 0.1au. This empirical method uses white-light observations to estimate the position of the heliospheric current sheet. The boundary conditions necessary to run HelioCast are then defined from pre-defined relations between the necessary MHD properties (speed, density and temperature) and the distance to the current sheet. We assess the accuracy of the model over six Carrington rotations during the first semester of 2018. Using point-by-point metrics and event based analysis, we evaluate the performances of our model varying the angular width of the slow solar wind layer surrounding the heliospheric current sheet. We also compare our empirical technique with two well tested models of the corona: Multi-VP and WindPredict-AW. We find that our method is well suited to reproduce high speed streams, and does -- for well chosen parameters -- better than full MHD models. The model shows, nonetheless, limitations that could worsen for rising and maximum solar activity.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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