Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations
Tanja Amerstorfer, Jürgen Hinterreiter, Martin A. Reiss, Christian Möstl, Jackie A. Davies, Rachel L. Bailey, Andreas J. Weiss, Mateja Dumbović, Maike Bauer, Ut… 展开作者
Tanja Amerstorfer, Jürgen Hinterreiter, Martin A. Reiss, Christian Möstl, Jackie A. Davies, Rachel L. Bailey, Andreas J. Weiss, Mateja Dumbović, Maike Bauer, Ute V. Amerstorfer, Richard A. Harrison
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25 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables; This article also appears in: Heliophysics and Space Weather Studies from the Sun-Earth Lagrange Points
In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide-angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from close to the Sun out to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that by exploiting this capability, instead of relying on coronagraph observations only, it is possible to improve today's CME arrival time predictions. The ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes that the CME frontal shape within the ecliptic plane is an ellipse, and allows the CME to adjust to the ambient solar wind speed, i.e. it is drag-based. ELEvoHI is used to perform ensemble simulations by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary conditions that are consistent with the observations made by HI. In this work, we evaluate different set-ups of the model by performing hindcasts for 15 well-defined isolated CMEs that occurred when STEREO was near L4/5, between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2011. In this way, we find a mean absolute error of between $6.2\pm7.9$ h and $9.9\pm13$ h depending on the model set-up used. ELEvoHI is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 or L1. It can also be used with near real-time STEREO-A HI beacon data to provide CME arrival predictions during the next $\sim7$ years when STEREO-A is observing the Sun-Earth space.
The evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space is still not well understood. As a consequence, accurate arrival time and arrival speed forecasts are an unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, we present the ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) and introduce a deformable front to this model. ELEvoHI relies on heliospheric imagers (HI) observations to obtain the kinematics of a CME. With the newly developed deformable front, the model is able to react to the ambient solar wind conditions during the entire propagatio…
Streamer-blowout coronal mass ejections (SBO-CMEs) are the dominant CME population during solar minimum. Although they are typically slow and lack clear low-coronal signatures, they can cause geomagnetic storms. With the aid of extrapolated coronal fields and remote observations of the off-limb low corona, we study the initiation of an SBO-CME preceded by consecutive CME eruptions consistent with a multi-stage sympathetic breakout scenario. From inner-heliospheric Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations, it is evident that the SBO-CME is interacting with the heliospheric magnetic field and plasm…
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is an inhomogeneous structure consisting of different features which evolve differently with the propagation of the CME. Simultaneous heliospheric tracking of different observed features of a CME can improve our understanding about relative forces acting on them. It also helps to estimate accurately their arrival times at the Earth and identify them in in- situ data. This also enables to find association between remotely observed features and in-situ observations near the Earth. In this paper, we attempt to continuously track two density enhanced features, one at …
We investigate the source eruption, propagation and expansion characteristics, and heliospheric impacts of the 2020 November 29 coronal mass ejection (CME) and associated shock, using remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple spacecraft. A potential--field source--surface model is employed to examine the coronal magnetic fields surrounding the source region. The CME and associated shock are tracked from the early stage to the outer corona using extreme ultraviolet and white light observations. Forward models are applied to determine the structures and kinematics of the CME and the …
A powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) occurred on 2017 September 10 near the end of the declining phase of the historically weak solar cycle 24. We obtain new insights concerning the geometry and kinematics of CME-driven shocks in relation to their heliospheric impacts from the optimal, multi-spacecraft observations of the eruption. The shock, which together with the CME driver can be tracked from the early stage to the outer corona, shows a large oblate structure produced by the vast expansion of the ejecta. The expansion speeds of the shock along the radial and lateral directions are much l…
We present a study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which impacted one of the STEREO spacecraft between January 2008 and early 2010. We focus our study on 20 CMEs which were observed remotely by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard the other STEREO spacecraft up to large heliocentric distances. We compare the predictions of the Fixed-Phi and Harmonic Mean (HM) fitting methods, which only differ by the assumed geometry of the CME. It is possible to use these techniques to determine from remote-sensing observations the CME direction of propagation, arrival time and final speed which are compar…
Geometric modelling of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is a widely used tool for assessing their kinematic evolution. Furthermore, techniques based on geometric modelling, such as ELEvoHI, are being developed into forecast tools for space weather prediction. These models assume that solar wind structure does not affect the evolution of the CME, which is an unquantified source of uncertainty. We use a large number of Cone CME simulations with the HUXt solar wind model to quantify the scale of uncertainty introduced into geometric modelling and the ELEvoHI CME arrival times by solar wind structure…
The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, $w$ and the drag parameter $γ$. A very short computational time of DBM ($<$ 0.01s) allowed us to develop the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that takes into account the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to…
In 2010 May 23-24, SDO observed the launch of two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which were subsequently tracked by the SECCHI suite onboard STEREO. Using the COR2 coronagraphs and the heliospheric imagers (HIs), the initial direction of both CMEs is determined to be slightly west of the Sun-Earth line. We derive the CME kinematics, including the evolution of the CME expansion until 0.4 AU. We find that, during the interaction, the second CME decelerates from a speed above 500 km/s to 380 km/s the speed of the leading edge of the first CME. STEREO observes a complex structure compos…
Using data from the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard STEREO, it is possible to derive the direction of propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in addition to their speed with a variety of methods. For CMEs observed by both STEREO spacecraft, it is possible to derive their direction using simultaneous observations from the twin spacecraft and also, using observations from only one spacecraft with fitting methods. This makes it possible to test and compare different analyses techniques. In this article, we propose a new fitting method based on observations from one spacecraft, which we co…
Context. We study two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed between April 1-2, 2019 by both the inner Wide-Field Imager for Parker Solar Probe (WISPR-I) and the inner heliospheric imager (HI-1) on board STEREO-A. This is the first study of CME observations from two viewpoints in similar directions but at considerably different solar distances. Aims. Our objective is to understand how the PSP observations affect the CME kinematics, especially due to its proximity to the Sun. Methods. We estimate the CME positions, speeds, accelerations, propagation directions and longitudinal deflections using…
The Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of coronal mass ejections (CME) at Earth is a key parameter due to the space weather phenomena associated with the CME arrival, such as intense geomagnetic storms. Despite the incremental use of new instrumentation and the development of novel methodologies, ToA estimated errors remain above 10 hours on average. Here, we investigate the prediction of the ToA of CMEs using observations from heliospheric imagers, i.e., from heliocentric distances higher than those covered by the existent coronagraphs. In order to perform this work we analyse 14 CMEs observed by the heli…
A study of the kinematics and arrival times of CMEs at Earth, derived from time-elongation maps (J-maps) constructed from STEREO/Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations, provides an opportunity to understand the heliospheric evolution of CMEs in general. We implement various reconstruction techniques, based on the use of time-elongation profiles of propagating CMEs viewed from single or multiple vantage points, to estimate the dynamics of three geo-effective CMEs. We use the kinematic properties, derived from analysis of the elongation profiles, as inputs to the Drag Based Model for the distance…
The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HI) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI-based methods are able to forecast arrival times and speeds at any target and use the advantage of tracing a CME's path of propagation up to 1 AU. In our study we use the ELEvoHI model for CME arrival prediction together with an ensemble approach to derive uncertainties in the modeled arrival time and impact speed. The CME from 3 November 2010 is analyzed by performing 339 mode…
The prediction of the arrival time for fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their associated shocks is highly desirable in space weather studies. In this paper, we use two shock propagation models, i.e. Data Guided Shock Time Of Arrival (DGSTOA) and Data Guided Shock Propagation Model (DGSPM), to predict the kinematical evolution of interplanetary shocks associated with fast CMEs. DGSTOA is based on the similarity theory of shock waves in the solar wind reference frame, and DGSPM on the non-similarity theory in the stationary reference frame. The inputs are the kinematics of the CME front at…
A data-driven physics-based transport model of solar energetic particles accelerated by coronal mass ejection shocks propagating through the solar coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields
The arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the vicinity of the Earth is one of the most important parameters in determining space weather. We have used a new approach to predicting this parameter. First, in our study, we have introduced a new definition of the speed of ejection. It can be considered as the maximum speed that the CME achieves during the expansion into the interplanetary medium. Additionally, in our research we have used not only observations from the SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft but also from Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) spa…
We present an advance towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over 2/3 of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by 5 in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60 degree longitudi…
Ensemble modeling of CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME arrival. The real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the CCMC and executed in real-time. The current implementation evaluates the sensitivity of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations of CME propagation to initial CME parameters. We discuss the results of real-time ensemble simulations for a total of 35 CME events betwee…
The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements at STEREO-A, STEREO-B, and Ear…
Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and subsequent geomagnetic impacts of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) at Earth is an important objective for space weather forecasting agencies. Recently, the CME Arrival and Impact working team has made significant progress towards defining community-agreed metrics and validation methods to assess the current state of CME modeling capabilities. This will allow the community to quantify our current capabilities and track progress in models over time. Firstly, it is crucial that the community focuses on the collection of the necessary metadata for transpar…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause various disturbances of the space environment; therefore, forecasting their arrival time is very important. However, forecasting accuracy is hindered by limited CME observations in interplanetary space. This study investigates the accuracy of CME arrival times at the Earth forecasted by three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations based on interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations. In this system, CMEs are approximated as spheromaks with various initial speeds. Ten MHD simulations with different CME initial speed are tested, and the den…
Using a refined setup process, we simulated the propagation of six observed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) with the 2012 Block-Adaptive-Tree-Solarwind-Roe-Upwind-Scheme (BATS-R-US) code from the Sun to the Earth or STEREO A and compared the outputs with observations. A linear relation between the average CME speed below 6 solar radii and the flux rope current is demonstrated and used to tune the simulations. The simulations correctly predict if and when an observable CME shock reaches one astronomical unit (AU). The arrival time predictions of the CME shocks at 1 AU have an accuracy of 0.9 $\pm…
Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, Bz. Predicting the strength and duration of Bz inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, which forms the so-called Bz problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, Bz and the resulting Dst index at Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (< 1AU). On 2012 June 12-16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting…
We present an analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) on board NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. Between August 2008 and April 2014 we identify 273 CMEs that are observed simultaneously, by the HIs on both spacecraft. For each CME, we track the observed leading edge, as a function of time, from both vantage points, and apply the Stereoscopic Self-Similar Expansion (SSSE) technique to infer their propagation throughout the inner heliosphere. The technique is unable to accurately locate CMEs when their observed leadin…
White light images of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are projections on the plane-of-sky (POS). As a result, CME kinematics are subject to projection effects. The error in the true (deprojected) speed of CMEs is one of the main causes of uncertainty to Space Weather forecasts, since all estimates of the CME Time-of-Arrival (ToA) at a certain location within the heliosphere require, as input, the CME speed. We use single viewpoint observations for 1037 flare-CME events between 1996-2017 and propose a new approach for the correction of the CME speed assuming radial propagation from the flare site…
Improving the Arrival Time Estimates of Coronal Mass Ejections by Using Magnetohydrodynamic Ensemble Modeling, Heliospheric Imager data, and Machine Learning
Accurately predicting the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Earth based on remote images is of critical significance in the study of space weather. In this paper, we make a statistical study of 21 Earth directed CMEs, exploring in particular the relationship between CME initial speeds and transit times. The initial speed of a CME is obtained by fitting the CME with the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model and is thus free of projection effects. We then use the drag force model to fit results of the transit time versus the initial speed. By adopting different drag regimes, i.e., the …
The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model which can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, covering ensemble modelling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds, the …
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), as they can inject a large amounts of mass and magnetic flux into the interplanetary space, are the primary source of space weather phenomena on the Earth. The present review first briefly introduces the solar surface signatures of the origins of CMEs and then focuses on the attempts to understand the kinematic evolution of CMEs from the Sun to the Earth. CMEs have been observed in the solar corona in white-light from a series of space missions over the last five decades. In particular, LASCO/SOHO has provided almost continuous coverage of CMEs for more than two …
We investigate how coronal mass ejections (CMEs) propagate through, and interact with, the inner heliosphere between the Sun and Earth, a key question in CME research and space weather forecasting. CME Sun-to-Earth kinematics are constrained by combining wide-angle heliospheric imaging observations, interplanetary radio type II bursts and in situ measurements from multiple vantage points. We select three events for this study, the 2012 January 19, 23, and March 7 CMEs. Different from previous event studies, this work attempts to create a general picture for CME Sun-to-Earth propagation and com…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) drive space weather activity at Earth and throughout the solar system. Current CME-related space weather predictions rely on information reconstructed from coronagraphs, sometimes from only a single viewpoint, to drive a simple interplanetary propagation model, which only gives the arrival time or limited additional information. We present the coupling of three established models into OSPREI (Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information), a new tool that describes Sun-to-Earth CME behavior, including the location, orientation, size, shape, speed, arrival time, an…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are one of the main drivers of disturbances in the interplanetary space. Strong CMEs, when directed towards the Earth, cause geo-magnetic storms upon interacting with the magnetic field of the Earthand can cause significant damage to our planet and affect everyday life. As such, efficient space weather prediction tools are necessary to forecast the arrival and impact of CME eruptions. Recently, a new heliospheric model Icarus was developed based on MPI-AMRVAC, which is a 3D ideal MHD model for the solar wind and CME propagation, and it introduces advanced numerica…
Flux-rope-based magnetohydrodynamic modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a promising tool for the prediction of the CME arrival time and magnetic field at Earth. In this work, we introduce a constant-turn flux rope model and use it to simulate the 12-July-2012 16:48 CME in the inner heliosphere. We constrain the initial parameters of this CME using the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model and the reconnected flux in post-eruption arcades. We correctly reproduce all the magnetic field components of the CME at Earth, with an arrival time error of approximately 1 hour. We further estim…
During 2011 February 13 to 15, three Earth-directed CMEs launched in successively were recorded as limb CMEs by coronagraphs (COR) of STEREO. These CMEs provided an opportunity to study their geometrical and kinematic evolution from multiple vantage points. In this paper, we examine the differences in geometrical evolution of slow and fast speed CMEs during their propagation in the heliosphere. We also study their interaction and collision using STEREO/SECCHI COR and Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations. We have found evidence of interaction and collision between the CMEs of February 15 and 1…
We discuss features of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that are specific to heliospheric observations at large elongation angles. Our analysis is focused on a series of two eruptions that occurred on 2007 January 24-25, which were tracked by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard STEREO. Using a three-dimensional (3-D) magneto-hydrodynamic simulation of these ejections with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), we illustrate how the combination of the 3-D nature of CMEs, solar rotation, and geometry associated with the Thomson sphere results in complex effects in the brightness observed b…
We discuss how simultaneous observations by multiple heliospheric imagers can provide some important information about the azimuthal properties of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere. We propose two simple models of CME geometry that can be used to derive information about the azimuthal deflection and the azimuthal expansion of CMEs from SECCHI/HI observations. We apply these two models to four CMEs well-observed by both STEREO spacecraft during the year 2008. We find that in three cases, the joint STEREO-A and B observations are consistent with CMEs moving radially outward. In so…
In a thorough study, we investigate the origin of a remarkable plasma and magnetic field configuration observed in situ on June 22, 2011 near L1, which appears to be a magnetic ejecta (ME) and a shock signature engulfed by a solar wind high-speed stream (HSS). We identify the signatures as an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with a C7.7 flare on June 21, 2011, and its interaction with a HSS, which emanates from a coronal hole (CH) close to the launch site of the CME. The results indicate that the major interaction between the CME and the HSS starts at a height of 1.3 Rsun…
Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last six years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties…
An unexpected strong geomagnetic storm occurred on 2018 August 26, which was caused by a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) from a gradual eruption of a large quiet-region filament. We investigate the eruption and propagation characteristics of this CME in relation to the strong geomagnetic storm with remote sensing and in situ observations. Coronal magnetic fields around the filament are extrapolated and compared with EUV observations. We determine the propagation direction and tilt angle of the CME flux rope near the Sun using a graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model and the Sun-to-Earth kine…
Although coronal mass ejections (CMEs) resembling flux ropes generally expand self-similarly, deformations along their fronts have been reported in observations and simulations. We present evidence of one CME becoming deformed after a period of self-similarly expansion in the corona. The event was observed by multiple white-light imagers on January 20-22, 2021. The change in shape is evident in observations from the heliospheric imagers from the Wide-Field Imager for Solar Probe Plus (WISPR), which observe this CME for $\sim$ 44 hours. We reconstruct the CME using forward-fitting models. In th…
On 2017-09-10, solar energetic particles (SEPs) originating from the active region 12673 were registered as a ground level enhancement (GLE) at Earth and the biggest GLE on the surface of Mars as observed by the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) since the landing of the Curiosity rover in August 2012. Based on multi-point coronagraph images, we identify the initial 3D kinematics of an extremely fast CME and its shock front as well as another 2 CMEs launched hours earlier (with moderate speeds) using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model. These three CMEs interacted as they propagated o…
In recent years, ensemble modeling has been widely employed in space weather to estimate uncertainties in forecasts. We here focus on the ensemble modeling of CME arrival times and arrival velocities using a drag-based model, which is well-suited for this purpose due to its simplicity and low computational cost. Although ensemble techniques have previously been applied to the drag-based model, it is still not clear how to best determine distributions for its input parameters, namely the drag parameter and the solar wind speed. The aim of this work is to evaluate statistical distributions for t…
The radial speed of a coronal mass ejection (CME) determines the shock-driving capability of a CME as indicated by the presence of a type II radio burst. Here we report on the April 18, 2014 CME that was associated with a type II radio burst in the metric and interplanetary domains. We used the radio-burst data provided by the San Vito Solar Observatory of the Radio Solar Telescope Network and data from the Wind spacecraft. The CME is a full halo in the field of view of the coronagraphs on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). The CME was also observed by the coronagraphs on boa…
Being able to accurately predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth has been a long-standing problem in space weather research and operations. In this study, we use the ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Images (ELEvoHI) to predict the arrival time and speed of 10 CME events that were observed by HI on the STEREO-A spacecraft between 2010 and 2020. Additionally, we introduce a Python tool for downloading and preparing STEREO-HI data, as well as tracking CMEs. In contrast to most previous studies, we use not only science data, which has a relatively high spatial an…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) influence the interplanetary environment over vast distances in the solar system by injecting huge clouds of fast solar plasma and energetic particles (SEPs). A number of fundamental questions remain about how SEPs are produced, but current understanding points to CME-driven shocks and compressions in the solar corona. At the same time, unprecedented remote and in situ (Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter) solar observations are becoming available to constrain existing theories. Here we present a general method for recognition and tracking on solar images of objects…
