arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2303.07930eess.SYcs.SYmath.PRstat.AP
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电力系统典型韧性事件的模型、指标及其公式

Models, metrics, and their formulas for typical electric power system resilience events

Ian Dobson

AI总结:

本文针对电力系统韧性事件,基于 Poisson 过程模型参数推导了性能曲线面积、最低点和持续时间等标准韧性指标的明确公式,并利用北美输电事件验证了方法。

摘要:

针对电力系统韧性事件,依据停电和恢复过程的速率定义了 Poisson 过程模型。这些停电和恢复过程能直接得出追踪韧性事件演变的性能曲线,而性能曲线的面积、最低点和持续时间是标准的韧性指标。本文通过分析平均性能曲线的面积、最低点和持续时间来研究典型的韧性事件。基于 Poisson 过程模型参数推导出了这些指标明确且直观的公式,且这些参数可从公用事业数据中估计。这阐明了典型韧性事件指标的计算方法,并揭示了其依赖因素。指标的推导采用了对数正态、指数或恒定的恢复速率。通过一个典型的北美输电事件对该方法进行了说明。对于经验性的电力系统数据,面积指标也获得了同样优美的公式。

英文摘要:

Poisson process models are defined in terms of their rates for outage and restore processes in power system resilience events. These outage and restore processes easily yield the performance curves that track the evolution of resilience events, and the area, nadir, and duration of the performance curves are standard resilience metrics. This letter analyzes typical resilience events by analyzing the area, nadir, and duration of mean performance curves. Explicit and intuitive formulas for these metrics are derived in terms of the Poisson process model parameters, and these parameters can be estimated from utility data. This clarifies the calculation of metrics of typical resilience events, and shows what they depend on. The metric formulas are derived with lognormal, exponential, or constant rates of restoration. The method is illustrated with a typical North American transmission event. Similarly nice formulas are obtained for the area metric for empirical power system data.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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