在应对前所未有的不确定性时保持可靠性:电力部门资源充足性进展的综合与指南
Maintaining reliability while navigating unprecedented uncertainty: a synthesis of and guide to advances in electric sector resource adequacy
AI总结:
针对电网可靠性因传统资源充足性(RA)框架无法适应新型不确定性而受影响的问题,本文概述RA与韧性的关系、应对不确定性的RA评估方法及采购方法,为相关人员提供综合指南。
摘要:
近年来,由于多起高影响停电事件以及未来可能发生更具影响事件的潜在风险,电网可靠性已成为监管机构、规划者和消费者更为关注的问题。这些担忧主要源于已有数十年历史的资源充足性(RA)规划框架未能充分适应规划者当前面临的不确定性类型,包括许多无法合理分配概率分布的深度不确定性来源。目前已有处理RA评估和采购框架中这些新型不确定性的新兴方法,但由于对RA相关术语及韧性这一相关概念缺乏一致理解,且缺乏此类可用方法的综合,这些方法的采用受到了阻碍。本文概述了RA及其与韧性的关系,总结了应对RA评估所面临新兴不确定性类型的可用方法,并概述了在这些不确定性类型背景下将RA付诸实施的采购方法。本文为寻求应对电力系统规划这一更具不确定性的新时代的研究人员和从业者提供了综合与指南。
英文摘要:
The reliability of the electric grid has in recent years become a larger concern for regulators, planners, and consumers due to several high-impact outage events, as well as the potential for even more impactful events in the future. These concerns are largely the result of decades-old resource adequacy (RA) planning frameworks being insufficiently adapted to the current types of uncertainty faced by planners, including many sources of deep uncertainty for which probability distributions cannot be defensibly assigned. There are emerging methodologies for dealing with these new types of uncertainty in RA assessment and procurement frameworks, but their adoption has been hindered by the lack of consistent understanding of terminology related to RA and the related concept of resilience, as well as a lack of syntheses of such available methodologies. Here we provide an overview of RA and its relationship to resilience, a summary of available methods for dealing with emerging types of uncertainty faced by RA assessment, and an an overview of procurement methodologies for operationalizing RA in the context of these types of uncertainty. This paper provides a synthesis and guide for both researchers and practitioners seeking to navigate a new, much more uncertain era of power system planning.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。