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arXiv 2011.00693eess.SYcs.SY
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使用中断和恢复过程统计信息从配电公用事业数据中提取弹性指标

Extracting resilience metrics from distribution utility data using outage and restore process statistics

Nichelle'Le K. Carrington, Ian Dobson, Zhaoyu Wang

摘要:

弹性曲线跟踪事件期间配电网上停电的累积和恢复。我们表明,从公用事业数据产生的弹性曲线总是可以分解成一个中断过程和恢复过程,这些过程一般在时间上重叠。我们使用真实公用事业数据中的许多事件来表征这些过程的统计数据,并根据这些统计数据推导出恢复能力指标的公式,如恢复持续时间,未服务的客户小时数,以及中断和恢复率。这些公式将这些指标的平均值表示为事件中中断次数的函数。我们还给出了一个公式的变化恢复时间,这使我们能够预测最大恢复时间与95%的信心。总的来说,我们给出了一个简单而通用的方法来分解弹性曲线中断和恢复过程,然后展示如何使用这些过程中提取弹性指标从标准的配电系统数据。

英文摘要:

Resilience curves track the accumulation and restoration of outages during an event on an electric distribution grid. We show that a resilience curve generated from utility data can always be decomposed into an outage process and a restore process and that these processes generally overlap in time. We use many events in real utility data to characterize the statistics of these processes, and derive formulas based on these statistics for resilience metrics such as restore duration, customer hours not served, and outage and restore rates. The formulas express the mean value of these metrics as a function of the number of outages in the event. We also give a formula for the variability of restore duration, which allows us to predict a maximum restore duration with 95% confidence. Overall, we give a simple and general way to decompose resilience curves into outage and restore processes and then show how to use these processes to extract resilience metrics from standard distribution system data.

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