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arXiv 2008.05455eess.SYcs.SY
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DER系统的概率弹性--一种仿真辅助优化方法

Probabilistic Resilience of DER systems -- A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Sakshi Mishra, Kate Anderson

摘要:

随着重大电网中断频率的增加,能源系统的弹性变得越来越重要。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种方法来优化背后的米分布式能源系统,以维持一个网站的关键负载在预定义的公用事业停电期间。与固定的系统设计,然后,我们提出了一个停电模拟方法来估计DER系统的弹性潜力,以维持负载超过固定的停电期间-一年的弹性性能分析。我们应用统计分析来评估系统的弹性性能在更广泛的参数问题空间上每小时,每月和每年的基础上。我们提出了一个案例研究,以证明预定义的中断期间对系统的弹性性能的影响。案例研究表明,生存的概率从20%到95%的给定持续时间的随机停电时,停电建模为工作日,而不是一个周末的案例研究建设。

英文摘要:

Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined utility outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We present a case study to demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance of the system. The case study shows that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20 percent to 95 percent when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the case study building.

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