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arXiv 2606.08062eess.SYcs.CRcs.SY

电力系统多维韧性:系统综述、综合指标及在网络物理攻击场景下的验证

Multidimensional Resilience for Electrical Power Systems: Systematic Review, Integrated Index, and Validation under Real-World Cyber-Physical Attack Scenarios

University of Massachusetts Boston(麻省大学波士顿分校)

Isaac Ortega Romero, Ioannis Zografopoulos

AI总结:

本文通过PRISMA 2020综述识别五维韧性缺口,提出多维韧性指数(MDRI)以捕获耦合与放大效应,并在波兰网络攻击场景下验证,发现联合失效导致韧性损失比单维高46倍。

摘要:

能源系统加速脱碳已将电力系统转变为复杂基础设施,面临多种威胁,其相互作用产生传统韧性方法无法捕捉的系统脆弱性。尽管韧性评估已扩展到多个维度,现有研究大多孤立或成对考察这些维度,跨维度耦合尚未充分探索。本研究证明:i) 单维度评估无法捕捉同时发生的跨维度失效所产生的退化;ii) 当物理、运营和数字-网络维度共同受损时,出现非线性放大;iii) 气候和经济-监管压力因素加剧了这种放大。为此,我们采用混合定量方法。通过PRISMA 2020综述及前后向滚雪球方法,识别五个韧性维度(物理、运营、数字-网络、气候-外部和经济-监管)的方法论缺口和未解决的依赖关系。在此基础上,开发了多维韧性指数(MDRI)以捕获内源性耦合和外源性放大效应,并在2025年12月波兰能源基础设施网络攻击场景下进行验证。结果表明,级联和同时失效下的退化程度几乎是孤立应力下的八倍,而外源性条件使退化额外增加近六倍,其中72%的放大由外源性压力因素驱动。综合这些机制,与单向量参考相比,韧性损失增加了46倍。

英文摘要:

The accelerating decarbonization of energy systems has transformed electrical power systems into complex infrastructures exposed to threats whose interactions generate systemic vulnerabilities that conventional resilience approaches fail to capture. Although resilience assessment has expanded across multiple dimensions, existing studies largely examine them in isolation or adjacent pairs, leaving cross-dimensional couplings insufficiently explored. This study demonstrates i) that single-dimension assessments fail to capture the degradation produced by simultaneous cross-dimensional failures, ii) the nonlinear amplification emerging when physical, operational, and digital-cyber dimensions are jointly compromised, and iii) the intensification imposed by climatic and economic-regulatory stressors. To this end, we leverage a hybrid quantitative methodology. A PRISMA 2020 review with backward and forward snowballing identifies methodological gaps and unresolved dependencies across five resilience dimensions: physical, operational, digital-cyber, climatic-external, and economic-regulatory. Following this analysis, a Multidimensional Resilience Index (MDRI) is developed to capture endogenous couplings and exogenous amplification effects and is validated under escalating cyber-physical attack scenarios inspired by the December 2025 attack on Polish energy infrastructure. Results show that degradation under cascading and simultaneous failures is nearly eight times greater than under isolated stress, while exogenous conditions amplify degradation by an additional factor approaching six, with 72% of this amplification driven by exogenous stressors. Combined, these mechanisms produce a 46-fold increase in resilience loss compared to a single-vector reference.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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