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arXiv 2302.14515eess.SYcs.SY
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灵活核电与波动式可再生能源?——脱碳能源系统的技术经济分析

Flexible nuclear power and fluctuating renewables? -- A techno-economic analysis for decarbonized energy systems

Leonard Göke, Alexander Wimmers, Christian von Hirschhausen

AI总结:

该研究针对能源系统脱碳背景,通过多能流能源模型分析完全脱碳系统中核电的成本效益占比,发现即便核电建设成本与工期大幅优化,其在欧洲电力系统的经济占比仍很低,电网、灵活需求与储能是整合波动可再生能源的更优选择。

摘要:

许多国家的政府正考虑新建核电站以支撑能源系统脱碳。一方面,可调度核电站能够补充风电与光伏发电的波动式出力;另一方面,不断攀升的建设成本与工期引发了经济层面的担忧。本文全面梳理了核电的建设成本与工期情况,在此基础上,采用精细化的多能流能源模型,分析完全脱碳能源系统(即不使用任何化石燃料的能源系统)中具备成本效益的核电占比。研究发现,即便逆转历史趋势,核电的隔夜建设成本降至4000美元(2018年币值)/千瓦且建设工期控制在10年以内,核电在欧洲电力生产中具备成本效益的占比也仅约10%。该分析尚未计入核电的社会成本,如事故风险或废物管理成本。核电站必须以接近90%的容量因子非灵活运行才能收回投资成本,这意味着运行灵活性即便在技术上可行,在经济上也不具备可行性。因此,电网基础设施、多能源系统中的灵活需求以及储能,是整合波动式风电与光伏发电更高效的选项。

英文摘要:

Many governments are considering constructing new nuclear power plants to support the decarbonization of the energy system. On the one hand, dispatchable nuclear plants can complement fluctuating generation from wind and PV. On the other hand, escalating construction costs and times raise economic concerns. In this paper, we extensively review construction costs and times. On this basis, we apply a detailed multi-vector energy model to analyze the cost-efficient share of nuclear power in fully decarbonized energy systems, i.e., energy systems that do not utilize any fossil fuels. Our analysis finds that even if, reversing the historical trend, overnight construction costs of nuclear half to 4,000 US-$2018 per kW and construction times remain below ten years, the cost-efficient share of nuclear power in European electricity generation is only around 10%. The analysis still omits the social costs of nuclear power, such as the risk of accidents or waste management. Nuclear plants must operate inflexibly and at capacity factors close to 90% to recover their investment costs, implying that operational flexibility-even if technically possible-is not economically viable. As a result, grid infrastructure, flexible demand in multi-energy systems, and storage are more efficient options for integrating fluctuating wind and photovoltaic generation.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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