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arXiv 2302.13239physics.ao-phmath.OC
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借助热带气旋特征评估北印度洋盆地的最大风半径

Evaluation of the Radius of Maximum Wind over the North Indian Basin with the help of Tropical Cyclone characteristics

Monu Yadav, Laxminarayan Das

AI总结:

本研究针对北印度洋热带气旋最大风半径估算研究不足的问题,采用局部回归模型处理印度气象部门数据缺失,结合历史观测与数学相关性估算RMW,经误差百分比和T检验验证,方法误差范围更优、统计显著性更好。

摘要:

热带气旋(TCs)会对全球多个沿海地区造成毁灭性影响。提前掌握热带气旋的特征(如风向、风速、震中位置、凝结蒸气压测量值和最大风半径),在灾害管理和经济规划中极具价值。现有文献多聚焦于热带气旋的风向、强度、云形和震中位置,但针对最大风半径(RMW)估算的研究仍较为有限。准确估算RMW至关重要,因为估算误差会显著影响风场与风暴潮的评估及预报。\n本研究旨在确定北印度洋(NIO)上空的RMW。我们选择该区域,是因为其被孟加拉湾和阿拉伯海环绕,是全球六大热带气旋高发区之一。本研究利用历史观测数据和数学相关性,探究热带气旋中心、中心估算气压降与RMW之间的关系。为解决印度气象部门最佳路径数据库中的参数缺失问题,我们采用了局部回归模型。我们使用误差百分比和T检验这两种统计指标,验证所提方法的准确性。\n论文中讨论了北印度洋上空的大量热带气旋案例。研究结果表明,与印度气象部门(IMD)提供的最佳路径数据相比,所提方法的误差百分比范围约为-63%至50%。相比之下,另外两项参考文献[bib21, bib22]的方法在使用相同最佳路径数据时,误差百分比范围约为-26%至200%。此外,T检验结果表明,在统计显著性方面,我们的方法优于其他方法。

英文摘要:

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) have devastating effects on several coastal regions worldwide. Precautionary knowledge about TC characteristics such as wind direction, wind speed, epicenter position, condensed vapor pressure measure, and radius of maximum can be highly valuable in disaster management and economic planning. Existing literature has focused on TC wind direction, intensity, cloud shape, and epicenter position, but there has been limited research on estimation of the Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW). Accurate estimation of RMW is crucial as errors can significantly impact wind and storm surge assessments and forecasts. In this study, our objective is to determine the RMW over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). We chose this region due to its location surrounded by the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, making it one of the six globally prominent areas prone to TCs. Our study is on the relationship between the center of the TC, the estimated pressure drop at the center, and the RMW, using historical observations and mathematical correlations. To address missing parameters in the best track database of the Indian Meteorological Department, we employ a local regression model. We validate the accuracy of our developed method using two statistical measures: error percentage and T-test. Numerous TC cases are discussed in the paper over the NIO. Our findings indicates that the suggested method exhibits an error percentage ranging from approximately $-63\%$ to $50\%$ when compared to the best track data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). In contrast, the error percentages for two other references \cite{bib21, bib22} with the same best track data range from approximately $-26\%$ to $200\%$. Moreover, the T-test results demonstrate that our method outperforms than the other approaches in terms of statistical significance.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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