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arXiv 2209.11522physics.soc-phcs.SI
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流行病网络模型中的小覆盖效应表明，戴口罩的人越少，效果越好

Small coverage effect in epidemic network models shows that masks can become more effective with less people wearing them

Peter Klimek, Katharina Ledebur, Stefan Thurner

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摘要：

控制SARS-CoV-2传播的非药物干预措施的有效性取决于许多背景因素，包括依从性。传统观点认为，戴口罩等防护行为的有效性总是随着采用它的人数增加而增加。在这里，我们在模拟研究中表明，这在一般情况下并不正确。我们采用了一个简约的网络模型的基础上建立的经验事实，（i）坚持这样的干预随着时间的推移减弱，（ii）个人倾向于调整他们的采用策略与他们的密切的社会关系（同质性）。当结合这些假设时，出现了一个广泛的动态机制，其中对那些采取保护行为的人来说，个人层面的感染风险降低随着对保护行为的坚持程度的降低而增加。例如，对于10%的保护覆盖率，我们发现与覆盖率为60%的情况相比，收养个人的感染风险可以降低近30%。通过对外科口罩有效性的估计，我们发现，与不戴口罩的个体相比，戴口罩的相对风险降低了5%至15%，即，以三倍的倍数变化。这种小覆盖效应源于系统动力学网络特性，这些特性共同增加了疫情在病原体能够入侵小但紧密联系的个体群体之前结束的机会。我们的研究结果与流行的观点相矛盾，即随着越来越多的人摘下口罩，口罩变得无效，并且可能对在重新爆发的感染浪潮下保护弱势群体产生深远的影响。

英文摘要：

The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is determined by numerous contextual factors, including adherence. Conventional wisdom holds that the effectiveness of protective behaviour such as wearing masks always increases with the number of people adopting it. Here we show in a simulation study that this is not true in general. We employ a parsimonious network model based on the well-established empirical facts that (i) adherence to such interventions wanes over time and (ii) individuals tend to align their adoption strategies with their close social ties (homophily). When combining these assumptions, a broad dynamical regime emerges where the individual-level infection risk reduction for those adopting protective behaviour increases as the adherence to protective behavior decreases. For instance, for a protective coverage of 10% we find the infection risk for adopting individuals can be reduced by close to 30% compared to situations where the coverage is 60%. Using estimates for the effectiveness of surgical masks, we find that reductions in relative risk of masking versus non-masking individuals range between 5% and 15%, i.e., vary by a factor of three. This small coverage effect originates from system-dynamical network properties that conspire to increase the chance that an outbreak will be over before the pathogen is able to invade small but tightly connected groups of individuals that protect themselves. Our results contradict the popular belief that masking becomes ineffectual as more people drop their masks and might have far-reaching implications for the protection of vulnerable population groups under resurgent infection waves.

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