在COVID-19大流行中迫切需要通用掩蔽：SEIR和基于代理的模型，实证验证，政策建议
Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations
摘要：
我们为COVID-19大流行提出了两个模型，用于预测普遍佩戴口罩对SARS-CoV-2病毒传播的影响-一个采用基于随机动态网络的分区SEIR（易感染-暴露-感染-恢复）方法，另一种采用单兵反弹道导弹（基于主体的建模）蒙特卡罗模拟-表明：（1）当至少80%的人口佩戴口罩时，在（接近）普遍掩蔽下会产生重大影响，与只有50%或更少的人口戴口罩时的影响最小相比，（2）在区域性疫情爆发的第50天之前，早期采用普遍掩蔽时的影响显著，与晚期采用普遍掩蔽时的影响最小相比。即使在自制口罩的较低过滤率下，这些效果也保持不变。为了验证这些理论模型，我们将他们的预测与我们收集的新的经验数据集进行比较，这些数据集包括地区是否具有普遍的掩蔽文化或政策，它们的每日病例增长率以及它们从每日病例增长率峰值减少的百分比。结果显示，早期普遍掩蔽和成功抑制每日病例增长率和/或从峰值每日病例增长率降低之间存在近乎完美的相关性，正如我们的理论模拟所预测的那样。我们的理论和实证结果表明，迫切需要实施通用掩蔽。随着政府计划如何退出社会封锁，它正在成为一个关键的NPI;在经济，社会和心理健康方面，“嘴和鼻子的封锁”比“全身封锁”更具可持续性。反弹道导弹模拟的交互式可视化见www.example.com。我们建议立即提出佩戴口罩的建议，正确使用的官方指导方针，以及提高认识的运动，以将口罩的心态从纯粹的自我保护转变为负责任地保护社区的理想目标。
英文摘要：
We present two models for the COVID-19 pandemic predicting the impact of universal face mask wearing upon the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus--one employing a stochastic dynamic network based compartmental SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) approach, and the other employing individual ABM (agent-based modelling) Monte Carlo simulation--indicating (1) significant impact under (near) universal masking when at least 80% of a population is wearing masks, versus minimal impact when only 50% or less of the population is wearing masks, and (2) significant impact when universal masking is adopted early, by Day 50 of a regional outbreak, versus minimal impact when universal masking is adopted late. These effects hold even at the lower filtering rates of homemade masks. To validate these theoretical models, we compare their predictions against a new empirical data set we have collected that includes whether regions have universal masking cultures or policies, their daily case growth rates, and their percentage reduction from peak daily case growth rates. Results show a near perfect correlation between early universal masking and successful suppression of daily case growth rates and/or reduction from peak daily case growth rates, as predicted by our theoretical simulations. Our theoretical and empirical results argue for urgent implementation of universal masking. As governments plan how to exit societal lockdowns, it is emerging as a key NPI; a "mouth-and-nose lockdown" is far more sustainable than a "full body lockdown", on economic, social, and mental health axes. An interactive visualization of the ABM simulation is at http://dek.ai/masks4all. We recommend immediate mask wearing recommendations, official guidelines for correct use, and awareness campaigns to shift masking mindsets away from pure self-protection, towards aspirational goals of responsibly protecting one's community.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
