延迟强制佩戴口罩的影响--一个假设分析
Implications of Delay in Compulsory Mask Wearing -- A What-if Analysis
摘要：
我们以新加坡为背景，调查延迟强制佩戴口罩对COVID-19在社区传播的影响。通过使用改进的SEIR房室模型，我们专注于宏观人群水平的强制戴口罩的延迟和最大感染之间的关系的分析，通过一系列的基于EQUIPRO的分析。我们的分析表明，集体掩蔽可以有意义地减少COVID-19在社区中的传播，但只有在发现首次感染后约80 - 100天延迟的关键时间窗口内实施，再加上严格执法以确保整个期间的合规性。我们还确定了所谓的不归点，即大约100天的延迟阈值，这导致屏蔽强制执行对最大感染值几乎没有重大影响。
英文摘要：
We investigate the impact of the delay in compulsory mask wearing on the spread of COVID-19 in the community, set in the Singapore context. By using modified SEIR-based compartmental models, we focus on macroscopic population-level analysis of the relationships between the delay in compulsory mask wearing and the maximum infection, through a series of scenario-based analysis. Our analysis suggests that collective masking can meaningfully reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in the community, but only if implemented within a critical time window of approximately before 80 - 100 days delay after the first infection is detected, coupled with strict enforcement to ensure compliance throughout the duration. We also identify what is called a point of no return, a delay threshold of about 100 days that results in masking enforcement having little significant impact on the Maximum Infected Values.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
