In this paper, we present a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with individuals wearing facial masks and individuals who do not. The disease transmission rates, the recovering rates and the fraction of individuals who wear masks are all time dependent in the model. We develop a progressive estimation of the disease transmission rates and the recovering rates based on the COVID-19 data published by John Hopkins University. We determine the fraction of individual who wear masks by a maximum likelihood estimation, which maximizes the transition probability of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered model. The transition probability is numerically difficult to compute if the number of infected individuals is large. We develop an approximation for the transition probability based on central limit theorem and mean field approximation. We show through numerical study that our approximation works well. We develop a bond percolation analysis to predict the eventual fraction of population who are infected, assuming that parameters of the SIR model do not change anymore. We predict the outcome of COVID-19 pandemic using our theory.
Masks are used as part of a comprehensive strategy of measures to limit transmission and save lives during the COVID-19 pandemic. Research about the impact of mask-wearing in the COVID-19 pandemic has raised formidable interest across multiple disciplines. In this paper, we investigate the impact of mask-wearing in spreading processes over complex networks. This is done by studying a heterogeneous bond percolation process over a multi-type network model, where nodes can be one of two types (mask-wearing, and not-mask-wearing). We provide analytical results that accurately predict the expected …
Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exists optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an incr…
In spite of the extensive previous efforts on traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading in complex networks, the problem of traffic-driven epidemic spreading on {\em correlated} networks has not been addressed. Interestingly, we find that the epidemic threshold, a fundamental quantity underlying the spreading dynamics, exhibits a non-monotonic behavior in that it can be minimized for some critical value of the assortativity coefficient, a parameter characterizing the network correlation. To understand this phenomenon, we use the degree-based mean-field theory to calculate the traffic-driven epid…
The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is determined by numerous contextual factors, including adherence. Conventional wisdom holds that the effectiveness of protective behaviour such as wearing masks always increases with the number of people adopting it. Here we show in a simulation study that this is not true in general. We employ a parsimonious network model based on the well-established empirical facts that (i) adherence to such interventions wanes over time and (ii) individuals tend to align their adoption strategies with their close social…
The impact that information diffusion has on epidemic spreading has recently attracted much attention. As a disease begins to spread in the population, information about the disease is transmitted to others, which in turn has an effect on the spread of disease. In this paper, using empirical results of the propagation of H7N9 and information about the disease, we clearly show that the spreading dynamics of the two-types of processes influence each other. We build a mathematical model in which both types of spreading dynamics are described using the SIS process in order to illustrate the influe…
This study is concerned with the dynamical behaviors of epidemic spreading over a two-layered interconnected network. Three models in different levels are proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes over the interconnected network, wherein the disease in one network can spread to the other. Theoretical analysis is provided for each model to reveal that the global epidemic threshold in the interconnected network is not larger than the epidemic thresholds for the two isolated layered networks. In particular, in an interconnected homogenous network, detailed theoretical analysis is prese…
The interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading on complex networks has received increasing attention in recent years. However, the control of traffic-driven epidemic spreading remains to be a challenging problem. In this Brief Report, we propose a method to suppress traffic-driven epidemic outbreak by properly removing some edges in a network. We find that the epidemic threshold can be enhanced by the targeted cutting of links among large-degree nodes or edges with the largest algorithmic betweeness. In contrast, the epidemic threshold will be reduced by the random edge removal.…
Epidemic spreading on physical contact network will naturally introduce the human awareness information diffusion on virtual contact network, and the awareness diffusion will in turn depress the epidemic spreading, thus forming the competing spreading processes of epidemic and awareness in a multiplex networks. In this paper, we study the competing dynamics of epidemic and awareness, both of which follow the SIR process, in a two-layer networks based on microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations. We find that strong capacities of awareness diffusion and self-protection of indi…
In this paper, we study the interplay between the epidemic spreading and the diffusion of awareness in multiplex networks. In the model, an infectious disease can spread in one network representing the paths of epidemic spreading (contact network), leading to the diffusion of awareness in the other network (information network), and then the diffusion of awareness will cause individuals to take social distances, which in turn affects the epidemic spreading. As for the diffusion of awareness, we assume that, on the one hand, individuals can be informed by other aware neighbors in information ne…
In this work, we aim to understand the influence of the heterogeneity of infection rates on the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spreading. Employing the classic SIS model as the benchmark, we study the influence of the independently identically distributed infection rates on the average fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state. The log-normal, gamma and a newly designed distributions are considered for infection rates. We find that, when the recovery rate is small, i.e.\ the epidemic spreads out in both homogeneous and heterogeneous cases: 1) the heterogeneity of infe…
We propose a novel SIR epidemic model which is driven by the transmission of infection packets in networks. Specifically, infected nodes generate and deliver infection packets causing the spread of the epidemic, while recovered nodes block the delivery of infection packets, and this inhibits the epidemic spreading. The efficient routing protocol governed by a control parameter $α$ is used in the packet transmission. We obtain the maximum instantaneous population of infected nodes, the maximum population of ever infected nodes, as well as the corresponding optimal $α$ through simulation. We fin…
This article reviews and presents various solved and open problems in the development, analysis, and control of epidemic models. We are interested in presenting a relatively concise report for new engineers looking to enter the field of spreading processes on complex networks.
We study SIS epidemic spreading processes unfolding on a recent generalisation of the activity-driven modelling framework. In this model of time-varying networks each node is described by two variables: activity and attractiveness. The first, describes the propensity to form connections. The second, defines the propensity to attract them. We derive analytically the epidemic threshold considering the timescale driving the evolution of contacts and the contagion as comparable. The solutions are general and hold for any joint distribution of activity and attractiveness. The theoretical picture is…
Random walk is one of the basic mechanisms found in many network applications. We study the epidemic spreading dynamics driven by biased random walks on complex networks. In our epidemic model, each time infected nodes constantly spread some infected packets by biased random walks to their neighbor nodes causing the infection of the susceptible nodes that receive the packets. An infected node get recovered from infection with a fixed probability. Simulation and analytical results on model and real-world networks show that the epidemic spreading becomes intense and wide with the increase of del…
The spectral properties of the adjacency matrix, in particular its largest eigenvalue and the associated principal eigenvector, dominate many structural and dynamical properties of complex networks. Here we focus on the localization properties of the principal eigenvector in real networks. We show that in most cases it is either localized on the star defined by the node with largest degree (hub) and its nearest neighbors, or on the densely connected subgraph defined by the maximum $K$-core in a $K$-core decomposition. The localization of the principal eigenvector is often strongly correlated w…
In this paper, we aim to understand the transient dynamics of a susceptible-infected (SI) epidemic spreading process on a large network. The SI model has been largely overlooked in the literature, while it is naturally a better fit for modeling the malware propagation in early times when patches/vaccines are not available, or over a wider range of timescales when massive patching is practically infeasible. Nonetheless, its analysis is simply non-trivial, as its important dynamics are all transient and the usual stability/steady-state analysis no longer applies. To this end, we develop a theore…
The networked structure of contacts shapes the spreading of epidemic processes. Recent advances on network theory have improved our understanding of the epidemic processes at large scale. The relevance of several considerations still needs to be evaluated in the study of epidemic spreading. One of them is that of accounting for the influence of origin and destination patterns in the flow of the carriers of an epidemic. Here we compute origin-destination patterns compatible with empirical data of coarse grained flows in the air transportation network. We study the incidence of epidemic processe…
In this paper, we study the control of the traffic-driven epidemic spreading by immunization strategy. We consider the random, degree-based and betweeness-based immunization strategies, respectively. It is found that the betweeness-based immunization strategy can most effectively prevent the outbreak of traffic-driven epidemic. Besides, we find that the critical number of immune nodes above which epidemic dies out is increased with the enhancement of the spreading rate and the packet-generation rate.
Models of epidemic spreading on complex networks have attracted great attention among researchers in physics, mathematics, and epidemiology due to their success in predicting and controlling scenarios of epidemic spreading in real-world scenarios. To understand the interplay between epidemic spreading and the topology of a contact network, several outstanding theoretical approaches have been developed. An accurate theoretical approach describing the spreading dynamics must take both the network topology and dynamical correlations into consideration at the expense of increasing the complexity o…
May the Best Meme Win!: New Exploration of Competitive Epidemic Spreading over Arbitrary Multi-Layer Networks
本文将单病毒在任意图上传播的SIS传染病模型推广到两个互斥竞争病毒在具有类属结构的两层网络上传播的SI 1 SI 2S传染病模型，其中网络层代表病毒的不同传播路径.通过引入生存阈值和获胜阈值的概念，我们找到了确定病毒灭绝、互斥和共存的分析结果。此外，我们表明共存的可能性SIS型竞争性传播多层网络。我们不仅严格证明了共存的区域，我们通过网络层的中心节点的相互关系来量化它。层中心节点的重叠很少或没有重叠是共存的关键决定因素。具体来说，我们表明共存是不可能的，如果网络层是相同的，但可能的，如果网络层有不同的主导特征向量和节点度向量。例如，我们通过分析和数值计算表明，网络层的正相关性使病毒难以生存，而在网络层负相关的网络中，病毒的生存更容易，但要完全清除其他病毒则更困难。我们相信，我们的方法有很大的应用潜力，以更广泛的类的多病原体传播的多层和互连的网络。
We study the traffic-driven epidemic spreading on scale-free networks with tunable degree distribution. The heterogeneity of networks is controlled by the exponent $γ$ of power-law degree distribution. It is found that the epidemic threshold is minimized at about $γ=2.2$. Moreover, we find that nodes with larger algorithmic betweenness are more likely to be infected. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effect of network structures on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.
Passenger contact in public transit (PT) networks can be a key mediate in the spreading of infectious diseases. This paper proposes a time-varying weighted PT encounter network to model the spreading of infectious diseases through the PT systems. Social activity contacts at both local and global levels are also considered. We select the epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a case study along with smart card data from Singapore to illustrate the model at the metropolitan level. A scalable and lightweight theoretical framework is derived to capture the time-v…
The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter $h$. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter $h$, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we fin…
Many real-world networks display a community structure. We study two random graph models that create a network with similar community structure as a given network. One model preserves the exact community structure of the original network, while the other model only preserves the set of communities and the vertex degrees. These models show that community structure is an important determinant of the behavior of percolation processes on networks, such as information diffusion or virus spreading: the community structure can both \textit{enforce} as well as \textit{inhibit} diffusion processes. Our…
The understanding of epidemics on networks has greatly benefited from the recent application of message-passing approaches, which allow to derive exact results for irreversible spreading (i.e. diseases with permanent acquired immunity) in locally-tree like topologies. This success has suggested the application of the same approach to reversible epidemics, for which an individual can contract the epidemic and recover repeatedly. The underlying assumption is that backtracking paths (i.e. an individual is reinfected by a neighbor he/she previously infected) do not play a relevant role. In this pa…
We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete- and continuous-time versions. The incubation period, delayed infectiousness and the distribution of the recovery period are modeled with general functions. By taking corresponding choice of these functions, it is shown that the model reduces to the classical Markovian case. The epidemic threshold is analytically determined for arbitrary functions of infectivity and recovery and verified numerically. The relevance of the model is shown by modeling the first wave of t…
A more connected world has brought major consequences such as facilitate the spread of diseases all over the world to quickly become epidemics, reason why researchers are concentrated in modeling the propagation of epidemics and outbreaks in Multilayer Networks. In this networks all nodes interact in different layers with different type of links. However, in many scenarios such as in the society, a Multiplex Network framework is not completely suitable since not all individuals participate in all layers. In this paper, we use a partially overlapped Multiplex Network where only a fraction of th…
The design of an efficient curing policy, able to stem an epidemic process at an affordable cost, has to account for the structure of the population contact network supporting the contagious process. Thus, we tackle the problem of allocating recovery resources among the population, at the lowest cost possible to prevent the epidemic from persisting indefinitely in the network. Specifically, we analyze a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process spreading over a weighted graph, by means of a first-order mean-field approximation. First, we describe the influence of the contact network on…
Time-varying network topologies can deeply influence dynamical processes mediated by them. Memory effects in the pattern of interactions among individuals are also known to affect how diffusive and spreading phenomena take place. In this paper we analyze the combined effect of these two ingredients on epidemic dynamics on networks. We study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) models on the recently introduced activity-driven networks with memory. By means of an activity-based mean-field approach we derive, in the long time limit, analytical pre…
In many real-world complex systems, individuals have many kind of interactions among them, suggesting that it is necessary to consider a layered structure framework to model systems such as social interactions. This structure can be captured by multilayer networks and can have major effects on the spreading of process that occurs over them, such as epidemics. In this Letter we study a targeted immunization strategy for epidemic spreading over a multilayer network. We apply the strategy in one of the layers and study its effect in all layers of the network disregarding degree-degree correlation…
A configuration model for epidemic spread, based on a scale-free network, is introduced. We obtain the analytical solutions describing both unstable and stable dynamics of the epidemic spreading, and demonstrate how these regimes can interchange during the epidemic. We apply the model to the COVID-19 case and demonstrate the predictive features of our model.
We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we study the epidemic size of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, SIR, models and the epidemic threshold of Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible, SIS, models. Interestingly, we find that while the presence of tightly connected clusters inhibit SIR processes, it speeds up SIS diseases. In this case, we observe that heterogeneous temporal connectivity patterns and modular st…
