We study SIS epidemic spreading processes unfolding on a recent generalisation of the activity-driven modelling framework. In this model of time-varying networks each node is described by two variables: activity and attractiveness. The first, describes the propensity to form connections. The second, defines the propensity to attract them. We derive analytically the epidemic threshold considering the timescale driving the evolution of contacts and the contagion as comparable. The solutions are general and hold for any joint distribution of activity and attractiveness. The theoretical picture is confirmed via large-scale numerical simulations performed considering heterogeneous distributions and different correlations between the two variables. We find that heterogeneous distributions of attractiveness alter the contagion process. In particular, in case of uncorrelated and positive correlations between the two variables, heterogeneous attractiveness facilitates the spreading. On the contrary, negative correlations between activity and attractiveness hamper the spreading. The results presented contribute to the understanding of the dynamical properties of time-varying networks and their effects on contagion phenomena unfolding on their fabric.
Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exists optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an incr…
In spite of the extensive previous efforts on traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading in complex networks, the problem of traffic-driven epidemic spreading on {\em correlated} networks has not been addressed. Interestingly, we find that the epidemic threshold, a fundamental quantity underlying the spreading dynamics, exhibits a non-monotonic behavior in that it can be minimized for some critical value of the assortativity coefficient, a parameter characterizing the network correlation. To understand this phenomenon, we use the degree-based mean-field theory to calculate the traffic-driven epid…
Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results …
The impact that information diffusion has on epidemic spreading has recently attracted much attention. As a disease begins to spread in the population, information about the disease is transmitted to others, which in turn has an effect on the spread of disease. In this paper, using empirical results of the propagation of H7N9 and information about the disease, we clearly show that the spreading dynamics of the two-types of processes influence each other. We build a mathematical model in which both types of spreading dynamics are described using the SIS process in order to illustrate the influe…
This study is concerned with the dynamical behaviors of epidemic spreading over a two-layered interconnected network. Three models in different levels are proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes over the interconnected network, wherein the disease in one network can spread to the other. Theoretical analysis is provided for each model to reveal that the global epidemic threshold in the interconnected network is not larger than the epidemic thresholds for the two isolated layered networks. In particular, in an interconnected homogenous network, detailed theoretical analysis is prese…
We investigate the spread of diseases, computer viruses or information on complex networks and also immunization strategies to prevent or control the spread. When an entire population cannot be immunized and the effect of immunization is not perfect, we need the targeted immunization with immunization rate. Under such a circumstance we calculate epidemic thresholds for the SIR and SIS epidemic models. It is shown that, in scale-free networks, the targeted immunization is effective only if the immunization rate is equal to one. We analyze here epidemic spreading on directed complex networks, bu…
The interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading on complex networks has received increasing attention in recent years. However, the control of traffic-driven epidemic spreading remains to be a challenging problem. In this Brief Report, we propose a method to suppress traffic-driven epidemic outbreak by properly removing some edges in a network. We find that the epidemic threshold can be enhanced by the targeted cutting of links among large-degree nodes or edges with the largest algorithmic betweeness. In contrast, the epidemic threshold will be reduced by the random edge removal.…
Epidemic spreading on physical contact network will naturally introduce the human awareness information diffusion on virtual contact network, and the awareness diffusion will in turn depress the epidemic spreading, thus forming the competing spreading processes of epidemic and awareness in a multiplex networks. In this paper, we study the competing dynamics of epidemic and awareness, both of which follow the SIR process, in a two-layer networks based on microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations. We find that strong capacities of awareness diffusion and self-protection of indi…
In this paper, we study the interplay between the epidemic spreading and the diffusion of awareness in multiplex networks. In the model, an infectious disease can spread in one network representing the paths of epidemic spreading (contact network), leading to the diffusion of awareness in the other network (information network), and then the diffusion of awareness will cause individuals to take social distances, which in turn affects the epidemic spreading. As for the diffusion of awareness, we assume that, on the one hand, individuals can be informed by other aware neighbors in information ne…
The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics, each occurring on its own layer, by focusing on the two fundamental quantities underlying any spreading process: epidemic threshold and the final infection ratio. We find that an epidemic outbreak on the contact layer can induce an outbreak on the communication layer, and information spreading can effectively raise the epidemic thr…
In this work, we aim to understand the influence of the heterogeneity of infection rates on the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spreading. Employing the classic SIS model as the benchmark, we study the influence of the independently identically distributed infection rates on the average fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state. The log-normal, gamma and a newly designed distributions are considered for infection rates. We find that, when the recovery rate is small, i.e.\ the epidemic spreads out in both homogeneous and heterogeneous cases: 1) the heterogeneity of infe…
We propose a novel SIR epidemic model which is driven by the transmission of infection packets in networks. Specifically, infected nodes generate and deliver infection packets causing the spread of the epidemic, while recovered nodes block the delivery of infection packets, and this inhibits the epidemic spreading. The efficient routing protocol governed by a control parameter $α$ is used in the packet transmission. We obtain the maximum instantaneous population of infected nodes, the maximum population of ever infected nodes, as well as the corresponding optimal $α$ through simulation. We fin…
Recently, some studies have revealed that non-Poissonian statistics of human behaviors stem from the hierarchical geographical network structure. On this view, we focus on epidemic spreading in the hierarchical geographical networks, and study how two distinct contact patterns (i. e., homogeneous time delay (HOTD) and heterogeneous time delay (HETD) associated with geographical distance) influence the spreading speed and the variability of outbreaks. We find that, compared with HOTD and null model, correlations between time delay and network hierarchy in HETD remarkably slow down epidemic spre…
This article reviews and presents various solved and open problems in the development, analysis, and control of epidemic models. We are interested in presenting a relatively concise report for new engineers looking to enter the field of spreading processes on complex networks.
We consider an epidemic process on adaptive activity-driven temporal networks, with adaptive behaviour modelled as a change in activity and attractiveness due to infection. By using a mean-field approach, we derive an analytical estimate of the epidemic threshold for SIS and SIR epidemic models for a general adaptive strategy, which strongly depends on the correlations between activity and attractiveness in the susceptible and infected states. We focus on strong social distancing, implementing two types of quarantine inspired by recent real case studies: an active quarantine, in which the popu…
Random walk is one of the basic mechanisms found in many network applications. We study the epidemic spreading dynamics driven by biased random walks on complex networks. In our epidemic model, each time infected nodes constantly spread some infected packets by biased random walks to their neighbor nodes causing the infection of the susceptible nodes that receive the packets. An infected node get recovered from infection with a fixed probability. Simulation and analytical results on model and real-world networks show that the epidemic spreading becomes intense and wide with the increase of del…
The spread of disease on complex networks has attracted widely attention in the physics community. Recent works have demonstrated that heterogeneous degree and weight distributions have a significant influence on the epidemic dynamics. In this study, a novel edge-weight based compartmental approach is developed to estimate the epidemic threshold and epidemic size (final infected density) on networks with general degree and weight distributions, and a remarkable agreement with numerics is obtained. Even in complex network with the strong heterogeneous degree and weight distributions, this appro…
The spectral properties of the adjacency matrix, in particular its largest eigenvalue and the associated principal eigenvector, dominate many structural and dynamical properties of complex networks. Here we focus on the localization properties of the principal eigenvector in real networks. We show that in most cases it is either localized on the star defined by the node with largest degree (hub) and its nearest neighbors, or on the densely connected subgraph defined by the maximum $K$-core in a $K$-core decomposition. The localization of the principal eigenvector is often strongly correlated w…
We propose a model for epidemic spreading on a finite complex network with a restriction to at most one contamination per time step. Because of a highly discrete character of the process, the analysis cannot use the continous approximation, widely exploited for most of the models. Using discrete approach we investigate the epidemic threshold and the quasi-stationary distribution. The main result is a theorem about mixing time for the process, which scales like logarithm of the network size and which is proportional to the inverse of the distance from the epidemic threshold. In order to present…
Changs in individual behavior often entangles with the dynamic interaction of individuals, which complicates the epidemic process and brings great challenges for the understanding and control of the epidemic. In this work, we consider three kinds of typical behavioral changes in epidemic process that is, self-quarantine of infected individuals, self-protection of susceptible individuals, and social distancing between them. We connect the behavioral changes with individual's social attributes by the activity-driven network with attractiveness. A mean-field theory is established to derive an ana…
Understanding spreading dynamics will benefit society as a whole in better preventing and controlling diseases, as well as facilitating the socially responsible information while depressing destructive rumors. In network-based spreading dynamics, edges with different weights may play far different roles: a friend from afar usually brings novel stories, and an intimate relationship is highly risky for a flu epidemic. In this article, we propose a weighted susceptible-infected-susceptible model on complex networks, where the weight of an edge is defined by the topological proximity of the two as…
In this paper, we aim to understand the transient dynamics of a susceptible-infected (SI) epidemic spreading process on a large network. The SI model has been largely overlooked in the literature, while it is naturally a better fit for modeling the malware propagation in early times when patches/vaccines are not available, or over a wider range of timescales when massive patching is practically infeasible. Nonetheless, its analysis is simply non-trivial, as its important dynamics are all transient and the usual stability/steady-state analysis no longer applies. To this end, we develop a theore…
Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity followed by long periods of silence. This burstiness has been shown to affect spreading phenomena; it accelerates epidemic spreading in some cases and slows it down in other cases. We investigate a model of history-dependent contagion. In our model, repeated interactions between susceptible and infected individuals in a short period of time is needed for a …
Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in non trivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately, and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successf…
We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemics, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a Microscopic Markov Chain Approac…
In the study of disease spreading on empirical complex networks in SIR model, initially infected nodes can be ranked according to some measure of their epidemic impact. The highest ranked nodes, also referred to as "superspreaders", are associated to dominant epidemic risks and therefore deserve special attention. In simulations on studied empirical complex networks, it is shown that the ranking depends on the dynamical regime of the disease spreading. A possible mechanism leading to this dependence is illustrated in an analytically tractable example. In systems where the allocation of resourc…
In this paper, we study the control of the traffic-driven epidemic spreading by immunization strategy. We consider the random, degree-based and betweeness-based immunization strategies, respectively. It is found that the betweeness-based immunization strategy can most effectively prevent the outbreak of traffic-driven epidemic. Besides, we find that the critical number of immune nodes above which epidemic dies out is increased with the enhancement of the spreading rate and the packet-generation rate.
The networked structure of contacts shapes the spreading of epidemic processes. Recent advances on network theory have improved our understanding of the epidemic processes at large scale. The relevance of several considerations still needs to be evaluated in the study of epidemic spreading. One of them is that of accounting for the influence of origin and destination patterns in the flow of the carriers of an epidemic. Here we compute origin-destination patterns compatible with empirical data of coarse grained flows in the air transportation network. We study the incidence of epidemic processe…
Models of epidemic spreading on complex networks have attracted great attention among researchers in physics, mathematics, and epidemiology due to their success in predicting and controlling scenarios of epidemic spreading in real-world scenarios. To understand the interplay between epidemic spreading and the topology of a contact network, several outstanding theoretical approaches have been developed. An accurate theoretical approach describing the spreading dynamics must take both the network topology and dynamical correlations into consideration at the expense of increasing the complexity o…
Weight distribution largely impacts the epidemic spreading taking place on top of networks. This paper studies a susceptible-infected-susceptible model on regular random networks with different kinds of weight distributions. Simulation results show that the more homogeneous weight distribution leads to higher epidemic prevalence, which, unfortunately, could not be captured by the traditional mean-field approximation. This paper gives an edge-based mean-field solution for general weight distribution, which can quantitatively reproduce the simulation results. This method could find its applicati…
Recent empirical observations suggest a heterogeneous nature of human activities. The heavy-tailed inter-event time distribution at population level is well accepted, while whether the individual acts in a heterogeneous way is still under debate. Motivated by the impact of temporal heterogeneity of human activities on epidemic spreading, this paper studies the susceptible-infected model on a fully mixed population, where each individual acts in a completely homogeneous way but different individuals have different mean activities. Extensive simulations show that the heterogeneity of activities …
The disease spreading on complex networks is studied in SIR model. Simulations on empirical complex networks reveal two specific regimes of disease spreading: local containment and epidemic outbreak. The variables measuring the extent of disease spreading are in general characterized by a bimodal probability distribution. Phase diagrams of disease spreading for empirical complex networks are introduced. A theoretical model of disease spreading on m-ary tree is investigated both analytically and in simulations. It is shown that the model reproduces qualitative features of phase diagrams of dise…
Modeling spreading processes in complex random networks plays an essential role in understanding and prediction of many real phenomena like epidemics or rumor spreading. The dynamics of such systems may be represented algorithmically by Monte-Carlo simulations on graphs or by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Despite many results in the area of network modeling the selection of the best computational representation of the model dynamics remains a challenge. While a closed form description is often straightforward to derive, it generally cannot be solved analytically; as a consequence the…
This study extends the SIS epidemic model for single virus propagation over an arbitrary graph to an SI1SI2S epidemic model of two exclusive, competitive viruses over a two-layer network with generic structure, where network layers represent the distinct transmission routes of the viruses. We find analytical results determining extinction, mutual exclusion, and coexistence of the viruses by introducing the concepts of survival threshold and winning threshold. Furthermore, we show the possibility of coexistence in SIS-type competitive spreading over multilayer networks. Not only do we rigorousl…
In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental approach and percolation tools, we find that a time-dependent quantity $Φ_S(t)$, namely, the probability that a given neighbor of a node is susceptible at time $t$, is the control parameter of a node void percolation process involving those nodes on the network not-reached by the disease. We show that there exists a critical time $t_c$ above which the giant sus…
We study the traffic-driven epidemic spreading on scale-free networks with tunable degree distribution. The heterogeneity of networks is controlled by the exponent $γ$ of power-law degree distribution. It is found that the epidemic threshold is minimized at about $γ=2.2$. Moreover, we find that nodes with larger algorithmic betweenness are more likely to be infected. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effect of network structures on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.
The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter $h$. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter $h$, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we fin…
Passenger contact in public transit (PT) networks can be a key mediate in the spreading of infectious diseases. This paper proposes a time-varying weighted PT encounter network to model the spreading of infectious diseases through the PT systems. Social activity contacts at both local and global levels are also considered. We select the epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a case study along with smart card data from Singapore to illustrate the model at the metropolitan level. A scalable and lightweight theoretical framework is derived to capture the time-v…
The understanding of epidemics on networks has greatly benefited from the recent application of message-passing approaches, which allow to derive exact results for irreversible spreading (i.e. diseases with permanent acquired immunity) in locally-tree like topologies. This success has suggested the application of the same approach to reversible epidemics, for which an individual can contract the epidemic and recover repeatedly. The underlying assumption is that backtracking paths (i.e. an individual is reinfected by a neighbor he/she previously infected) do not play a relevant role. In this pa…
Many real-world networks display a community structure. We study two random graph models that create a network with similar community structure as a given network. One model preserves the exact community structure of the original network, while the other model only preserves the set of communities and the vertex degrees. These models show that community structure is an important determinant of the behavior of percolation processes on networks, such as information diffusion or virus spreading: the community structure can both \textit{enforce} as well as \textit{inhibit} diffusion processes. Our…
We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete- and continuous-time versions. The incubation period, delayed infectiousness and the distribution of the recovery period are modeled with general functions. By taking corresponding choice of these functions, it is shown that the model reduces to the classical Markovian case. The epidemic threshold is analytically determined for arbitrary functions of infectivity and recovery and verified numerically. The relevance of the model is shown by modeling the first wave of t…
We consider a standard \textit{susceptible-infected-susceptible} (SIS) model to study behaviors of steady states of epidemic spreading in small-world networks. Using analytical methods and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a critical threshold $λ_{c}$ below which infectious diseases die out. Whereas for the spreading rate $λ$ far above $λ_{c}$, it was found that the density of infected individuals $ρ$ as a function of $λ$ has the property $ρ\approx F(K)(\ln λ- \ln λ_{c})$.
A more connected world has brought major consequences such as facilitate the spread of diseases all over the world to quickly become epidemics, reason why researchers are concentrated in modeling the propagation of epidemics and outbreaks in Multilayer Networks. In this networks all nodes interact in different layers with different type of links. However, in many scenarios such as in the society, a Multiplex Network framework is not completely suitable since not all individuals participate in all layers. In this paper, we use a partially overlapped Multiplex Network where only a fraction of th…
The propagations of diseases, behaviors and information in real systems are rarely independent of each other, but they are coevolving with strong interactions. To uncover the dynamical mechanisms, the evolving spatiotemporal patterns and critical phenomena of networked coevolution spreading are extremely important, which provide theoretical foundations for us to control epidemic spreading, predict collective behaviors in social systems, and so on. The coevolution spreading dynamics in complex networks has thus attracted much attention in many disciplines. In this review, we introduce recent pr…
The design of an efficient curing policy, able to stem an epidemic process at an affordable cost, has to account for the structure of the population contact network supporting the contagious process. Thus, we tackle the problem of allocating recovery resources among the population, at the lowest cost possible to prevent the epidemic from persisting indefinitely in the network. Specifically, we analyze a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process spreading over a weighted graph, by means of a first-order mean-field approximation. First, we describe the influence of the contact network on…
Time-varying network topologies can deeply influence dynamical processes mediated by them. Memory effects in the pattern of interactions among individuals are also known to affect how diffusive and spreading phenomena take place. In this paper we analyze the combined effect of these two ingredients on epidemic dynamics on networks. We study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) models on the recently introduced activity-driven networks with memory. By means of an activity-based mean-field approach we derive, in the long time limit, analytical pre…
Epidemic-like spreading processes on top of multilayered interconnected complex networks reveal a rich phase diagram of intertwined competition effects. A recent study by the authors [Granell et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 128701 (2013)] presented the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemics, and the spreading of information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. The results in the case in which awareness implies total immunization to the disease, revealed the existence of a metacritical point at which the critica…
In many real-world complex systems, individuals have many kind of interactions among them, suggesting that it is necessary to consider a layered structure framework to model systems such as social interactions. This structure can be captured by multilayer networks and can have major effects on the spreading of process that occurs over them, such as epidemics. In this Letter we study a targeted immunization strategy for epidemic spreading over a multilayer network. We apply the strategy in one of the layers and study its effect in all layers of the network disregarding degree-degree correlation…
Recently, many empirical studies uncovered that animal foraging, migration and human traveling obey Levy flights with an exponent around -2. Inspired by the deluge of H1N1 this year, in this paper, the effects of Levy flights' mobility pattern on epidemic spreading is studied from a network perspective. We construct a spatial weighted network which possesses Levy flight spatial property under a restriction of total energy. The energy restriction is represented by the limitation of total travel distance within a certain time period of an individual. We find that the exponent -2 is the epidemic …
Bipartite networks are composed of two types of nodes and there are no links between nodes of the same type. Thus the study of epidemic spread and control on such networks is relevant to sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). When entire populations of two types cannot be immunized and the effect of immunization is not perfect, we have to consider the targeted immunization with immunization rates. We derive the epidemic thresholds of SIR and SIS models with immunization and illustrate the results with STDs on heterosexual contact networks.
A configuration model for epidemic spread, based on a scale-free network, is introduced. We obtain the analytical solutions describing both unstable and stable dynamics of the epidemic spreading, and demonstrate how these regimes can interchange during the epidemic. We apply the model to the COVID-19 case and demonstrate the predictive features of our model.
We present a modified \emph{susceptible-infected-susceptible} (SIS) model on complex networks, small-world and scale-free, to study epidemic spreading with the effect of time delay which is introduced to the infected phase. Considering the topology of the network, both uniform and degree-dependent delays are studied during the contagion process. We find that the existence of time delay will enhance both outbreaks and prevalence of infectious diseases in the network.
We study geographical effects on the spread of diseases in lattice-embedded scale-free networks. The geographical structure is represented by the connecting probability of two nodes that is related to the Euclidean distance between them in the lattice. By studying the standard Susceptible-Infected model, we found that the geographical structure has great influences on the temporal behavior of epidemic outbreaks and the propagation in the underlying network: the more geographically constrained the network is, the more smoothly the epidemic spreads.
We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we study the epidemic size of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, SIR, models and the epidemic threshold of Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible, SIS, models. Interestingly, we find that while the presence of tightly connected clusters inhibit SIR processes, it speeds up SIS diseases. In this case, we observe that heterogeneous temporal connectivity patterns and modular st…
In this paper, we investigate the epidemic spreading for SIR model in weighted scale-free networks with nonlinear infectivity, where the transmission rate in our analytical model is weighted. Concretely, we introduce the infectivity exponent $α$ and the weight exponent $β$ into the analytical SIR model, then examine the combination effects of $α$ and $β$ on the epidemic threshold and phase transition. We show that one can adjust the values of $α$ and $β$ to rebuild the epidemic threshold to a finite value, and it is observed that the steady epidemic prevalence $R$ grows in an exponential form …
