航空复杂系统安全分析方法
Safety Analysis Methods for Complex Systems in Aviation
AI总结：
针对航空复杂系统安全性分析难题，本文提出若干非行业标准但有效的安全分析方法，以支持颠覆性技术概念的安全论证与成本降低。
摘要：
航空领域的每一个新运行概念和装备世代都变得更加自动化、集成化和互联化。对于无人机系统（UAS）而言，这一演进使得大幅降低飞机重量和运行成本成为可能，但这些益处同样体现在高度自动化的有人驾驶飞机和地面空中交通管制（ATC）系统中。这些进步的弊端在于软件和硬件变得极其复杂，使得识别潜在故障路径变得更加困难。尽管存在基于广泛接受的标准（如ARP4754及其系列、ESARR 4等）的强制性认证流程，但这些标准无法证明或反驳颠覆性技术变革的安全性，例如基于地基增强系统（GBAS）的精密进近、自主无人机、飞机自主间隔保持等。为了推动此类概念的引入，有必要在复杂系统安全基础方面建立扎实的知识，并利用这些知识为新系统设计的安全性或不安全性制定可靠的论证。在设计早期阶段进行这些论证将有助于降低新技术开发的成本，并降低此类技术在投入使用中引发事故的风险。本文介绍了一些不在行业标准中但我们认为对分析航空先进技术概念安全性有益的安全分析方法。
英文摘要：
Each new concept of operation and equipment generation in aviation becomes more automated, integrated and interconnected. In the case of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), this evolution allows drastically decreasing aircraft weight and operational cost, but these benefits are also realized in highly automated manned aircraft and ground Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems. The downside of these advances is overwhelmingly more complex software and hardware, making it harder to identify potential failure paths. Although there are mandatory certification processes based on broadly accepted standards, such as ARP4754 and its family, ESARR 4 and others, these standards do not allow proof or disproof of safety of disruptive technology changes, such as GBAS Precision Approaches, Autonomous UAS, aircraft self-separation and others. In order to leverage the introduction of such concepts, it is necessary to develop solid knowledge on the foundations of safety in complex systems and use this knowledge to elaborate sound demonstrations of either safety or unsafety of new system designs. These demonstrations at early design stages will help reducing costs both on development of new technology as well as reducing the risk of such technology causing accidents when in use. This paper presents some safety analysis methods which are not in the industry standards but which we identify as having benefits for analyzing safety of advanced technological concepts in aviation.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
