Penalized $M-$estimators for logistic regression models have been previously study for fixed dimension in order to obtain sparse statistical models and automatic variable selection. In this paper, we derive asymptotic results for penalized $M-$estimators when the dimension $p$ grows to infinity with the sample size $n$. Specifically, we obtain consistency and rates of convergence results, for some choices of the penalty function. Moreover, we prove that these estimators consistently select variables with probability tending to 1 and derive their asymptotic distribution.
Since its early use in least squares regression problems, the l1-penalization framework for variable selection has been employed in conjunction with a wide range of loss functions encompassing regression, classification and survival analysis. While a well developed theory exists for the l1-penalized least squares estimates, few results concern the behavior of l1-penalized estimates for general loss functions. In this paper, we derive two results concerning penalized estimates for a wide array of penalty and loss functions. Our first result characterizes the asymptotic distribution of penalized…
Inference based on the penalized density ratio model is proposed and studied. The model under consideration is specified by assuming that the log--likelihood function of two unknown densities is of some parametric form. The model has been extended to cover multiple samples problems while its theoretical properties have been investigated using large sample theory. A main application of the density ratio model is testing whether two, or more, distributions are equal. We extend these results by arguing that the penalized maximum empirical likelihood estimator has less mean square error than that …
Quantile regression predicts the $τ$-quantile of the conditional distribution of a response variable given the explanatory variable for $τ\in(0,1)$. The aim of this paper is to establish the asymptotic distribution of the quantile estimator obtained by penalized spline method. A simulation and an exploration of real data are performed to validate our results.
This paper is concerned with asymptotic theory for penalized spline estimator in bivariate additive model. The focus of this paper is put upon the penalized spline estimator obtained by the backfitting algorithm. The convergence of the algorithm as well as the uniqueness of its solution are shown. The asymptotic bias and variance of penalized spline estimator are derived by an efficient use of the asymptotic results for the penalized spline estimator in marginal univariate model. Asymptotic normality of estimator is also developed, by which an approximate confidence interval can be obtained. S…
This work studies the statistical properties of the maximum penalized likelihood approach in a semi-parametric framework. We recall the penalized likelihood approach for estimating a function and review some asymptotic results. We investigate the properties of two estimators of the variance of maximum penalized likelihood estimators: sandwich estimator and a Bayesian estimator. The coverage rates of confidence intervals based on these estimators are studied through a simulation study of survival data. In a first simulation the coverage rates for the survival function and the hazard function ar…
We study the asymptotic properties of the SCAD-penalized least squares estimator in sparse, high-dimensional, linear regression models when the number of covariates may increase with the sample size. We are particularly interested in the use of this estimator for simultaneous variable selection and estimation. We show that under appropriate conditions, the SCAD-penalized least squares estimator is consistent for variable selection and that the estimators of nonzero coefficients have the same asymptotic distribution as they would have if the zero coefficients were known in advance. Simulation s…
This paper develops a general theory on rates of convergence of penalized spline estimators for function estimation when the likelihood functional is concave in candidate functions, where the likelihood is interpreted in a broad sense that includes conditional likelihood, quasi-likelihood, and pseudo-likelihood. The theory allows all feasible combinations of the spline degree, the penalty order, and the smoothness of the unknown functions. According to this theory, the asymptotic behaviors of the penalized spline estimators depends on interplay between the spline knot number and the penalty pa…
In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric regression estimator by using a hybrid technique of a parametric approach and a nonparametric penalized spline method. The overall shape of the true regression function is captured by the parametric part, while its residual is consistently estimated by the nonparametric part. Asymptotic theory for the proposed semiparametric estimator is developed, showing that its behavior is dependent on the asymptotics for the nonparametric penalized spline estimator as well as on the discrepancy between the true regression function and the parametric part. As …
This paper discusses asymptotic theory for penalized spline estimators in generalized additive models. The purpose of this paper is to establish the asymptotic bias and variance as well as the asymptotic normality of the penalized spline estimators proposed by Marx and Eilers (1998). Furthermore, the asymptotics for the penalized quasi likelihood fit in mixed models are also discussed.
We introduce a covariate-specific total variation penalty in two semiparametric models for the rate function of recurrent event process. The two models are a stratified Cox model, introduced in Prentice et al. (1981), and a stratified Aalen's additive model. We show the consistency and asymptotic normality of our penalized estimators. We demonstrate, through a simulation study, that our estimators outperform classical estimators for small to moderate sample sizes. Finally an application to the bladder tumour data of Byar (1980) is presented.
The authors consider the problem of estimating the density $g$ of independent and identically distributed variables $X\_i$, from a sample $Z\_1, ..., Z\_n$ where $Z\_i=X\_i+σε\_i$, $i=1, ..., n$, $ε$ is a noise independent of $X$, with $σε$ having known distribution. They present a model selection procedure allowing to construct an adaptive estimator of $g$ and to find non-asymptotic bounds for its $\mathbb{L}\_2(\mathbb{R})$-risk. The estimator achieves the minimax rate of convergence, in most cases where lowers bounds are available. A simulation study gives an illustration of the good practi…
Many statistical estimation procedures lead to nonconvex optimization problems. Algorithms to solve these are often guaranteed to output a stationary point of the optimization problem. Oracle inequalities are an important theoretical instrument to asses the statistical performance of an estimator. Oracle results have focused on the theoretical properties of the uncomputable (global) minimum or maximum. In the present work a general framework used for convex optimization problems to derive oracle inequalities for stationary points is extended. A main new ingredient of these oracle inequalities …
We derive asymptotic properties of penalized estimators for singular models for which identifiability may break and the true parameter values can lie on the boundary of the parameter space. Selection consistency of the estimators is also validated. The problem that the true values lie on the boundary is dealt with by our previous results that are applicable to singular models, besides, penalized estimation and non-ergodic statistics. In order to overcome non-identifiability, we consider a suitable penalty such as the non-convex Bridge and the adaptive Lasso that stabilizes the asymptotic behav…
It is known that when the multicollinearity exists in the logistic regression model, variance of maximum likelihood estimator is unstable. As a remedy, in the context of biased shrinkage ridge estimation, Chang (2015) introduced an almost unbiased Liu estimator in the logistic regression model. Making use of his approach, when some prior knowledge in the form of linear restrictions are also available, we introduce a restricted almost unbiased Liu estimator in the logistic regression model. Statistical properties of this newly defined estimator are derived and some comparison result are also pr…
We consider a one-dimensional diffusion process $(X_t)$ which is observed at $n+1$ discrete times with regular sampling interval $Δ$. Assuming that $(X_t)$ is strictly stationary, we propose nonparametric estimators of the drift and diffusion coefficients obtained by a penalized least squares approach. Our estimators belong to a finite-dimensional function space whose dimension is selected by a data-driven method. We provide non-asymptotic risk bounds for the estimators. When the sampling interval tends to zero while the number of observations and the length of the observation time interval te…
Penalized regression estimators are a popular tool for the analysis of sparse and high-dimensional data sets. However, penalized regression estimators defined using an unbounded loss function can be very sensitive to the presence of outlying observations, especially high leverage outliers. Moreover, it can be particularly challenging to detect outliers in high-dimensional data sets. Thus, robust estimators for sparse and high-dimensional linear regression models are in need. In this paper, we study the robust and asymptotic properties of MM-Bridge and adaptive MM-Bridge estimators: $\ell_q$-pe…
In cluster-specific studies, ordinary logistic regression and conditional logistic regression for binary outcomes provide maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and conditional maximum likelihood estimator (CMLE), respectively. In this paper, we show that CMLE is approaching to MLE asymptotically when each individual data point is replicated infinitely many times. Our theoretical derivation is based on the observation that a term appearing in the conditional average log-likelihood function is the coefficient of a polynomial, and hence can be transformed to a complex integral by Cauchy's differenti…
Confidence intervals based on penalized maximum likelihood estimators such as the LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and hard-thresholding are analyzed. In the known-variance case, the finite-sample coverage properties of such intervals are determined and it is shown that symmetric intervals are the shortest. The length of the shortest intervals based on the hard-thresholding estimator is larger than the length of the shortest interval based on the adaptive LASSO, which is larger than the length of the shortest interval based on the LASSO, which in turn is larger than the standard interval based on the ma…
Maximum likelihood estimation in logistic regression with mixed effects is known to often result in estimates on the boundary of the parameter space. Such estimates, which include infinite values for fixed effects and singular or infinite variance components, can cause havoc to numerical estimation procedures and inference. We introduce an appropriately scaled additive penalty to the log-likelihood function, or an approximation thereof, which penalizes the fixed effects by the Jeffreys' invariant prior for the model with no random effects and the variance components by a composition of negativ…
We study the distributions of the LASSO, SCAD, and thresholding estimators, in finite samples and in the large-sample limit. The asymptotic distributions are derived for both the case where the estimators are tuned to perform consistent model selection and for the case where the estimators are tuned to perform conservative model selection. Our findings complement those of Knight and Fu (2000) and Fan and Li (2001). We show that the distributions are typically highly nonnormal regardless of how the estimator is tuned, and that this property persists in large samples. The uniform convergence rat…
We propose a new method, semi-penalized inference with direct false discovery rate control (SPIDR), for variable selection and confidence interval construction in high-dimensional linear regression. SPIDR first uses a semi-penalized approach to constructing estimators of the regression coefficients. We show that the SPIDR estimator is ideal in the sense that it equals an ideal least squares estimator with high probability under a sparsity and other suitable conditions. Consequently, the SPIDR estimator is asymptotically normal. Based on this distributional result, SPIDR determines the selectio…
In finite mixtures of location-scale distributions, if there is no constraint or penalty on the parameters, then the maximum likelihood estimator does not exist because the likelihood is unbounded. To avoid this problem, we consider a penalized likelihood, where the penalty is a function of the minimum of the ratios of the scale parameters and the sample size. It is shown that the penalized maximum likelihood estimator is strongly consistent. We also analyze the consistency of a penalized maximum likelihood estimator where the penalty is imposed on the scale parameters themselves.
Bivariate ordered logistic models (BOLMs) are appealing to jointly model the marginal distribution of two ordered responses and their association, given a set of covariates. When the number of categories of the responses increases, the number of global odds ratios (or their re-parametrizations) to be estimated also increases and estimating the association structure becomes crucial for this type of data. In fact, such data could be too "rich" to be fully modelled with an ordinary BOLM while, sometimes, the well-known Dale's model could be too parsimonious to provide a good fit. In addition, whe…
The behavior of the conditional logistic estimator is analyzed under a causal model for two-arm experimental studies with possible non-compliance in which the effect of the treatment is measured by a binary response variable. We show that, when non-compliance may only be observed in the treatment arm, the effect (measured on the logit scale) of the treatment on compliers and that of the control on non-compliers can be identified and consistently estimated under mild conditions. The same does not happen for the effect of the control on compliers. A simple correction of the conditional logistic …
We investigate high-dimensional nonconvex penalized regression, where the number of covariates may grow at an exponential rate. Although recent asymptotic theory established that there exists a local minimum possessing the oracle property under general conditions, it is still largely an open problem how to identify the oracle estimator among potentially multiple local minima. There are two main obstacles: (1) due to the presence of multiple minima, the solution path is nonunique and is not guaranteed to contain the oracle estimator; (2) even if a solution path is known to contain the oracle es…
Estimator selection has become a crucial issue in non parametric estimation. Two widely used methods are penalized empirical risk minimization (such as penalized log-likelihood estimation) or pairwise comparison (such as Lepski's method). Our aim in this paper is twofold. First we explain some general ideas about the calibration issue of estimator selection methods. We review some known results, putting the emphasis on the concept of minimal penalty which is helpful to design data-driven selection criteria. Secondly we present a new method for bandwidth selection within the framework of kernel…
The paper focuses on the automatic selection of the grouped explanatory variables in an high-dimensional model, when the model errors are asymmetric. After introducing the model and notations, we define the adaptive group LASSO expectile estimator for which we prove the oracle properties: the sparsity and the asymptotic normality. Afterwards, the results are generalized by considering the asymmetric $L_q$-norm loss function. The theoretical results are obtained in several cases with respect to the number of variable groups. This number can be fixed or dependent on the sample size $n$, with the…
We study the convergence properties, in Hellinger and related distances, of nonparametric density estimators based on measure transport. These estimators represent the measure of interest as the pushforward of a chosen reference distribution under a transport map, where the map is chosen via a maximum likelihood objective (equivalently, minimizing an empirical Kullback-Leibler loss) or a penalized version thereof. We establish concentration inequalities for a general class of penalized measure transport estimators, by combining techniques from M-estimation with analytical properties of the tra…
Skew normal mixture models provide a more flexible framework than the popular normal mixtures for modelling heterogeneous data with asymmetric behaviors. Due to the unboundedness of likelihood function and the divergency of shape parameters, the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of interest are often not well defined, leading to dissatisfactory inferential process. We put forward a proposal to deal with these issues simultaneously in the context of penalizing the likelihood function. The resulting penalized maximum likelihood estimator is proved to be strongly consistent when the…
We want to analyse EEG recordings in order to investigate the phonemic categorization at a very early stage of auditory processing. This problem can be modelled by a supervised classification of functional data. Discrimination is explored via a logistic functional linear model, using a wavelet representation of the data. Different procedures are investigated, based on penalized likelihood and principal component reduction or partial least squares reduction.
The von Mises-Fisher distribution is one of the most widely used probability distributions to describe directional data. Finite mixtures of von Mises-Fisher distributions have found numerous applications. However, the likelihood function for the finite mixture of von Mises-Fisher distributions is unbounded and consequently the maximum likelihood estimation is not well defined. To address the problem of likelihood degeneracy, we consider a penalized maximum likelihood approach whereby a penalty function is incorporated. We prove strong consistency of the resulting estimator. An Expectation-Maxi…
Multivariate normal mixtures provide a flexible model for high-dimensional data. They are widely used in statistical genetics, statistical finance, and other disciplines. Due to the unboundedness of the likelihood function, classical likelihood-based methods, which may have nice practical properties, are inconsistent. In this paper, we recommend a penalized likelihood method for estimating the mixing distribution. We show that the maximum penalized likelihood estimator is strongly consistent when the number of components has a known upper bound. We also explore a convenient EM-algorithm for co…
We consider a dynamical system with small noise for which the drift is parametrized by a finite dimensional parameter. For this model we consider minimum distance estimation from continuous time observations under $l^p$-penalty imposed on the parameters in the spirit of the Lasso approach with the aim of simultaneous estimation and model selection. We study the consistency and the asymptotic distribution of these Lasso-type estimators for different values of $p$. For $p=1$ we also consider the adaptive version of the Lasso estimator and establish its oracle properties.
Functional data analysis is a fast evolving branch of statistics. Estimation procedures for the popular functional linear model either suffer from lack of robustness or are computationally burdensome. To address these shortcomings, a flexible family of penalized lower-rank estimators based on a bounded loss function is proposed. The proposed class of estimators is shown to be consistent and can attain high rates of convergence with respect to prediction error under weak regularity conditions. These results can be generalized to higher dimensions under similar assumptions. The finite-sample per…
Penalized estimation principle is fundamental to high-dimensional problems. In the literature, it has been extensively and successfully applied to various models with only structural parameters. As a contrast, in this paper, we apply this penalization principle to a linear regression model with a finite-dimensional vector of structural parameters and a high-dimensional vector of sparse incidental parameters. For the estimators of the structural parameters, we derive their consistency and asymptotic normality, which reveals an oracle property. However, the penalized estimators for the incidenta…
We study recovery of piecewise-constant signals on graphs by the estimator minimizing an $l_0$-edge-penalized objective. Although exact minimization of this objective may be computationally intractable, we show that the same statistical risk guarantees are achieved by the $α$-expansion algorithm which computes an approximate minimizer in polynomial time. We establish that for graphs with small average vertex degree, these guarantees are minimax rate-optimal over classes of edge-sparse signals. For spatially inhomogeneous graphs, we propose minimization of an edge-weighted objective where each …
This paper studies the non-asymptotic merits of the double $\ell_1$-regularized for heterogeneous overdispersed count data via negative binomial regressions. Under the restricted eigenvalue conditions, we prove the oracle inequalities for Lasso estimators of two partial regression coefficients for the first time, using concentration inequalities of empirical processes. Furthermore, derived from the oracle inequalities, the consistency and convergence rate for the estimators are the theoretical guarantees for further statistical inference. Finally, both simulations and a real data analysis demo…
We consider both $\ell _{0}$-penalized and $\ell _{0}$-constrained quantile regression estimators. For the $\ell _{0}$-penalized estimator, we derive an exponential inequality on the tail probability of excess quantile prediction risk and apply it to obtain non-asymptotic upper bounds on the mean-square parameter and regression function estimation errors. We also derive analogous results for the $\ell _{0}$-constrained estimator. The resulting rates of convergence are nearly minimax-optimal and the same as those for $\ell _{1}$-penalized and non-convex penalized estimators. Further, we charact…
Finite-sample performance of the maximum likelihood estimator in logistic regression
Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, USA（加州大学伯克利分校统计学系）；Department of Statistics, CREST/ENSAE Paris, Palaiseau, France（巴黎中央银行与应用经济学院统计学系）
We present a new method for post-selection inference for L1 (lasso)-penalized likelihood models, including generalized regression models. Our approach generalizes the post-selection framework presented in Lee et al (2014). The method provides p-values and confidence intervals that are asymptotically valid, conditional on the inherent selection done by the lasso. We present applications of this work to (regularized) logistic regression, Cox's proportional hazards model and the graphical lasso.
Analyzing polytomous response from a complex survey scheme, like stratified or cluster sampling is very crucial in several socio-economics applications. We present a class of minimum quasi weighted density power divergence estimators for the polytomous logistic regression model with such a complex survey. This family of semiparametric estimators is a robust generalization of the maximum quasi weighted likelihood estimator exploiting the advantages of the popular density power divergence measure. Accordingly robust estimators for the design effects are also derived. Robust testing of general li…
The Graduate University for Advanced Science (SOKENDAI)（综合研究大学院大学（SOKENDAI））
We propose an estimator of prediction error using an approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm that can be applied to a broad range of sparse penalties. Following Stein's lemma, the estimator of the generalized degrees of freedom, which is a key quantity for the construction of the estimator of the prediction error, is calculated at the AMP fixed point. The resulting form of the AMP-based estimator does not depend on the penalty function, and its value can be further improved by considering the correlation between predictors. The proposed estimator is asymptotically unbiased when the compone…
We wish to estimate conditional density using Gaussian Mixture Regression model with logistic weights and means depending on the covariate. We aim at selecting the number of components of this model as well as the other parameters by a penalized maximum likelihood approach. We provide a lower bound on penalty, proportional up to a logarithmic term to the dimension of each model, that ensures an oracle inequality for our estimator. Our theoretical analysis is supported by some numerical experiments.
The subject of tail estimation for randomly censored data from a heavy tailed distribution receives growing attention, motivated by applications for instance in actuarial statistics. The bias of the available estimators of the extreme value index can be substantial and depends strongly on the amount of censoring. We review the available estimators, propose a new bias reduced estimator, and show how shrinkage estimation can help to keep the MSE under control. A bootstrap algorithm is proposed to construct confidence intervals. We compare these new proposals with the existing estimators through …
In order to overcome multicollinearity, we propose a stochastic restricted Liu-type max- imum likelihood estimator by incorporating Liu-type maximum likelihood estimator (Inan and Erdo- gan, 2013) to the logistic regression model when the linear restrictions are stochastic. We also discuss the properties of the new estimator. Moreover, we give a method to choose the biasing parameter in the new estimator. Finally, a simulation study is given to show the performance of the new estimator.
Analyzing multi-layered graphical models provides insight into understanding the conditional relationships among nodes within layers after adjusting for and quantifying the effects of nodes from other layers. We obtain the penalized maximum likelihood estimator for Gaussian multi-layered graphical models, based on a computational approach involving screening of variables, iterative estimation of the directed edges between layers and undirected edges within layers and a final refitting and stability selection step that provides improved performance in finite sample settings. We establish the co…
