We study the epidemic source detection problem in contact tracing networks modeled as a graph-constrained maximum likelihood estimation problem using the susceptible-infected model in epidemiology. Based on a snapshot observation of the infection subgraph, we first study finite degree regular graphs and regular graphs with cycles separately, thereby establishing a mathematical equivalence in maximal likelihood ratio between the case of finite acyclic graphs and that of cyclic graphs. In particular, we show that the optimal solution of the maximum likelihood estimator can be refined to distances on graphs based on a novel statistical distance centrality that captures the optimality of the nonconvex problem. An efficient contact tracing algorithm is then proposed to solve the general case of finite degree-regular graphs with multiple cycles. Our performance evaluation on a variety of graphs shows that our algorithms outperform the existing state-of-the-art heuristics using contact tracing data from the SARS-CoV 2003 and COVID-19 pandemics by correctly identifying the superspreaders on some of the largest superspreading infection clusters in Singapore and Taiwan.
In the study of disease spreading on empirical complex networks in SIR model, initially infected nodes can be ranked according to some measure of their epidemic impact. The highest ranked nodes, also referred to as "superspreaders", are associated to dominant epidemic risks and therefore deserve special attention. In simulations on studied empirical complex networks, it is shown that the ranking depends on the dynamical regime of the disease spreading. A possible mechanism leading to this dependence is illustrated in an analytically tractable example. In systems where the allocation of resourc…
This study develops the epidemic hitting time (EHT) metric on graphs measuring the expected time an epidemic starting at node $a$ in a fully susceptible network takes to propagate and reach node $b$. An associated EHT centrality measure is then compared to degree, betweenness, spectral, and effective resistance centrality measures through exhaustive numerical simulations on several real-world network data-sets. We find two surprising observations: first, EHT centrality is highly correlated with effective resistance centrality; second, the EHT centrality measure is much more delocalized compare…
One long-standing question in epidemiological research is how best to allocate limited amounts of vaccine or similar preventative measures in order to minimize the severity of an epidemic. Much of the literature on the problem of vaccine allocation has focused on influenza epidemics and used mathematical models of epidemic spread to determine the effectiveness of proposed methods. Our work applies computational models of epidemics to the problem of geographically allocating a limited number of vaccines within several Texas counties. We developed a graph-based, stochastic model for epidemics th…
Epidemic modeling in complex networks has become one of the latest topics in recent times. The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model and its variants are often used for epidemic modeling. One important issue in epidemic modeling is the determination of the spreading ability of the nodes in the network. Thus, for example, can be detected in the early stages. In this study, we developed a centrality measure called Lexical Sorting Centrality (LSC) that distinguishes the spreading ability of the nodes. Using other centrality measures calculated for the nodes, LSC sorts the nodes in a way si…
Effective contact tracing is crucial to contain epidemic spreading without disrupting societal activities especially in the present time of coexistence with a pandemic outbreak. Large gatherings play a key role, potentially favouring superspreading events. However, the effects of tracing in large groups have not been fully assessed so far. We show that beside forward tracing, which reconstructs to whom disease spreads, and backward tracing, which searches from whom disease spreads, a third "sideward" tracing is always present, when tracing gatherings. This is an indirect tracing that detects i…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is the first epidemic in human history in which digital contact-tracing has been deployed at a global scale. Tracking and quarantining all the contacts of individuals who test positive to a virus can help slowing-down an epidemic, but the impact of contact-tracing is severely limited by the generally low adoption of contact-tracing apps in the population. We derive here an analytical expression for the effectiveness of contact-tracing app installation strategies in a SIR model on a given contact graph. We propose a decentralised heuristic to improve the effectiven…
During an epidemic, infectious individuals might not be detectable until some time after becoming infected. The studies show that carriers with mild or no symptoms are the main contributors to the transmission of a virus within the population. The average time it takes to develop the symptoms causes a delay in the spread dynamics of the disease. When considering the influence of delay on the disease propagation in epidemic networks, depending on the value of the time-delay and the network topology, the peak of epidemic could be considerably different in time, duration, and intensity. Motivated…
With the hit of new pandemic threats, scientific frameworks are needed to understand the unfolding of the epidemic. The use of mobile apps that are able to trace contacts is of utmost importance in order to control new infected cases and contain further propagation. Here we present a theoretical approach using both percolation and message--passing techniques, to the role of contact tracing, in mitigating an epidemic wave. We show how the increase of the app adoption level raises the value of the epidemic threshold, which is eventually maximized when high-degree nodes are preferentially targete…
The graph invariant examined in this paper is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of a graph. Previous work demonstrates the tight relationship between this invariant, the birth and death rate of a contagion spreading on the graph, and the trajectory of the contagion over time. We begin by conducting a simulation confirming this and explore bounds on the birth and death rate in terms of well-known graph invariants. As a result, the change in the largest eigenvalue resulting from removal of a vertex in the network is the best measure of effectiveness of interventions that slow the sp…
Contact tracing via digital tracking applications installed on mobile phones is an important tool for controlling epidemic spreading. Its effectivity can be quantified by modifying the standard methodology for analyzing percolation and connectivity of contact networks. We apply this framework to networks with varying degree distributions, numbers of application users, and probabilities of quarantine failures. Further, we study structured populations with homophily and heterophily and the possibility of degree-targeted application distribution. Our results are based on a combination of explicit…
Contact tracing has been extensively studied from different perspectives in recent years. However, there is no clear indication of why this intervention has proven effective in some epidemics (SARS) and mostly ineffective in some others (COVID-19). Here, we perform an exhaustive evaluation of random testing and contact tracing on novel superspreading random networks to try to identify which epidemics are more containable with such measures. We also explore the suitability of positive rates as a proxy of the actual infection statuses of the population. Moreover, we propose novel ideal strategie…
We analyze a recently proposed temporal centrality measure applied to an empirical network based on person-to-person contacts in an emergency department of a busy urban hospital. We show that temporal centrality identifies a distinct set of top-spreaders than centrality based on the time-aggregated binarized contact matrix, so that taken together, the accuracy of capturing top-spreaders improves significantly. However, with respect to predicting epidemic outcome, the temporal measure does not necessarily outperform less complex measures. Our results also show that other temporal markers such a…
Targeting influential nodes in complex networks allows fastening or hindering rumors, epidemics, and electric blackouts. Since communities are prevalent in real-world networks, community-aware centrality measures exploit this information to target influential nodes. Researches show that they compare favorably with classical measures that are agnostic about the community structure. Although the diffusion process is of prime importance, previous studies consider mainly the famous Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic propagation model. This work investigates the consistency of previous a…
The non-backtracking matrix and its eigenvalues have many applications in network science and graph mining, such as node and edge centrality, community detection, length spectrum theory, graph distance, and epidemic and percolation thresholds. Moreover, in network epidemiology, the reciprocal of the largest eigenvalue of the non-backtracking matrix is a good approximation for the epidemic threshold of certain network dynamics. In this work, we develop techniques that identify which nodes have the largest impact on the leading non-backtracking eigenvalue. We do so by studying the behavior of th…
The Cuban contact-tracing detection system set up in 1986 allowed the reconstruction and analysis of the sexual network underlying the epidemic (5,389 vertices and 4,073 edges, giant component of 2,386 nodes and 3,168 edges), shedding light onto the spread of HIV and the role of contact-tracing. Clustering based on modularity optimization provides a better visualization and understanding of the network, in combination with the study of covariates. The graph has a globally low but heterogeneous density, with clusters of high intraconnectivity but low interconnectivity. Though descriptive, our r…
A key characteristic of the spread of infectious diseases is their ability to use efficient transmission paths within contact graphs. This enables the pathogen to maximise infection rates and spread within a target population. In this work, we devise techniques to localise infections and decrease infection rates based on a principled analysis of disease transmission paths within human-contact networks (proximity graphs). Experimental results of disease spreading shows that that at low visibility rates contact tracing slows disease spreading. However to stop disease spreading, contact tracing r…
How does one find important or influential people in an online social network? Researchers have proposed a variety of centrality measures to identify individuals that are, for example, often visited by a random walk, infected in an epidemic, or receive many messages from friends. Recent research suggests that a social media users' capacity to respond to an incoming message is constrained by their finite attention, which they divide over all incoming information, i.e., information sent by users they follow. We propose a new measure of centrality --- limited-attention version of Bonacich's Alpha…
The control of epidemic spreading is essential to avoid potential fatal consequences and also, to lessen unforeseen socio-economic impact. The need for effective control is exemplified during the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, which has inflicted near to a thousand deaths as well as bankruptcies of airlines and related businesses. In this article, we examine the efficacy of control strategies on the propagation of infectious diseases based on removing connections within real world airline network with the associated economic and social costs taken into account through defini…
Contact tracing is a key tool for managing epidemic diseases like HIV, tuberculosis, and COVID-19. Manual investigations by human contact tracers remain a dominant way in which this is carried out. This process is limited by the number of contact tracers available, who are often overburdened during an outbreak or epidemic. As a result, a crucial decision in any contact tracing strategy is, given a set of contacts, which person should a tracer trace next? In this work, we develop a formal model that articulates these questions and provides a framework for comparing contact tracing strategies. T…
In this paper we study a susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model with asymptomatic patients, contact tracing and isolation on a configuration network. Using degree based approximation, we derive a system of differential equations for this model. This system can not be solved analytically. We present an early-time analysis for the model. The early-time analysis produces an epidemic threshold. On one side of the threshold, the disease dies out quickly. On the other side, a significant fraction of the population are infected. The threshold only depends on the parameters of the disease, the m…
Identifying key nodes is crucial for accelerating or impeding dynamic spreading in a network. Community-aware centrality measures tackle this problem by exploiting the community structure of a network. Although there is a growing trend to design new community-aware centrality measures, there is no systematic investigation of the proposed measures' effectiveness. This study performs an extensive comparative evaluation of prominent community-aware centrality measures using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model on real-world online social networks. Overall, results show that K-shell with…
The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies that strike a balance between risk management and cost. Two major techniques policy makers have at their disposal are: epidemic modeling and contact tracing. Models are used to forecast the evolution of the epidemic both globally and regionally, while contact tracing is used to reconstruct the chain of people who have been potentially infected, so that they can…
Recent studies in network science and control have shown a meaningful relationship between the epidemic processes (e.g., COVID-19 spread) and some network properties. This paper studies how such network properties, namely clustering coefficient and centrality measures (or node influence metrics), affect the spread of viruses and the growth of epidemics over scale-free networks. The results can be used to target individuals (the nodes in the network) to \textit{flatten the infection curve}. This so-called flattening of the infection curve is to reduce the health service costs and burden to the …
Understanding the importance of links in transmitting information in a network can provide ways to hinder or postpone ongoing dynamical phenomena like the spreading of epidemic or the diffusion of information. In this work, we propose a new measure based on stochastic diffusion processes, the \textit{transmission centrality}, that captures the importance of links by estimating the average number of nodes to whom they transfer information during a global spreading diffusion process. We propose a simple algorithmic solution to compute transmission centrality and to approximate it in very large n…
Understanding the network structure, and finding out the influential nodes is a challenging issue in the large networks. Identifying the most influential nodes in the network can be useful in many applications like immunization of nodes in case of epidemic spreading, during intentional attacks on complex networks. A lot of research is done to devise centrality measures which could efficiently identify the most influential nodes in the network. There are two major approaches to the problem: On one hand, deterministic strategies that exploit knowledge about the overall network topology in order …
Many popular measures used in social network analysis, including centrality, are based on the random walk. The random walk is a model of a stochastic process where a node interacts with one other node at a time. However, the random walk may not be appropriate for modeling social phenomena, including epidemics and information diffusion, in which one node may interact with many others at the same time, for example, by broadcasting the virus or information to its neighbors. To produce meaningful results, social network analysis algorithms have to take into account the nature of interactions betwe…
Efficient contact tracing and isolation is an effective strategy to control epidemics. It was used effectively during the Ebola epidemic and successfully implemented in several parts of the world during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. An important consideration in contact tracing is the budget on the number of individuals asked to quarantine -- the budget is limited for socioeconomic reasons. In this paper, we present a Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework to formulate the problem of using contact tracing to reduce the size of an outbreak while asking a limited number of people to quarantine…
We use the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for disease spread over a network, and empirically study how well various centrality measures perform at identifying which nodes in a network will be the best spreaders of disease on 10 real-world networks. We find that the relative performance of degree, shell number and other centrality measures can be sensitive to B, the probability that an infected node will transmit the disease to a susceptible node. We also find that eigenvector centrality performs very well in general for values of B above the epidemic threshold.
In this paper, we propose a trust layer on top of Bluetooth and similar wireless communication technologies that can form mesh networks. This layer as a protocol enables computing trust scores based on proximity and bi-directional transfer of messages in multiple hops across a network of mobile devices. We describe factors and an approach for determining these trust scores and highlight its applications during epidemics such as COVID-19 through improved contact-tracing, better privacy and verification for sensitive data sharing in the numerous Bluetooth and GPS based mobile applications that a…
How to identify the influential spreaders in social networks is crucial for accelerating/hindering information diffusion, increasing product exposure, controlling diseases and rumors, and so on. In this paper, by viewing the k-shell value of each node as its mass and the shortest path distance between two nodes as their distance, then inspired by the idea of the gravity formula, we propose a gravity centrality index to identify the influential spreaders in complex networks. The comparison between the gravity centrality index and some well-known centralities, such as degree centrality, betweenn…
To study the propagation of information from individual to individual, we need mobility datasets. Existing datasets are not satisfactory because they are too small, inaccurate or target a homogeneous subset of population. To draw valid conclusions, we need sufficiently large and heterogeneous datasets. Thus we aim for a passive non-intrusive data collection method, based on sniffers that are to be deployed at some well-chosen street intersections. To this end, we need optimization techniques for efficient placement of sniffers. We introduce a heuristic, based on graph theory notions like the v…
We study the popular centrality measure known as effective conductance or in some circles as information centrality. This is an important notion of centrality for undirected networks, with many applications, e.g., for random walks, electrical resistor networks, epidemic spreading, etc. In this paper, we first reinterpret this measure in terms of modulus (energy) of families of walks on the network. This modulus centrality measure coincides with the effective conductance measure on simple undirected networks, and extends it to much more general situations, e.g., directed networks as well. Secon…
In opportunistic networks, the use of social metrics (e.g., degree, closeness and betweenness centrality) of human mobility network, has recently been shown to be an effective solution to improve the performance of opportunistic forwarding algorithms. Most of the current social-based forwarding schemes exploit some globally defined node centrality, resulting in a bias towards the most popular nodes. However, these nodes may not be appropriate relay candidates for some target nodes, because they may have low importance relative to these subsets of target nodes. In this paper, to improve the opp…
Understanding the epidemic dynamics, and finding out efficient techniques to control it, is a challenging issue. A lot of research has been done on targeted immunization strategies, exploiting various global network topological properties. However, in practice, information about the global structure of the contact network may not be available. Therefore, immunization strategies that can deal with a limited knowledge of the network structure are required. In this paper, we propose targeted immunization strategies that require information only at the community level. Results of our investigation…
In this paper, we study the dynamics of epidemic processes taking place in adaptive networks of arbitrary topology. We focus our study on the adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (ASIS) model, where healthy individuals are allowed to temporarily cut edges connecting them to infected nodes in order to prevent the spread of the infection. In this paper, we derive a closed-form expression for a lower bound on the epidemic threshold of the ASIS model in arbitrary networks with heterogeneous node and edge dynamics. For networks with homogeneous node and edge dynamics, we show that the resultin…
The spectrum of the non-backtracking matrix plays a crucial role in determining various structural and dynamical properties of networked systems, ranging from the threshold in bond percolation and non-recurrent epidemic processes, to community structure, to node importance. Here we calculate the largest eigenvalue of the non-backtracking matrix and the associated non-backtracking centrality for uncorrelated random networks, finding expressions in excellent agreement with numerical results. We show however that the same formulas do not work well for many real-world networks. We identify the mec…
We study the interplay between a dynamic process and the structure of the network on which it is defined. Specifically, we examine the impact of this interaction on the quality-measure of network clusters and node centrality. This enables us to effectively identify network communities and important nodes participating in the dynamics. As the first step towards this objective, we introduce an umbrella framework for defining and characterizing an ensemble of dynamic processes on a network. This framework generalizes the traditional Laplacian framework to continuous-time biased random walks and a…
It is of paramount importance to uncover influential nodes to control diffusion phenomena in a network. In recent works, there is a growing trend to investigate the role of the community structure to solve this issue. Up to now, the vast majority of the so-called community-aware centrality measures rely on non-overlapping community structure. However, in many real-world networks, such as social networks, the communities overlap. In other words, a node can belong to multiple communities. To overcome this drawback, we propose and investigate the "Overlapping Modularity Vitality" centrality measu…
Information flow, opinion, and epidemics spread over structured networks. When using individual node centrality indicators to predict which nodes will be among the top influencers or spreaders in a large network, no single centrality has consistently good ranking power. We show that statistical classifiers using two or more centralities as input are instead consistently predictive over many diverse, static real-world topologies. Certain pairs of centralities cooperate particularly well in statistically drawing the boundary between the top spreaders and the rest: local centralities measuring th…
Social networks are discrete systems with a large amount of heterogeneity among nodes (individuals). Measures of centrality aim at a quantification of nodes' importance for structure and function. Here we ask to which extent the most central nodes can be found by purely local search. We find that many networks have close-to-optimal searchability under eigenvector centrality, outperforming searches for degree and betweenness. Searchability of the strongest spreaders in epidemic dynamics tends to be substantially larger for supercritical than for subcritical spreading.
Network immunization is an extensively recognized issue in several domains like virtual network security, public health and social media, to deal with the problem of node inoculation so as to minimize the transmission through the links existed in these networks. We aim to identify top ranked nodes to immunize networks, leading to control the outbreak of epidemics or misinformation. We consider group based centrality and define a heuristic objective criteria to establish the target of key nodes finding in network which if immunized result in essential network vulnerability. We propose a group b…
Influential nodes play a critical role in boosting or curbing spreading phenomena in complex networks. Numerous centrality measures have been proposed for identifying and ranking the nodes according to their importance. Classical centrality measures rely on various local or global properties of the nodes. They do not take into account the network community structure. Recently, a growing number of researches have shifted to community-aware centrality measures. Indeed, it is a ubiquitous feature in a vast majority of real-world networks. In the literature, the focus is on designing community-awa…
We consider the problem of identifying the source of an epidemic, spreading through a network, from a complete observation of the infected nodes in a snapshot of the network. Previous work on the problem has often employed geometric, spectral or heuristic approaches to identify the source, with the trees being the most studied network topology. We take a fully statistical approach and derive novel recursions to compute the Bayes optimal solution, under a susceptible-infected (SI) epidemic model. Our analysis is time and rate independent, and holds for general network topologies. We then provid…
How to avoid a second wave of COVID-19 after reopening the economy is a pressing question. The extremely high basic reproductive number $R_0$ (5.7 to 6.4, shown in new studies) of SARS-CoV-2 further complicates the challenge. Here we assess effects of Social distancing 2.0, i.e. proximity alert (to maintain inter-personal distance) plus privacy-preserving contact tracing. To solve the dual task, we developed an open source mobile app. The app uses a Bluetooth-based, decentralized contact tracing platform over which the anonymous user ID cannot be linked by the government or a third party. Mode…
The reconstruction of missing information in epidemic spreading on contact networks can be essential in the prevention and containment strategies. The identification and warning of infectious but asymptomatic individuals (i.e., contact tracing), the well-known patient-zero problem, or the inference of the infectivity values in structured populations are examples of significant epidemic inference problems. As the number of possible epidemic cascades grows exponentially with the number of individuals involved and only an almost negligible subset of them is compatible with the observations (e.g.,…
The identification of which nodes are optimal seeds for spreading processes on a network is a non-trivial problem that has attracted much interest recently. While activity has mostly focused on non-recurrent type of dynamics, here we consider the problem for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) spreading model, where an outbreak seeded in one node can originate an infinite activity avalanche. We apply the theoretical framework for avalanches on networks proposed by Larremore et al. [Phys. Rev. E 85, 066131 (2012)], to obtain detailed quantitative predictions for the spreading influence o…
Identifying influential nodes in a network is a fundamental issue due to its wide applications, such as accelerating information diffusion or halting virus spreading. Many measures based on the network topology have emerged over the years to identify influential nodes such as Betweenness, Closeness, and Eigenvalue centrality. However, although most real-world networks are modular, few measures exploit this property. Recent works have shown that it has a significant effect on the dynamics on networks. In a modular network, a node has two types of influence: a local influence (on the nodes of it…
The identification of the most influential spreaders in networks is important to control and understand the spreading capabilities of the system as well as to ensure an efficient information diffusion such as in rumor-like dynamics. Recent works have suggested that the identification of influential spreaders is not independent of the dynamics being studied. For instance, the key disease spreaders might not necessarily be so when it comes to analyze social contagion or rumor propagation. Additionally, it has been shown that different metrics (degree, coreness, etc) might identify different infl…
