解开超级链接:流行病反应的拓扑结构(Covid-19)
Unlinking super-linkers: the topology of epidemic response (Covid-19)
摘要:
传染病传播的一个关键特征是它们能够在接触图中使用有效的传播路径。这使得病原体能够最大限度地提高感染率并在目标人群中传播。在这项工作中,我们设计的技术,以本地化的感染和降低感染率的基础上,人类接触网络(邻近图)内的疾病传播路径的原则性分析。疾病传播的实验结果表明,在低能见度下,接触者追踪减缓了疾病的传播。然而,为了阻止疾病传播,接触者追踪需要接近度图的显著可见性(至少60%)和将一半人口隔离的能力。我们发现,主动隔离超级链接-关键的邻近遭遇-具有显着的好处:基于对邻近图的35%可见性,有针对性地隔离四分之一的人口,可以防止流行病爆发。事实证明,隔离超级传播者比追踪和测试接触者更有效,但不如锁定超级链接有效。我们强调的重要作用,拓扑结构的流行病爆发。我们认为,通过禁用超级链接和超级传播者对人群进行主动接种,可能与接触者追踪和检测一起发挥重要的补充作用,作为应对流行病爆发的复杂公共卫生应对措施的一部分。
英文摘要:
A key characteristic of the spread of infectious diseases is their ability to use efficient transmission paths within contact graphs. This enables the pathogen to maximise infection rates and spread within a target population. In this work, we devise techniques to localise infections and decrease infection rates based on a principled analysis of disease transmission paths within human-contact networks (proximity graphs). Experimental results of disease spreading shows that that at low visibility rates contact tracing slows disease spreading. However to stop disease spreading, contact tracing requires both significant visibility (at least 60%) into the proximity graph and the ability to place half of the population under isolation. We find that pro-actively isolating super-links -- key proximity encounters -- has significant benefits: targeted isolation of a fourth of the population based on 35% visibility into the proximity graph prevents an epidemic outbreak. It turns out that isolating super-spreaders is more effective than contact tracing and testing but less effective than targeting super-links. We highlight the important role of topology in epidemic outbreaks. We argue that proactive innoculation of a population by disabling super-links and super-spreaders may have an important complimentary role alongside contact tracing and testing as part of a sophisticated public-health response to epidemic outbreaks.
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