COVID的教训：有没有办法减少COVID-19对美国经济的负面影响？
COVID Lessons: Was there any way to reduce the negative effect of COVID-19 on the United States economy?
摘要：
本文旨在研究COVID-19的经济影响。为了做到这一点，在第一步中，我证明了调整后的SEQIER模型，这是SEIR模型的一种推广形式，在某种程度上它可以很好地捕捉数据的非线性，因此很好地拟合了真实的COVID引起的每日死亡数据。然后，我使用这个带有额外参数的模型来评估COVID-19通过就业市场带来的经济影响。结果显示，美国政府可以实施一项简单的策略，以减少COVID-19的负面影响。正因为如此，论文标题的答案是肯定的。如果封锁政策考虑到人口的异质性特征，对老年人施加更多限制，并控制他们与其他人口之间的互动，COVID-19对人们生活和美国经济的破坏性影响将大大减少。具体而言，根据本文的结果，这一战略可以使美国的死亡率和GDP损失分别减少0.03%和2%。通过将这些结果与死亡率和GDP损失分别为0.1%和3.5%的实际数据进行比较，我们可以计算出死亡率降低了0.07%，这意味着对于相同百分比的GDP损失，执行最佳目标政策可以挽救2/3的生命。于二零二零年，约有378，000人死于COVID-19，因此将死亡率降至0. 03%意味着挽救约280，000人的生命，这是巨大的。
英文摘要：
This paper aims to study the economic impact of COVID-19. To do that, in the first step, I showed that the adjusted SEQIER model, which is a generalization form of SEIR model, is a good fit to the real COVID-induced daily death data in a way that it could capture the nonlinearities of the data very well. Then, I used this model with extra parameters to evaluate the economic effect of COVID-19 through job market. The results show that there was a simple strategy that US government could implemented in order to reduce the negative effect of COVID-19. Because of that the answer to the paper's title is yes. If lockdown policies consider the heterogenous characteristics of population and impose more restrictions on old people and control the interactions between them and the rest of population the devastating impact of COVID-19 on people lives and US economy reduced dramatically. Specifically, based on this paper's results, this strategy could reduce the death rate and GDP loss of the United States 0.03 percent and 2 percent respectively. By comparing these results with actual data which show death rate and GDP loss 0.1 percent and 3.5 percent respectively, we could figure out that death rate reduction is 0.07 percent which means for the same percent of GDP loss executing optimal targeted policy could save 2/3 lives. Approximately, 378,000 persons dead because of COVID-19 during 2020, hence reducing death rate to 0.03 percent means saving around 280,000 lives, which is huge.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
