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arXiv 2108.06000math.OC
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利用解析随机动态规划进行变效率储能套利

Arbitraging Variable Efficiency Energy Storage using Analytical Stochastic Dynamic Programming

Ningkun Zheng, Joshua Jaworski, Bolun Xu

摘要:

提出了一种计算效率高的随机动态规划算法,用于解决考虑充放电效率变化的储能价格套利问题。我们制定的价格套利问题,使用随机动态规划和模型的实时价格作为一个马尔可夫过程。然后,我们提出了一个分析解决方案的算法,使用分段线性逼近的价值去功能。我们的解决方案算法实现了极端的计算性能,并解决了建议的套利问题,在个人电脑上在小于一秒的一个工作日。我们展示了我们的方法,使用历史价格数据从纽约独立系统运营商的四个价格区,案例研究比较不同的随机模型和存储设置的性能。我们的研究结果表明,该方法捕获50%至90%的套利利润相比,完美的价格预测。特别是,我们的方法在四个价格区中的三个价格区中捕获了超过80%的套利利润,当考虑电池的使用时间超过两个小时和实际的退化成本时。

英文摘要:

This paper presents a computation-efficient stochastic dynamic programming algorithm for solving energy storage price arbitrage considering variable charge and discharge efficiencies. We formulate the price arbitrage problem using stochastic dynamic programming and model real-time prices as a Markov process. Then we propose an analytical solution algorithm using a piecewise linear approximation of the value-to-go function. Our solution algorithm achieves extreme computation performance and solves the proposed arbitrage problem for one operating day in less than one second on a personal computer. We demonstrate our approach using historical price data from four price zones in New York Independent System Operator, with case studies comparing the performance of different stochastic models and storage settings. Our results show that the proposed method captures 50% to 90% of arbitrage profit compared to perfect price forecasts. In particular, our method captures more than 80% of arbitrage profit in three out of the four price zones when considering batteries with more than two-hour duration and realistic degradation cost.

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