党派影响和政治局外人

摘要：

我们研究的影响，引入一个政治局外人的提名过程中，导致选举。为此，我们开发了一个连续的游戏，政治家-内部人士和外部人士-提出一个平台提供给一个政党，而政党反过来决定接受哪个提议;这个过程符合投票。政党与候选人匹配的评估中包含党派影响，这是一个由选民对政党的态度组成的变量。党派情绪可能会以积极或消极的方式影响选民对比赛的评价。我们描述的条件，导致提名一个局外人，并确定她作为一个潜在的候选人是否有任何影响的获胜政策和选民的福利。我们发现，局外人的胜利通常会导致政策极化，党派影响比意识形态极端主义对福利的影响更显著。

英文摘要：

We examine the effects of introducing a political outsider to the nomination process leading to an election. To this end, we develop a sequential game where politicians -- insiders and outsiders -- make a platform offer to a party, and parties in turn decide which offer to accept; this process conforms the voting ballot. Embedded in the evaluation of a party-candidate match is partisan affect, a variable comprising the attitudes of voters towards the party. Partisan affect may bias the electorate's appraisal of a match in a positive or negative way. We characterize the conditions that lead to the nomination of an outsider and determine whether her introduction as a potential candidate has any effect on the winning policy and on the welfare of voters. We find that the victory of an outsider generally leads to policy polarization, and that partisan affect has a more significant effect on welfare than ideology extremism.

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