危机与政治极化：更好地理解冲击和媒体的时机和影响
Crises and Political Polarization: Towards a Better Understanding of the Timing and Impact of Shocks and Media
摘要：
我们通过对2020年美国代表性样本的纵向多波调查，分析变革的时机和渠道，研究危机如何改变社会。这种方法使我们能够克服以往研究的一些局限性，并揭示新的见解：（1）在危机期间有负面个人经历的个人变得更加倾向于福利支出，特别是他们认为对他们个人有利的政策，他们变得不那么信任机构;（2）间接冲击或仅仅暴露于危机并没有类似的影响;（3）政策偏好和机构信任在负面经历后会迅速改变;（4）消费党派媒体可以通过扭曲对现实的看法来减轻或加剧这些影响。在一项实验中，我们发现，让个体接触相同的信息可以重新校准扭曲的感知，并产生持久的影响。使用机器学习模型来测试异质处理效应，我们发现负面的个人经历并没有使个人对信息处理更敏感，这表明生活和感知的经历在危机期间改变偏好方面发挥着同样重要的作用。
英文摘要：
We investigate how crises alter societies by analyzing the timing and channels of change using a longitudinal multi-wave survey of a representative sample of Americans throughout 2020. This methodology allows us to overcome some of the limitations of previous studies and uncover novel insights: (1) individuals with a negative personal experience during a crisis become more pro-welfare spending, in particular for policies they perceive will benefit them personally, and they become less trusting of institutions; (2) indirect shocks or the mere exposure to the crisis doesn't have a similar effect; (3) policy preferences and institutional trust can change quickly after a negative experience; and (4) consuming partisan media can mitigate or exacerbate these effects by distorting perceptions of reality. In an experiment, we find that exposing individuals to the same information can recalibrate distorted perceptions with lasting effects. Using a machine learning model to test for heterogeneous treatment effects, we find a negative personal experience did not make individuals more responsive to the information treatment, suggesting that lived and perceived experiences play an equally important role in changing preferences during a crisis.
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