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arXiv 2104.12919stat.APstat.OT
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核系统热工水力学程序中物理模型参数的逆不确定性量化综述

A Comprehensive Survey of Inverse Uncertainty Quantification of Physical Model Parameters in Nuclear System Thermal-Hydraulics Codes

Xu Wu, Ziyu Xie, Farah Alsafadi, Tomasz Kozlowski

摘要:

不确定性量化(UQ)是计算模型验证中的一个重要步骤,因为模型准确性的评估需要对模型预测中的不确定性进行具体的、可量化的测量。核领域的UQ概念通常是指前向UQ(FUQ),其中信息流是从输入到输出。逆UQ(IUQ),其中信息流是从模型输出和实验数据到输入,是UQ的一个同样重要的组成部分,但一直被严重低估,直到最近。FUQ需要专家意见或用户自我评估指定的输入不确定性的知识。IUQ是根据实验数据对输入不确定性进行反量化的过程。本文旨在提供一个全面的和比较讨论的主要方面的IUQ方法,已被用于系统热工水力学代码的物理模型。IUQ方法可以分为三大类:频率论(确定性),贝叶斯(概率)和经验(实验设计)。我们使用八个指标来评估IUQ方法,包括可靠性,复杂性,可访问性,独立性,灵活性,全面性,透明度和易处理性。十二IUQ方法进行审查,比较,并根据这八个指标进行评估。这种比较评价将为用户根据所调查的IUQ问题选择合适的IUQ方法提供很好的指导。

英文摘要:

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an essential step in computational model validation because assessment of the model accuracy requires a concrete, quantifiable measure of uncertainty in the model predictions. The concept of UQ in the nuclear community generally means forward UQ (FUQ), in which the information flow is from the inputs to the outputs. Inverse UQ (IUQ), in which the information flow is from the model outputs and experimental data to the inputs, is an equally important component of UQ but has been significantly underrated until recently. FUQ requires knowledge in the input uncertainties which has been specified by expert opinion or user self-evaluation. IUQ is defined as the process to inversely quantify the input uncertainties based on experimental data. This review paper aims to provide a comprehensive and comparative discussion of the major aspects of the IUQ methodologies that have been used on the physical models in system thermal-hydraulics codes. IUQ methods can be categorized by three main groups: frequentist (deterministic), Bayesian (probabilistic), and empirical (design-of-experiments). We used eight metrics to evaluate an IUQ method, including solidity, complexity, accessibility, independence, flexibility, comprehensiveness, transparency, and tractability. Twelve IUQ methods are reviewed, compared, and evaluated based on these eight metrics. Such comparative evaluation will provide a good guidance for users to select a proper IUQ method based on the IUQ problem under investigation.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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