电网频率的现实统计模型
Towards realistic statistical models of the grid frequency
摘要：
可再生能源在电网中的份额增加导致电网频率与标称值的较大偏差，从而导致更具挑战性的控制及其建模。在本文中，我们专注于英国的电力系统的电网频率，因为可再生能源的大份额使其成为其他电网在未来的模板，因为它具有特殊的统计特性，如波动，周期性，双模态的长期相关性，以及电网频率分布的重尾。通过修改摆动方程和基本的噪声统计，我们证明定性和定量，我们重现这些特殊的统计特性。我们将我们的模型应用于现实的频率响应服务，并显示我们的预测优于标准的摇摆方程模型。
英文摘要：
Increased share of renewable sources of energy in a power grid leads to larger deviations in grid frequency from the nominal value resulting in more challenging control and its modelling. In this paper we focus on the grid frequency for the power system of Great Britain because the large share of renewables makes it a template for other power grids in the future and because it exhibits peculiar statistical properties, such as long-term correlations in fluctuations, periodicity, bi-modality,and heavy tails in the distribution of the grid frequency. By modifications of the swing equation and the underlying noise statistics, which we justify qualitatively and quantitatively, we reproduce these peculiar statistical properties. We apply our model to realistic frequency response services and show our predictions outperform a standard swing equation model.
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