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arXiv 2103.11944cs.AIcs.SE
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通过自动流程发现和深度学习从事件建模中学习准确的业务流程模拟模型

Learning Accurate Business Process Simulation Models from Event Logs via Automated Process Discovery and Deep Learning

University of Tartu(塔尔图大学);Universidad de los Andes(洛斯安第斯大学);Apromore(Apromore公司)

Manuel Camargo, Marlon Dumas, Oscar González-Rojas

摘要:

业务流程模拟是一种众所周知的方法,用于估计流程更改对时间和成本度量的影响--一种称为假设流程分析的实践。这种估计的有用性取决于基本模拟模型的准确性。数据驱动仿真(DDS)方法利用流程挖掘技术从事件日志中学习流程仿真模型。实证研究表明,虽然DDS模型充分捕捉到观察到的活动序列及其频率,但它们无法准确捕捉到现实生活中的过程的时间动态。相比之下,生成式深度学习(DL)模型能够更好地捕捉这种时间动态。DL模型的缺点是,由于其黑盒性质,用户无法更改它们进行假设分析。本文提出了一种混合的方法来学习过程仿真模型的事件日志,其中(随机)过程模型是通过DDS技术提取,然后结合DL模型生成时间戳的事件序列。实验评估表明,所得到的混合仿真模型匹配的时间精度的纯DL模型,同时部分保留了什么,如果DDS方法的分析能力。

英文摘要:

Business process simulation is a well-known approach to estimate the impact of changes to a process with respect to time and cost measures -- a practice known as what-if process analysis. The usefulness of such estimations hinges on the accuracy of the underlying simulation model. Data-Driven Simulation (DDS) methods leverage process mining techniques to learn process simulation models from event logs. Empirical studies have shown that, while DDS models adequately capture the observed sequences of activities and their frequencies, they fail to accurately capture the temporal dynamics of real-life processes. In contrast, generative Deep Learning (DL) models are better able to capture such temporal dynamics. The drawback of DL models is that users cannot alter them for what-if analysis due to their black-box nature. This paper presents a hybrid approach to learn process simulation models from event logs wherein a (stochastic) process model is extracted via DDS techniques, and then combined with a DL model to generate timestamped event sequences. An experimental evaluation shows that the resulting hybrid simulation models match the temporal accuracy of pure DL models, while partially retaining the what-if analysis capability of DDS approaches.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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