中国城市流行病危险指数：小城市为何成为流行热点？
Urban Epidemic Hazard Index for Chinese Cities: Why Did Small Cities Become Epidemic Hotspots?
摘要：
多个中小城市（大部分位于中国北方）于二零二一年初第二波COVID-19传播期间成为疫情热点。尽管对潜在的社会经济原因进行了定性讨论，但仍不清楚如何从定量方法解释这一模式。通过城市流行病危害指数（EpiRank）的发展，我们提出了对这一现象的数学解释。该指数是从一个多层交通网络模型上的流行病模拟局部SEIR传输动力学，其特征在于城市内和城市间的车厢人口流动与详细的数学描述。从本质上讲，我们认为，这些突出的城市具有更大的流行病的危险，由于大的区域人口和小的城际交通的综合影响。该指标具有动态性和适用性，可作为我国城市传染病风险评估和应急规划的参考指标;模型框架模块化，适用于其他国家。
英文摘要：
Multiple small- to middle-scale cities, mostly located in northern China, became epidemic hotspots during the second wave of the spread of COVID-19 in early 2021. Despite qualitative discussions of potential social-economic causes, it remains unclear how this pattern could be accounted for from a quantitative approach. Through the development of an urban epidemic hazard index (EpiRank), we came up with a mathematical explanation for this phenomenon. The index is constructed from epidemic simulations on a multi-layer transportation network model on top of local SEIR transmission dynamics, which characterizes intra- and inter-city compartment population flow with a detailed mathematical description. Essentially, we argue that these highlighted cities possess greater epidemic hazards due to the combined effect of large regional population and small inter-city transportation. The proposed index, dynamic and applicable to different epidemic settings, could be a useful indicator for the risk assessment and response planning of urban epidemic hazards in China; the model framework is modularized and can be adapted for other nations without much difficulty.
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