城市法规如何反映气候风险？

中文摘要 AI 辅助

气候变化正在加剧自然灾害，而应对这些灾害的责任主要落在地方政府身上。然而，市政法规对灾害的表述，以及这些要求是否与各城市的风险状况相匹配，此前尚未得到量化研究。我分析了来自美国204个城市市政法规中的360万条句子，并将每个城市关于灾害的文本与其在FEMA国家风险指数中的实际风险进行了比较。我记录了四种模式。第一，法规文本中仅有少量条款与自然灾害相关（占1.5%），且高风险城市的相关文本略多。第二，灾害覆盖高度集中于洪水（占灾害相关文本的61%），尽管洪水仅占平均城市风险的9%。第三，城市法规强调应急响应而非预防。应急管理是最大的监管类别，而土地利用是最小的。第四，法规虽涉及各地相关风险类型，但关联较为松散。中等城市需要重新分配其70%的监管文本才能与其风险状况相匹配。结果表明，美国城市法规并未涵盖城市所面临的大部分灾害的监管规定。

英文摘要

Climate change is intensifying natural hazards, and preparing cities for them falls primarily to local governments. Yet what municipal codes say about hazards, and whether their requirements match each city's risk profile, has not been measured. I analyze 3.6 million sentences from 204 U.S. cities' municipal codes and compare each city's hazard text to its actual risk from FEMA's National Risk Index. I document four patterns. First, a small share of code text consists of provisions relevant for natural hazards (1.5%), and codes in high-risk cities contain marginally more. Second, hazard coverage is highly concentrated on flooding (61% of hazard-relevant text), even though flooding accounts for only 9% of the average city's risk. Third, city codes emphasize emergency response over prevention. Emergency management is the largest regulatory category, and land use is the smallest. Fourth, codes track the types of risks relevant to each location, but only loosely. The median city would need to reallocate 70% of its regulatory text to match its risk profile. The results suggest that U.S. city codes do not include regulation for most of the hazards cities face.

发表机构

• Yale School of the Environment（耶鲁环境学院）

机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。