传染热点之间的空间干扰：流行病凝聚和最佳风速
Spatial interference between infectious hotspots: epidemic condensation and optimal windspeed
摘要：
我们讨论了两个传染性热点之间的空间干扰的影响，作为一个功能的个人之间的流动性（风速）和他们的相对程度的传染性。只要上游热点的传染性小于下游热点，增加风速会导致下游热点的感染峰单调下降。一旦上游热点变得比下游热点的传染性大大约两倍到五倍，最佳风速就会出现，由此在下游热点中获得局部最小峰值强度，以及局部最大值，超过该局部最大值，风的有益效果就会恢复。由于这种非单调趋势使人想起非理想流体的状态方程，我们称上述现象为流行病凝聚。当上游热点的相对传染性超过约5倍时，高于最佳速度的风的有益效果完全丧失：任何高于最佳速度的风速都会导致更高的感染峰值。研究还发现，两个热点之间的空间相关性衰减比它们的反比距离慢得多。希望上述研究结果能为不同城市和城市群之间的最优限制政策提供定性线索。
英文摘要：
We discuss the effects of spatial interference between two infectious hotspots as a function of the mobility of individuals (wind speed) between the two and their relative degree of infectivity. As long as the upstream hotspot is less contagious than the downstream one, increasing the wind speed leads to a monotonic decrease of the infection peak in the downstream hotspot. Once the upstream hotspot becomes about between twice and five times more infectious than the downstream one, an optimal wind speed emerges, whereby a local minimum peak intensity is attained in the downstream hotspot, along with a local maximum beyond which the beneficial effect of the wind is restored. Since this non-monotonic trend is reminiscent of the equation of state of non-ideal f luids, we dub the above phenomena epidemic condensation. When the relative infectivity of the upstream hotspot exceeds about a factor five, the beneficial effect of the wind above the optimal speed is completely lost: any wind speed above the optimal one leads to a higher infection peak. It is also found that spatial correlation between the two hotspots decay much more slowly than their inverse distance. It is hoped that the above findings may offer a qualitative clue for optimal confinement policies between different cities and urban agglomerates.
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