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arXiv 2103.00485cs.SIphysics.soc-ph
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COVID-19疫苗接种策略的动态社交网络实时的更新

Real-time Updating of Dynamic Social Networks for COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies

Sibo Cheng, Christopher C. Pain, Yi-Ke Guo, Rossella Arcucci

摘要:

疫苗接种策略对抗击COVID-19疫情至关重要。由于供应有限,基于接触网络的干预措施可以通过识别高风险个人或社区来制定最佳战略。然而,由于高维,只有部分和噪声的网络信息可以在实践中,特别是对于动力系统的接触网络是高度时变的。此外,SARS-CoV-2的大量突变对当前的感染概率有相当大的影响,需要实时的【形】网络更新算法。在这项研究中,我们提出了一个连续的网络更新方法,数据同化技术的基础上,结合不同来源的时间信息。然后,我们优先考虑从同化网络中获得的具有高度或高中心性的个体进行疫苗接种。同化为基础的方法进行了比较,与标准的方法(基于部分观察到的网络)和随机选择策略在SIR模型中的疫苗接种效果。数值比较首先进行使用真实世界的面对面的动态网络收集在一所高中,其次是顺序的多层网络,产生依赖于Barabasi-Albert模型模拟计算在英国帝国理工学院在英国的部门作为一个例子。

英文摘要:

Vaccination strategy is crucial in fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the supply is limited, contact network-based interventions can be most powerful to set an optimal strategy by identifying high-risk individuals or communities. However, due to the high dimension, only partial and noisy network information can be available in practice, especially for dynamical systems where the contact networks are highly time-variant. Furthermore, numerous mutations of SARS-CoV-2 impact considerably the current infectious probability, requiring real-time network updating algorithms. In this study, we propose a sequential network updating approach based on data assimilation techniques to combine different sources of temporal information. We then prioritise the individuals with high-degree or high-centrality, obtained from the assimilated networks, for vaccination. The assimilation-based approach is compared with the standard method (based on partially observed networks) and a random selection strategy in terms of vaccination effectiveness in a SIR model. The numerical comparison is first carried out using real-world face-to-face dynamical networks collected in a high school, following by sequential multi-layer networks, generated relying on the Barabasi-Albert model emulating the department of Computing at Imperial College London in the UK as an example.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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