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arXiv 2102.05856cs.LG
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预测医院的临床恶化

Predicting Clinical Deterioration in Hospitals

Hitachi America, Ltd.(日立美国有限公司);RGI Informatics, LLC.(RGI信息学有限责任公司);Fuenlabrada University Hospital(富恩拉夫拉达大学医院)

Laleh Jalali, Hsiu-Khuern Tang, Richard H. Goldstein, Joaqun Alvarez Rodrguez

摘要:

对表现出即将出现临床恶化迹象的患者迅速做出反应是患者护理的基本原则。这就产生了一种被称为快速反应系统(RRS)的患者安全干预理念,通过该理念,满足一组预先确定的即将发生临床恶化的标准的患者将被立即评估和治疗,目的是减轻恶化并防止转入重症监护室(ICU)、心脏骤停或死亡。虽然RRS已被广泛采用,但多项系统评价未能找到其有效性的证据。通常,RRS标准是简单的、专家(共识)定义的规则,用于识别显著的生理异常或基于临床观察。如果能在患者的数据中发现一种模式,早于当前标准中所显示的生理紊乱的发作,则干预策略可能更有效。在本文中,我们将机器学习应用于电子病历(EMR),以推断患者是否有临床恶化的风险。我们的模型更敏感,并提供更大的提前预测时间相比,现有的基于规则的方法,目前在医院使用。我们的结果值得在现场进行进一步测试;如果成功,医院可以将我们的方法集成到现有的IT系统中,并使用模型生成的警报来防止ICU转移,心脏骤停或死亡,或减少ICU住院时间。

英文摘要:

Responding rapidly to a patient who is demonstrating signs of imminent clinical deterioration is a basic tenet of patient care. This gave rise to a patient safety intervention philosophy known as a Rapid Response System (RRS), whereby a patient who meets a pre-determined set of criteria for imminent clinical deterioration is immediately assessed and treated, with the goal of mitigating the deterioration and preventing intensive care unit (ICU) transfer, cardiac arrest, or death. While RRSs have been widely adopted, multiple systematic reviews have failed to find evidence of their effectiveness. Typically, RRS criteria are simple, expert (consensus) defined rules that identify significant physiologic abnormalities or are based on clinical observation. If one can find a pattern in the patient's data earlier than the onset of the physiologic derangement manifest in the current criteria, intervention strategies might be more effective. In this paper, we apply machine learning to electronic medical records (EMR) to infer if patients are at risk for clinical deterioration. Our models are more sensitive and offer greater advance prediction time compared with existing rule-based methods that are currently utilized in hospitals. Our results warrant further testing in the field; if successful, hospitals can integrate our approach into their existing IT systems and use the alerts generated by the model to prevent ICU transfer, cardiac arrest, or death, or to reduce the ICU length of stay.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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