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arXiv 2101.03041math.PR
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两个布朗运动之差的控制及其在能源市场建模中的应用

On the control of the difference between two Brownian motions: an application to energy markets modeling

Thomas Deschatre

摘要:

基于布朗运动与其在障碍物上的反射之间的依赖结构,我们导出了一个模型。相关结构呈现两种相关状态:正相关的同单调性和负相关的反单调性。当$x$接近0时,两个布朗运动$B^1$和$B^2$之间的依赖性模型允许$\mathbb{P}\left(B^1_t - B^2_t \geq x\right)$的值高于$\frac{1}{2}$,而当依赖性由常数相关性建模时,情况并非如此。它可用于商品能源市场的风险管理和期权定价。特别是,它允许捕捉电力价格和其可燃物价格之间的差异的分布的不对称性。

英文摘要:

We derive a model based on the structure of dependence between a Brownian motion and its reflection according to a barrier. The structure of dependence presents two states of correlation: one of comonotonicity with a positive correlation and one of countermonotonicity with a negative correlation. This model of dependence between two Brownian motions $B^1$ and $B^2$ allows for the value of $\mathbb{P}\left(B^1_t - B^2_t \geq x\right)$ to be higher than $\frac{1}{2}$ when $x$ is close to 0, which is not the case when the dependence is modeled by a constant correlation. It can be used for risk management and option pricing in commodity energy markets. In particular, it allows to capture the asymmetry in the distribution of the difference between electricity prices and its combustible prices.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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