Effect modification occurs when the effect of the treatment on an outcome differs according to the level of a third variable (the effect modifier, EM). A natural way to assess effect modification is by subgroup analysis or include the interaction terms between the treatment and the covariates in an outcome regression. The latter, however, does not target a parameter of a marginal structural model (MSM) unless a correctly specified outcome model is specified. Our aim is to develop a data-adaptive method to select effect modifying variables in an MSM with a single time point exposure. A two-stage procedure is proposed. First, we estimate the conditional outcome expectation and propensity score and plug these into a doubly robust loss function. Second, we use the adaptive LASSO to select the EMs and estimate MSM coefficients. Post-selection inference is then used to obtain coverage on the selected EMs. Simulations studies are performed in order to verify the performance of the proposed methods.
We propose a generalization of the lasso that allows the model coefficients to vary as a function of a general set of modifying variables. These modifiers might be variables such as gender, age or time. The paradigm is quite general, with each lasso coefficient modified by a sparse linear function of the modifying variables $Z$. The model is estimated in a hierarchical fashion to control the degrees of freedom and avoid overfitting. The modifying variables may be observed, observed only in the training set, or unobserved overall. There are connections of our proposal to varying coefficient mod…
Inferring causal relationships or related associations from observational data can be invalidated by the existence of hidden confounding. We focus on a high-dimensional linear regression setting, where the measured covariates are affected by hidden confounding and propose the {\em Doubly Debiased Lasso} estimator for individual components of the regression coefficient vector. Our advocated method simultaneously corrects both the bias due to estimation of high-dimensional parameters as well as the bias caused by the hidden confounding. We establish its asymptotic normality and also prove that i…
Contextual multi-armed bandit algorithms are widely used in sequential decision tasks such as news article recommendation systems, web page ad placement algorithms, and mobile health. Most of the existing algorithms have regret proportional to a polynomial function of the context dimension, $d$. In many applications however, it is often the case that contexts are high-dimensional with only a sparse subset of size $s_0 (\ll d)$ being correlated with the reward. We consider the stochastic linear contextual bandit problem and propose a novel algorithm, namely the Doubly-Robust Lasso Bandit algori…
We introduce a pliable lasso method for estimation of interaction effects in the Cox proportional hazards model framework. The pliable lasso is a linear model that includes interactions between covariates X and a set of modifying variables Z and assumes sparsity of the main effects and interaction effects. The hierarchical penalty excludes interaction effects when the corresponding main effects are zero: this avoids overfitting and an explosion of model complexity. We extend this method to the Cox model for survival data, incorporating modifiers that are either fixed or varying in time into th…
Doubly truncated data arise in many areas such as astronomy, econometrics, and medical studies. For the regression analysis with doubly truncated response variables, the existence of double truncation may bring bias for estimation as well as affect variable selection. We propose a simultaneous estimation and variable selection procedure for the doubly truncated regression, allowing a diverging number of regression parameters. To remove the bias introduced by the double truncation, a Mann-Whitney-type loss function is used. The adaptive LASSO penalty is then added into the loss function to achi…
Administrative data, or non-probability sample data, are increasingly being used to obtain official statistics due to their many benefits over survey methods. In particular, they are less costly, provide a larger sample size, and are not reliant on the response rate. However, it is difficult to obtain an unbiased estimate of the population mean from such data due to the absence of design weights. Several estimation approaches have been proposed recently using an auxiliary probability sample which provides representative covariate information of the target population. However, when this covaria…
In many applied fields, such as genomics, different types of data are collected on the same system, and it is not uncommon that some of these datasets are subject to censoring as a result of the measurement technologies used, such as data generated by polymerase chain reactions and flow cytometer. When the overall objective is that of network inference, at possibly different levels of a system, information coming from different sources and/or different steps of the analysis can be integrated into one model with the use of conditional graphical models. In this paper, we develop a doubly penaliz…
Model-X approaches to testing conditional independence between a predictor and an outcome variable given a vector of covariates usually assume exact knowledge of the conditional distribution of the predictor given the covariates. Nevertheless, model-X methodologies are often deployed with this conditional distribution learned in sample. We investigate the consequences of this choice through the lens of the distilled conditional randomization test (dCRT). We find that Type-I error control is still possible, but only if the mean of the outcome variable given the covariates is estimated well enou…
This commentary regards a recent simulation study conducted by Aouni, Gaudel-Dedieu and Sebastien, evaluating the performance of different versions of matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) in an anchored scenario with a common comparator. The simulation study uses survival outcomes and the Cox proportional hazards regression as the outcome model. It concludes that using the LASSO for variable selection is preferable to balancing a maximal set of covariates. However, there are no treatment effect modifiers in imbalance in the study. The LASSO is more efficient because it selects a subset…
A comparative study of augmented inverse propensity weighted estimators using outcome-oriented covariate selection via penalization with outcome-adaptive lasso
Inverse probability weighted estimators are the oldest and potentially most commonly used class of procedures for the estimation of causal effects. By adjusting for selection biases via a weighting mechanism, these procedures estimate an effect of interest by constructing a pseudo-population in which selection biases are eliminated. Despite their ease of use, these estimators require the correct specification of a model for the weighting mechanism, are known to be inefficient, and suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We propose a class of nonparametric inverse probability weighted estimato…
It is of particular interests in many application fields to draw doubly robust inference of a logistic partially linear model with the predictor specified as combination of a targeted low dimensional linear parametric function and a nuisance nonparametric function. In recent, Tan (2019) proposed a simple and flexible doubly robust estimator for this purpose. They introduced the two nuisance models, i.e. nonparametric component in the logistic model and conditional mean of the exposure covariates given the other covariates and fixed response, and specified them as fixed dimensional parametric m…
Consider semiparametric estimation where a doubly robust estimating function for a low-dimensional parameter is available, depending on two working models. With high-dimensional data, we develop regularized calibrated estimation as a general method for estimating the parameters in the two working models, such that valid Wald confidence intervals can be obtained for the parameter of interest under suitable sparsity conditions if either of the two working models is correctly specified. We propose a computationally tractable two-step algorithm and provide rigorous theoretical analysis which justi…
Which Regularized Propensity-Score and Doubly Robust Methods Are Best Calibrated When Exposures or Outcomes Are Rare? A Plasmode Study of Proxy-Based Confounding Adjustment
School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia（英属哥伦比亚大学公共卫生与人口健康学院）
Consider sensitivity analysis for estimating average treatment effects under unmeasured confounding, assumed to satisfy a marginal sensitivity model. At the population level, we provide new representations for the sharp population bounds and doubly robust estimating functions, recently derived by Dorn, Guo, and Kallus. We also derive new, relaxed population bounds, depending on weighted linear outcome quantile regression. At the sample level, we develop new methods and theory for obtaining not only doubly robust point estimators for the relaxed population bounds with respect to misspecificatio…
We show how entropy balancing can be used for transporting experimental treatment effects from a trial population onto a target population. This method is doubly-robust in the sense that if either the outcome model or the probability of trial participation is correctly specified, then the estimate of the target population average treatment effect is consistent. Furthermore, we only require the sample moments of the effect modifiers drawn from the target population to consistently estimate the target population average treatment effect. We compared the finite-sample performance of entropy balan…
When treatment effect modifiers influence the decision to participate in a randomized trial, the average treatment effect in the population represented by the randomized individuals will differ from the effect in other populations. In this tutorial, we consider methods for extending causal inferences about time-fixed treatments from a trial to a new target population of non-participants, using data from a completed randomized trial and baseline covariate data from a sample from the target population. We examine methods based on modeling the expectation of the outcome, the probability of partic…
We investigate the finite sample performance of sample splitting, cross-fitting and averaging for the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect. Recently proposed methods, so-called meta-learners, make use of machine learning to estimate different nuisance functions and hence allow for fewer restrictions on the underlying structure of the data. To limit a potential overfitting bias that may result when using machine learning methods, cross-fitting estimators have been proposed. This includes the splitting of the data in different folds to reduce bias and averaging over folds to re…
In many applications, heterogeneous treatment effects on a censored response variable are of primary interest, and it is natural to evaluate the effects at different quantiles (e.g., median). The large number of potential effect modifiers, the unknown structure of the treatment effects, and the presence of right censoring pose significant challenges. In this paper, we develop a hybrid forest approach called Hybrid Censored Quantile Regression Forest (HCQRF) to assess the heterogeneous effects varying with high-dimensional variables. The hybrid estimation approach takes advantage of the random …
We consider estimating average treatment effects (ATE) of a binary treatment in observational data when data-driven variable selection is needed to select relevant covariates from a moderately large number of available covariates $\mathbf{X}$. To leverage covariates among $\mathbf{X}$ predictive of the outcome for efficiency gain while using regularization to fit a parametric propensity score (PS) model, we consider a dimension reduction of $\mathbf{X}$ based on fitting both working PS and outcome models using adaptive LASSO. A novel PS estimator, the Double-index Propensity Score (DiPS), is p…
Consider the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect with an instrument variable, where the instrument unconfoundedness holds after adjusting for a set of measured covariates. Several unknown functions of the covariates need to be estimated through regression models, such as instrument propensity score and treatment and outcome regression models. We develop a computationally tractable method in high-dimensional settings where the numbers of regression terms are close to or larger than the sample size. Our method exploits regularized calibrated estimation, which involves Lasso …
This paper concerns robust inference on average treatment effects following model selection. In the selection on observables framework, we show how to construct confidence intervals based on a doubly-robust estimator that are robust to model selection errors and prove that they are valid uniformly over a large class of treatment effect models. The class allows for multivalued treatments with heterogeneous effects (in observables), general heteroskedasticity, and selection amongst (possibly) more covariates than observations. Our estimator attains the semiparametric efficiency bound under appro…
