Administrative data, or non-probability sample data, are increasingly being used to obtain official statistics due to their many benefits over survey methods. In particular, they are less costly, provide a larger sample size, and are not reliant on the response rate. However, it is difficult to obtain an unbiased estimate of the population mean from such data due to the absence of design weights. Several estimation approaches have been proposed recently using an auxiliary probability sample which provides representative covariate information of the target population. However, when this covariate information is high-dimensional, variable selection is not a straight-forward task even for a subject matter expert. In the context of efficient and doubly robust estimation approaches for estimating a population mean, we develop two data adaptive methods for variable selection using the outcome adaptive LASSO and a collaborative propensity score, respectively. Simulation studies are performed in order to verify the performance of the proposed methods versus competing methods. Finally, we presented an anayisis of the impact of Covid-19 on Canadians.
A comparative study of augmented inverse propensity weighted estimators using outcome-oriented covariate selection via penalization with outcome-adaptive lasso
Effect modification occurs when the effect of the treatment on an outcome differs according to the level of a third variable (the effect modifier, EM). A natural way to assess effect modification is by subgroup analysis or include the interaction terms between the treatment and the covariates in an outcome regression. The latter, however, does not target a parameter of a marginal structural model (MSM) unless a correctly specified outcome model is specified. Our aim is to develop a data-adaptive method to select effect modifying variables in an MSM with a single time point exposure. A two-stag…
Mixed-effects Outcome-Adaptive Lasso for Propensity Score Estimation under Partial Interference
Joint Graduate School of Mathematics for Innovation, Kyushu University（九州大学数学创新联合研究生院）；Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo（东京统计数学研究所）；Faculty of Mathematics, Kyushu University（九州大学数学学院）
Imaging Genetics Center, USC Stevens Neuroimaging and Informatics Institute, Keck School of Medicine of the University of Southern California（南加州大学凯克医学院USC Stevens神经影像与信息学研究所影像遗传学中心）；BCN NeuroImaging Center and Department of Neuroscience of the University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen（格罗宁根大学医学中心格罗宁根大学BCN神经影像中心与神经科学系）；University of Cape Town（开普敦大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；City, University of London（伦敦城市大学）；Imperial College London（伦敦帝国理工学院）；Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin（柏林夏里特医学院）；Trinity College Dublin（都柏林圣三一学院）；Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg（马格德堡奥托·冯·格里克大学）；VU University Medical Center（阿姆斯特丹自由大学医学中心）；Orygen, The National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health（Orygen国家青少年心理健康卓越中心）；The University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学）
Large-scale collaborative analysis of brain imaging data, in psychiatry and neu-rology, offers a new source of statistical power to discover features that boost ac-curacy in disease classification, differential diagnosis, and outcome prediction. However, due to data privacy regulations or limited accessibility to large datasets across the world, it is challenging to efficiently integrate distributed information. Here we propose a novel classification framework through multi-site weighted LASSO: each site performs an iterative weighted LASSO for feature selection separately. Within each iterati…
In this paper, we propose a propensity score adapted variable selection procedure to select covariates for inclusion in propensity score models, in order to eliminate confounding bias and improve statistical efficiency in observational studies. Our variable selection approach is specially designed for causal inference, it only requires the propensity scores to be $\sqrt{n}$-consistently estimated through a parametric model and need not correct specification of potential outcome models. By using estimated propensity scores as inverse probability treatment weights in performing an adaptive lasso…
Propensity score (PS) based estimators are increasingly used for causal inference in observational studies. However, model selection for PS estimation in high-dimensional data has received little attention. In these settings, PS models have traditionally been selected based on the goodness-of-fit for the treatment mechanism itself, without consideration of the causal parameter of interest. Collaborative minimum loss-based estimation (C-TMLE) is a novel methodology for causal inference that takes into account information on the causal parameter of interest when selecting a PS model. This "colla…
1 School of Computing, Informatics；2 Imaging Genetics Center, Institute for Neuroimaging
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have achieved great success in the genetic study of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Collaborative imaging genetics studies across different research institutions show the effectiveness of detecting genetic risk factors. However, the high dimensionality of GWAS data poses significant challenges in detecting risk SNPs for AD. Selecting relevant features is crucial in predicting the response variable. In this study, we propose a novel Distributed Feature Selection Framework (DFSF) to conduct the large-scale imaging genetics studies across multiple institutions. To…
Many estimators of the average effect of a treatment on an outcome require estimation of the propensity score, the outcome regression, or both. It is often beneficial to utilize flexible techniques such as semiparametric regression or machine learning to estimate these quantities. However, optimal estimation of these regressions does not necessarily lead to optimal estimation of the average treatment effect, particularly in settings with strong instrumental variables. A recent proposal addressed these issues via the outcome-adaptive lasso, a penalized regression technique for estimating the pr…
Selective inference (post-selection inference) is a methodology that has attracted much attention in recent years in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Naive inference based on data that are also used for model selection tends to show an overestimation, and so the selective inference conditions the event that the model was selected. In this paper, we develop selective inference in propensity score analysis with a semiparametric approach, which has become a standard tool in causal inference. Specifically, for the most basic causal inference model in which the causal effect can be wr…
Propensity score methods are widely used for estimating treatment effects from observational studies. A popular approach is to estimate propensity scores by maximum likelihood based on logistic regression, and then apply inverse probability weighted estimators or extensions to estimate treatment effects. However, a challenging issue is that such inverse probability weighting methods including doubly robust methods can perform poorly even when the logistic model appears adequate as examined by conventional techniques. In addition, there is increasing difficulty to appropriately estimate propens…
Symantec Research Labs（赛门铁克研究实验室）；University of Wisconsin-Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校）
In this work, we define a collaborative and privacy-preserving machine teaching paradigm with multiple distributed teachers. We focus on consensus super teaching. It aims at organizing distributed teachers to jointly select a compact while informative training subset from data hosted by the teachers to make a learner learn better. The challenges arise from three perspectives. First, the state-of-the-art pool-based super teaching method applies mixed-integer non-linear programming (MINLP) which does not scale well to very large data sets. Second, it is desirable to restrict data access of the t…
A common goal in comparative effectiveness research is to estimate treatment effects on pre-specified subpopulations of patients. Though widely used in medical research, causal inference methods for such subgroup analysis remain underdeveloped, particularly in observational studies. In this article, we develop a suite of analytical methods and visualization tools for causal subgroup analysis. First, we introduce the estimand of subgroup weighted average treatment effect and provide the corresponding propensity score weighting estimator. We show that balancing covariates within a subgroup bound…
Which Regularized Propensity-Score and Doubly Robust Methods Are Best Calibrated When Exposures or Outcomes Are Rare? A Plasmode Study of Proxy-Based Confounding Adjustment
School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia（英属哥伦比亚大学公共卫生与人口健康学院）
We consider estimating average treatment effects (ATE) of a binary treatment in observational data when data-driven variable selection is needed to select relevant covariates from a moderately large number of available covariates $\mathbf{X}$. To leverage covariates among $\mathbf{X}$ predictive of the outcome for efficiency gain while using regularization to fit a parametric propensity score (PS) model, we consider a dimension reduction of $\mathbf{X}$ based on fitting both working PS and outcome models using adaptive LASSO. A novel PS estimator, the Double-index Propensity Score (DiPS), is p…
For propensity score analysis and sparse estimation, we develop an information criterion for determining the regularization parameters needed in variable selection. First, for Gaussian distribution-based causal inference models, we extend Stein's unbiased risk estimation theory, which leads to a generalized Cp criterion that has almost no weakness in conventional sparse estimation, and derive an inverse-probability-weighted sparse estimation version of the criterion without resorting to asymptotics. Next, for general causal inference models that are not necessarily Gaussian distribution-based,…
Consider sensitivity analysis for estimating average treatment effects under unmeasured confounding, assumed to satisfy a marginal sensitivity model. At the population level, we provide new representations for the sharp population bounds and doubly robust estimating functions, recently derived by Dorn, Guo, and Kallus. We also derive new, relaxed population bounds, depending on weighted linear outcome quantile regression. At the sample level, we develop new methods and theory for obtaining not only doubly robust point estimators for the relaxed population bounds with respect to misspecificatio…
Estimation of causal parameters from observational data requires complete confounder adjustment, as well as positivity of the propensity score for each treatment arm. There is often a trade-off between these two assumptions: confounding bias may be reduced through adjustment for a large number of pre-treatment covariates, but positivity is less likely in analyses with irrelevant predictors of treatment such as instrumental variables. Under empirical positivity violations, propensity score weights are highly variable, and doubly robust estimators suffer from high variance and large finite sampl…
The positivity assumption, or the experimental treatment assignment (ETA) assumption, is important for identifiability in causal inference. Even if the positivity assumption holds, practical violations of this assumption may jeopardize the finite sample performance of the causal estimator. One of the consequences of practical violations of the positivity assumption is extreme values in the estimated propensity score (PS). A common practice to address this issue is truncating the PS estimate when constructing PS-based estimators. In this study, we propose a novel adaptive truncation method, Pos…
Data sharing barriers are paramount challenges arising from multicenter clinical trials where multiple data sources are stored in a distributed fashion at different local study sites. Merging such data sources into a common data storage for a centralized statistical analysis requires a data use agreement, which is often time-consuming. Data merging may become more burdensome when causal inference is of primary interest because propensity score modeling involves combining many confounding variables, and systematic incorporation of this additional modeling in meta-analysis has not been thoroughl…
We wish to infer the value of a parameter at a law from which we sample independent observations. The parameter is smooth and we can define two variation-independent features of the law, its $Q$- and $G$-components, such that estimating them consistently at a fast enough product of rates allows to build a confidence interval (CI) with a given asymptotic level from a plain targeted minimum loss estimator (TMLE). Say that the above product is not fast enough and the algorithm for the $G$-component is fine-tuned by a real-valued $h$. A plain TMLE with an $h$ chosen by cross-validation would typic…
