Capturing uncertainty in object detection is indispensable for safe autonomous driving. In recent years, deep learning has become the de-facto approach for object detection, and many probabilistic object detectors have been proposed. However, there is no summary on uncertainty estimation in deep object detection, and existing methods are not only built with different network architectures and uncertainty estimation methods, but also evaluated on different datasets with a wide range of evaluation metrics. As a result, a comparison among methods remains challenging, as does the selection of a model that best suits a particular application. This paper aims to alleviate this problem by providing a review and comparative study on existing probabilistic object detection methods for autonomous driving applications. First, we provide an overview of generic uncertainty estimation in deep learning, and then systematically survey existing methods and evaluation metrics for probabilistic object detection. Next, we present a strict comparative study for probabilistic object detection based on an image detector and three public autonomous driving datasets. Finally, we present a discussion of the remaining challenges and future works. Code has been made available at https://github.com/asharakeh/pod_compare.git
Robert Bosch GmbH（罗伯特·博世股份有限公司）；Ulm University（乌尔姆大学）
Reliable uncertainty estimation is crucial for perception systems in safe autonomous driving. Recently, many methods have been proposed to model uncertainties in deep learning based object detectors. However, the estimated probabilities are often uncalibrated, which may lead to severe problems in safety critical scenarios. In this work, we identify such uncertainty miscalibration problems in a probabilistic LiDAR 3D object detection network, and propose three practical methods to significantly reduce errors in uncertainty calibration. Extensive experiments on several datasets show that our met…
3D multi-object tracking is a key module in autonomous driving applications that provides a reliable dynamic representation of the world to the planning module. In this paper, we present our on-line tracking method, which made the first place in the NuScenes Tracking Challenge, held at the AI Driving Olympics Workshop at NeurIPS 2019. Our method estimates the object states by adopting a Kalman Filter. We initialize the state covariance as well as the process and observation noise covariance with statistics from the training set. We also use the stochastic information from the Kalman Filter in …
Autonomous driving vehicles have been of keen interest ever since automation of various tasks started. Humans are prone to exhaustion and have a slow response time on the road, and on top of that driving is already quite a dangerous task with around 1.35 million road traffic incident deaths each year. It is expected that autonomous driving can reduce the number of driving accidents around the world which is why this problem has been of keen interest for researchers. Currently, self-driving vehicles use different algorithms for various sub-problems in making the vehicle autonomous. We will focu…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Toyota Research Institute（丰田研究院）
Multi-object tracking is an important ability for an autonomous vehicle to safely navigate a traffic scene. Current state-of-the-art follows the tracking-by-detection paradigm where existing tracks are associated with detected objects through some distance metric. The key challenges to increase tracking accuracy lie in data association and track life cycle management. We propose a probabilistic, multi-modal, multi-object tracking system consisting of different trainable modules to provide robust and data-driven tracking results. First, we learn how to fuse features from 2D images and 3D LiDAR …
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；KTH Royal Institute of Technology（瑞典皇家理工学院）；Honda Research Institute（本田研究院）
Designing reliable decision strategies for autonomous urban driving is challenging. Reinforcement learning (RL) has been used to automatically derive suitable behavior in uncertain environments, but it does not provide any guarantee on the performance of the resulting policy. We propose a generic approach to enforce probabilistic guarantees on an RL agent. An exploration strategy is derived prior to training that constrains the agent to choose among actions that satisfy a desired probabilistic specification expressed with linear temporal logic (LTL). Reducing the search space to policies satis…
In this paper, we present LaserNet, a computationally efficient method for 3D object detection from LiDAR data for autonomous driving. The efficiency results from processing LiDAR data in the native range view of the sensor, where the input data is naturally compact. Operating in the range view involves well known challenges for learning, including occlusion and scale variation, but it also provides contextual information based on how the sensor data was captured. Our approach uses a fully convolutional network to predict a multimodal distribution over 3D boxes for each point and then it effic…
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are on the road. To safely and efficiently interact with other road participants, AVs have to accurately predict the behavior of surrounding vehicles and plan accordingly. Such prediction should be probabilistic, to address the uncertainties in human behavior. Such prediction should also be interactive, since the distribution over all possible trajectories of the predicted vehicle depends not only on historical information, but also on future plans of other vehicles that interact with it. To achieve such interaction-aware predictions, we propose a probabilistic predic…
To navigate safely in urban environments, an autonomous vehicle (ego vehicle) must understand and anticipate its surroundings, in particular the behavior and intents of other road users (neighbors). Most of the times, multiple decision choices are acceptable for all road users (e.g., turn right or left, or different ways of avoiding an obstacle), leading to a highly uncertain and multi-modal decision space. We focus here on predicting multiple feasible future trajectories for both ego vehicle and neighbors through a probabilistic framework. We rely on a conditional imitation learning algorithm…
Contextual Robotics Institute, University of California, San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校情境机器人研究所）
Recent advancements in statistical learning and computational abilities have enabled autonomous vehicle technology to develop at a much faster rate. While many of the architectures previously introduced are capable of operating under highly dynamic environments, many of these are constrained to smaller-scale deployments, require constant maintenance due to the associated scalability cost with high-definition (HD) maps, and involve tedious manual labeling. As an attempt to tackle this problem, we propose to fuse image and pre-built point cloud map information to perform automatic and accurate l…
Autonomous vehicles should be able to generate accurate probabilistic predictions for uncertain behavior of other road users. Moreover, reactive predictions are necessary in highly interactive driving scenarios to answer "what if I take this action in the future" for autonomous vehicles. There is no existing unified framework to homogenize the problem formulation, representation simplification, and evaluation metric for various prediction methods, such as probabilistic graphical models (PGM), neural networks (NN) and inverse reinforcement learning (IRL). In this paper, we formulate a probabili…
This paper investigates runtime monitoring of perception systems. Perception is a critical component of high-integrity applications of robotics and autonomous systems, such as self-driving cars. In these applications, failure of perception systems may put human life at risk, and a broad adoption of these technologies requires the development of methodologies to guarantee and monitor safe operation. Despite the paramount importance of perception, currently there is no formal approach for system-level perception monitoring. In this paper, we formalize the problem of runtime fault detection and i…
Mercedes-Benz AG（梅赛德斯-奔驰股份公司）；Ulm University（乌尔姆大学）；University of Siegen（锡根大学）
By observing their environment as well as other traffic participants, humans are enabled to drive road vehicles safely. Vehicle passengers, however, perceive a notable difference between non-experienced and experienced drivers. In particular, they may get the impression that the latter ones anticipate what will happen in the next few moments and consider these foresights in their driving behavior. To make the driving style of automated vehicles comparable to the one of human drivers with respect to comfort and perceived safety, the aforementioned anticipation skills need to become a built-in f…
The task of predicting stochastic behaviors of road agents in diverse environments is a challenging problem for autonomous driving. To best understand scene contexts and produce diverse possible future states of the road agents adaptively in different environments, a prediction model should be probabilistic, multi-modal, context-driven, and general. We present Conditionalizing Variational AutoEncoders via Hypernetworks (CVAE-H); a conditional VAE that extensively leverages hypernetwork and performs generative tasks for high-dimensional problems like the prediction task. We first evaluate CVAE-…
Autonomous Systems Lab (ASL), ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院自主系统实验室）；Toyota Research Institute (TRI)（丰田研究所）
Safe autonomous driving requires robust detection of other traffic participants. However, robust does not mean perfect, and safe systems typically minimize missed detections at the expense of a higher false positive rate. This results in conservative and yet potentially dangerous behavior such as avoiding imaginary obstacles. In the context of behavioral cloning, perceptual errors at training time can lead to learning difficulties or wrong policies, as expert demonstrations might be inconsistent with the perceived world state. In this work, we propose a behavioral cloning approach that can saf…
The goal of our work is to use visual attention to enhance autonomous driving performance. We present two methods of predicting visual attention maps. The first method is a supervised learning approach in which we collect eye-gaze data for the task of driving and use this to train a model for predicting the attention map. The second method is a novel unsupervised approach where we train a model to learn to predict attention as it learns to drive a car. Finally, we present a comparative study of our results and show that the supervised approach for predicting attention when incorporated perform…
Accurately tracking and predicting behaviors of surrounding objects are key prerequisites for intelligent systems such as autonomous vehicles to achieve safe and high-quality decision making and motion planning. However, there still remain challenges for multi-target tracking due to object number fluctuation and occlusion. To overcome these challenges, we propose a constrained mixture sequential Monte Carlo (CMSMC) method in which a mixture representation is incorporated in the estimated posterior distribution to maintain multi-modality. Multiple targets can be tracked simultaneously within a …
Autonomous vehicles face tremendous challenges while interacting with human drivers in different kinds of scenarios. Developing control methods with safety guarantees while performing interactions with uncertainty is an ongoing research goal. In this paper, we present a real-time safe control framework using bi-level optimization with Control Barrier Function (CBF) that enables an autonomous ego vehicle to interact with human-driven cars in ramp merging scenarios with a consistent safety guarantee. In order to explicitly address motion uncertainty, we propose a novel extension of control barri…
Robert Bosch GmbH（罗伯特·博世有限公司）；Ulm University（乌尔姆大学）；Karlsruher Institute of Technology（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院）
This work presents a probabilistic deep neural network that combines LiDAR point clouds and RGB camera images for robust, accurate 3D object detection. We explicitly model uncertainties in the classification and regression tasks, and leverage uncertainties to train the fusion network via a sampling mechanism. We validate our method on three datasets with challenging real-world driving scenarios. Experimental results show that the predicted uncertainties reflect complex environmental uncertainty like difficulties of a human expert to label objects. The results also show that our method consiste…
Dynamic Risk Assessment for Autonomous Vehicles from Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Occupancy Heatmaps
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA（加州大学伯克利分校土木与环境工程系）；D3 Analytics Innovation, Allstate Insurance Company, Northbrook, IL, USA（Allstate保险公司D3 Analytics创新部门）；Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA（加州大学伯克利分校电气工程与计算机科学系）
Federal Institute of Espirito Santo（圣埃斯皮里图联邦学院）；Institute of Systems and Robotics (ISR-UC)（系统与机器人研究所（科英布拉大学））；University of Coimbra（科英布拉大学）；Nottingham Trent University（诺丁汉特伦特大学）；University of Hertfordshire（赫特福德大学）；Portuguese Mint and Official Printing Office（葡萄牙铸币与官方印刷局）
In state-of-the-art deep learning for object recognition, SoftMax and Sigmoid functions are most commonly employed as the predictor outputs. Such layers often produce overconfident predictions rather than proper probabilistic scores, which can thus harm the decision-making of `critical' perception systems applied in autonomous driving and robotics. Given this, the experiments in this work propose a probabilistic approach based on distributions calculated out of the Logit layer scores of pre-trained networks. We demonstrate that Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Maximum a-Posteriori (MAP) functions a…
How many scenarios are sufficient to validate the safe Operational Design Domain (ODD) of an Automated Driving System (ADS) equipped vehicle? Is a more significant number of sampled scenarios guaranteeing a more accurate safety assessment of the ADS? Despite the various empirical success of ADS safety evaluation with scenario sampling in practice, some of the fundamental properties are largely unknown. This paper seeks to remedy this gap by formulating and tackling the scenario sampling safety assurance problem from a set invariance perspective. First, a novel conceptual equivalence is drawn b…
Highway driving places significant demands on human drivers and autonomous vehicles (AVs) alike due to high speeds and the complex interactions in dense traffic. Merging onto the highway poses additional challenges by limiting the amount of time available for decision-making. Predicting others' trajectories accurately and quickly is crucial to safely executing maneuvers. Many existing prediction methods based on neural networks have focused on modeling interactions to achieve better accuracy while assuming the existence of observation windows over 3s long. This paper proposes a novel probabili…
University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；University of California, San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；University of California, Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校）
In this paper, we propose the Deep Structured self-Driving Network (DSDNet), which performs object detection, motion prediction, and motion planning with a single neural network. Towards this goal, we develop a deep structured energy based model which considers the interactions between actors and produces socially consistent multimodal future predictions. Furthermore, DSDNet explicitly exploits the predicted future distributions of actors to plan a safe maneuver by using a structured planning cost. Our sample-based formulation allows us to overcome the difficulty in probabilistic inference of …
Collaborative Perception Datasets for Autonomous Driving: A Review
School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)（中国矿业大学（北京）机械与电子工程学院）；State Key Laboratory of Robotics and System, Harbin Institute of Technology（哈尔滨工业大学机器人系统国家重点实验室）；State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Green Vehicle and Mobility, Tsinghua University（清华大学智能绿色车辆与移动系统国家重点实验室）；School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学机械与航空航天工程学院）；School of Mechatronics Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology（哈尔滨工业大学机械电子工程学院）；Department of Electronic & Electrical Engineering, University of Bath（巴斯大学电子与电气工程系）
In this work, we present LaserFlow, an efficient method for 3D object detection and motion forecasting from LiDAR. Unlike the previous work, our approach utilizes the native range view representation of the LiDAR, which enables our method to operate at the full range of the sensor in real-time without voxelization or compression of the data. We propose a new multi-sweep fusion architecture, which extracts and merges temporal features directly from the range images. Furthermore, we propose a novel technique for learning a probability distribution over future trajectories inspired by curriculum …
When autonomous robots interact with humans, such as during autonomous driving, explicit safety guarantees are crucial in order to avoid potentially life-threatening accidents. Many data-driven methods have explored learning probabilistic bounds over human agents' trajectories (i.e. confidence tubes that contain trajectories with probability $δ$), which can then be used to guarantee safety with probability $1-δ$. However, almost all existing works consider $δ\geq 0.001$. The purpose of this paper is to argue that (1) in safety-critical applications, it is necessary to provide safety guarantees…
The ability to estimate human intentions and interact with human drivers intelligently is crucial for autonomous vehicles to successfully achieve their objectives. In this paper, we propose a game theoretic planning algorithm that models human opponents with an iterative reasoning framework and estimates human latent cognitive states through probabilistic inference and active learning. By modeling the interaction as a partially observable Markov decision process with adaptive state and action spaces, our algorithm is able to accomplish real-time lane changing tasks in a realistic driving simul…
School of Mechanical Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology（北京理工大学机械工程学院）；University of California at Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
Humans make daily routine decisions based on their internal states in intricate interaction scenarios. This paper presents a probabilistically reconstructive learning approach to identify the internal states of multi-vehicle sequential interactions when merging at highway on-ramps. We treated the merging task's sequential decision as a dynamic, stochastic process and then integrated the internal states into an HMM-GMR model, a probabilistic combination of an extended Gaussian mixture regression (GMR) and hidden Markov models (HMM). We also developed a variant expectation-maximum (EM) algorithm…
Institute of Software, CAS（中国科学院软件研究所）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；Nanjing Institute of Software Technology, ISCAS（中国科学院软件研究所南京软件技术研究院）；The University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）
We present a practical verification method for safety analysis of the autonomous driving system (ADS). The main idea is to build a surrogate model that quantitatively depicts the behaviour of an ADS in the specified traffic scenario. The safety properties proved in the resulting surrogate model apply to the original ADS with a probabilistic guarantee. Furthermore, we explore the safe and the unsafe parameter space of the traffic scenario for driving hazards. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach by evaluating safety properties on the state-of-the-art ADS in literature, with a var…
Reinforcement learning (RL) requires skillful definition and remarkable computational efforts to solve optimization and control problems, which could impair its prospect. Introducing human guidance into reinforcement learning is a promising way to improve learning performance. In this paper, a comprehensive human guidance-based reinforcement learning framework is established. A novel prioritized experience replay mechanism that adapts to human guidance in the reinforcement learning process is proposed to boost the efficiency and performance of the reinforcement learning algorithm. To relieve t…
Manually specifying features that capture the diversity in traffic environments is impractical. Consequently, learning-based agents cannot realize their full potential as neural motion planners for autonomous vehicles. Instead, this work proposes to learn which features are task-relevant. Given its immediate relevance to motion planning, our proposed architecture encodes the probabilistic occupancy map as a proxy for obtaining pre-trained state representations. By leveraging a map-aware graph formulation of the environment, our agent-centric encoder generalizes to arbitrary road networks and t…
Deep networks are currently the state-of-the-art for sensory perception in autonomous driving and robotics. However, deep models often generate overconfident predictions precluding proper probabilistic interpretation which we argue is due to the nature of the SoftMax layer. To reduce the overconfidence without compromising the classification performance, we introduce a CNN probabilistic approach based on distributions calculated in the network's Logit layer. The approach enables Bayesian inference by means of ML and MAP layers. Experiments with calibrated and the proposed prediction layers are…
With recent advances in learning algorithms and hardware development, autonomous cars have shown promise when operating in structured environments under good driving conditions. However, for complex, cluttered and unseen environments with high uncertainty, autonomous driving systems still frequently demonstrate erroneous or unexpected behaviors, that could lead to catastrophic outcomes. Autonomous vehicles should ideally adapt to driving conditions; while this can be achieved through multiple routes, it would be beneficial as a first step to be able to characterize Driveability in some quantif…
Accurately predicting the possible behaviors of traffic participants is an essential capability for autonomous vehicles. Since autonomous vehicles need to navigate in dynamically changing environments, they are expected to make accurate predictions regardless of where they are and what driving circumstances they encountered. Several methodologies have been proposed to solve prediction problems under different traffic situations. These works usually combine agent trajectories with either color-coded or vectorized high definition (HD) map as input representations and encode this information for …
Faculty of Medicine, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang（医学院，国王蒙克普技术学院拉德克拉 bang分校）；Department of Mechanical Systems Engineering, Nagoya University（机械系统工程系，名古屋大学）
