Autonomous vehicles should be able to generate accurate probabilistic predictions for uncertain behavior of other road users. Moreover, reactive predictions are necessary in highly interactive driving scenarios to answer "what if I take this action in the future" for autonomous vehicles. There is no existing unified framework to homogenize the problem formulation, representation simplification, and evaluation metric for various prediction methods, such as probabilistic graphical models (PGM), neural networks (NN) and inverse reinforcement learning (IRL). In this paper, we formulate a probabilistic reaction prediction problem, and reveal the relationship between reaction and situation prediction problems. We employ prototype trajectories with designated motion patterns other than "intention" to homogenize the representation so that probabilities corresponding to each trajectory generated by different methods can be evaluated. We also discuss the reasons why "intention" is not suitable to serve as a motion indicator in highly interactive scenarios. We propose to use Brier score as the baseline metric for evaluation. In order to reveal the fatality of the consequences when the predictions are adopted by decision-making and planning, we propose a fatality-aware metric, which is a weighted Brier score based on the criticality of the trajectory pairs of the interacting entities. Conservatism and non-defensiveness are defined from the weighted Brier score to indicate the consequences caused by inaccurate predictions. Modified methods based on PGM, NN and IRL are provided to generate probabilistic reaction predictions in an exemplar scenario of nudging from a highway ramp. The results are evaluated by the baseline and proposed metrics to construct a mini benchmark. Analysis on the properties of each method is also provided by comparing the baseline and proposed metric scores.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are on the road. To safely and efficiently interact with other road participants, AVs have to accurately predict the behavior of surrounding vehicles and plan accordingly. Such prediction should be probabilistic, to address the uncertainties in human behavior. Such prediction should also be interactive, since the distribution over all possible trajectories of the predicted vehicle depends not only on historical information, but also on future plans of other vehicles that interact with it. To achieve such interaction-aware predictions, we propose a probabilistic predic…
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Waymo（Waymo公司）
Interactive driving scenarios, such as lane changes, merges and unprotected turns, are some of the most challenging situations for autonomous driving. Planning in interactive scenarios requires accurately modeling the reactions of other agents to different future actions of the ego agent. We develop end-to-end models for conditional behavior prediction (CBP) that take as an input a query future trajectory for an ego-agent, and predict distributions over future trajectories for other agents conditioned on the query. Leveraging such a model, we develop a general-purpose agent interactivity score…
University of Maryland（马里兰大学）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；Rutgers University（罗格斯大学）
We present a novel interactive learning protocol that enables training request-fulfilling agents by verbally describing their activities. Unlike imitation learning (IL), our protocol allows the teaching agent to provide feedback in a language that is most appropriate for them. Compared with reward in reinforcement learning (RL), the description feedback is richer and allows for improved sample complexity. We develop a probabilistic framework and an algorithm that practically implements our protocol. Empirical results in two challenging request-fulfilling problems demonstrate the strengths of o…
Understanding an information forager's actions during interaction is very important for the study of interactive information retrieval. Although information spread in uncertain information space is substantially complex due to the high entanglement of users interacting with information objects~(text, image, etc.). However, an information forager, in general, accompanies a piece of information (information diet) while searching (or foraging) alternative contents, typically subject to decisive uncertainty. Such types of uncertainty are analogous to measurements in quantum mechanics which follow …
Accurately predicting the possible behaviors of traffic participants is an essential capability for autonomous vehicles. Since autonomous vehicles need to navigate in dynamically changing environments, they are expected to make accurate predictions regardless of where they are and what driving circumstances they encountered. Several methodologies have been proposed to solve prediction problems under different traffic situations. These works usually combine agent trajectories with either color-coded or vectorized high definition (HD) map as input representations and encode this information for …
The purpose of this tutorial is to help individuals use the \underline{FireCommander} game environment for research applications. The FireCommander is an interactive, probabilistic joint perception-action reconnaissance environment in which a composite team of agents (e.g., robots) cooperate to fight dynamic, propagating firespots (e.g., targets). In FireCommander game, a team of agents must be tasked to optimally deal with a wildfire situation in an environment with propagating fire areas and some facilities such as houses, hospitals, power stations, etc. The team of agents can accomplish the…
Collision-free mobile robot navigation is an important problem for many robotics applications, especially in cluttered environments. In such environments, obstacles can be static or dynamic. Dynamic obstacles can additionally be interactive, i.e. changing their behavior according to the behavior of other entities. The perception and prediction modules of robotic systems create probabilistic representations and predictions of such environments. In this paper, we propose a novel prediction representation for interactive behaviors of dynamic obstacles. Then, we propose a real-time trajectory plan…
Accurately tracking and predicting behaviors of surrounding objects are key prerequisites for intelligent systems such as autonomous vehicles to achieve safe and high-quality decision making and motion planning. However, there still remain challenges for multi-target tracking due to object number fluctuation and occlusion. To overcome these challenges, we propose a constrained mixture sequential Monte Carlo (CMSMC) method in which a mixture representation is incorporated in the estimated posterior distribution to maintain multi-modality. Multiple targets can be tracked simultaneously within a …
School of Mechanical Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology（北京理工大学机械工程学院）；University of California at Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
Humans make daily routine decisions based on their internal states in intricate interaction scenarios. This paper presents a probabilistically reconstructive learning approach to identify the internal states of multi-vehicle sequential interactions when merging at highway on-ramps. We treated the merging task's sequential decision as a dynamic, stochastic process and then integrated the internal states into an HMM-GMR model, a probabilistic combination of an extended Gaussian mixture regression (GMR) and hidden Markov models (HMM). We also developed a variant expectation-maximum (EM) algorithm…
Leveraging Trajectory Graphs for Pre-Execution Error Diagnosis in Agentic LLM Systems
Florida International University（佛罗里达国际大学）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；NEC Laboratories America（美国 NEC 实验室）；Singapore Management University（新加坡管理大学）
In order to enable high-quality decision making and motion planning of intelligent systems such as robotics and autonomous vehicles, accurate probabilistic predictions for surrounding interactive objects is a crucial prerequisite. Although many research studies have been devoted to making predictions on a single entity, it remains an open challenge to forecast future behaviors for multiple interactive agents simultaneously. In this work, we take advantage of the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) due to its capability of distribution learning and propose a generic multi-agent probabilistic p…
University of Lincoln（林肯大学）；Centre for Autonomous Systems (L-CAS)（自主系统中心（L-CAS））
The majority of motion planning strategies developed over the literature for reaching an object in clutter are applied to two dimensional (2-d) space where the state space of the environment is constrained in one direction. Fewer works have been investigated to reach a target in 3-d cluttered space, and when so, they have limited performance when applied to complex cases. In this work, we propose a constrained multi-objective optimization framework (OptI-ProMP) to approach the problem of reaching a target in a compact clutter with a case study on soft fruits grown in clusters, leveraging the l…
Conformalized Interactive Imitation Learning: Handling Expert Shift and Intermittent Feedback
Robotics Institute, School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University（机器人研究所、计算机科学学院、卡内基梅隆大学）；Departments of Statistics and Machine Learning, Carnegie Mellon University（统计学与机器学习系、卡内基梅隆大学）
Robust planning in interactive scenarios requires predicting the uncertain future to make risk-aware decisions. Unfortunately, due to long-tail safety-critical events, the risk is often under-estimated by finite-sampling approximations of probabilistic motion forecasts. This can lead to overconfident and unsafe robot behavior, even with robust planners. Instead of assuming full prediction coverage that robust planners require, we propose to make prediction itself risk-aware. We introduce a new prediction objective to learn a risk-biased distribution over trajectories, so that risk evaluation s…
