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arXiv 2010.05074cs.LGstat.ML
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半监督神经网络解决了建模Covid-19传播的逆问题

Semi-supervised Neural Networks solve an inverse problem for modeling Covid-19 spread

Politecnico di Milano(米兰理工大学);Harvard University(哈佛大学)

Alessandro Paticchio, Tommaso Scarlatti, Marios Mattheakis, Pavlos Protopapas, Marco Brambilla

摘要:

研究COVID-19的动态对于了解限制措施的效率以及制定防御即将到来的传染浪潮的策略至关重要。在这项工作中,我们使用半监督神经网络研究了COVID-19的传播,并假设一部分被动的人群与病毒动态保持隔离。我们从一个无监督的神经网络开始,它学习不同建模参数和初始条件下微分方程的解。然后,一种监督方法通过估计生成函数的最佳条件来解决逆问题,以拟合那些感染COVID-19、从COVID-19中康复和因COVID-19而死亡的人的数据。这种半监督的方法结合了真实的数据,以确定不同国家的传播,被动人口和基本繁殖数的演变。

英文摘要:

Studying the dynamics of COVID-19 is of paramount importance to understanding the efficiency of restrictive measures and develop strategies to defend against upcoming contagion waves. In this work, we study the spread of COVID-19 using a semi-supervised neural network and assuming a passive part of the population remains isolated from the virus dynamics. We start with an unsupervised neural network that learns solutions of differential equations for different modeling parameters and initial conditions. A supervised method then solves the inverse problem by estimating the optimal conditions that generate functions to fit the data for those infected by, recovered from, and deceased due to COVID-19. This semi-supervised approach incorporates real data to determine the evolution of the spread, the passive population, and the basic reproduction number for different countries.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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