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arXiv 2008.01170cs.LGstat.ML
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用于新型冠状病毒传播早期检测和预测的深度学习模型(COVID-19)

Deep Learning Models for Early Detection and Prediction of the spread of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Murdoch University(莫道克大学);Harry Butler Institute(哈里·巴特勒研究所)

Devante Ayris, Kye Horbury, Blake Williams, Mitchell Blackney, Celine Shi Hui See, Maleeha Imtiaz, Syed Afaq Ali Shah

摘要:

引起冠状病毒疾病(COVID-19)的SARS-CoV 2正在全球范围内持续传播,并已成为大流行病。由于病毒和缺乏应对措施,人们失去了生命。鉴于病例量的增加和传播的不确定性,迫切需要开发机器学习技术来预测COVID-19的传播。预测传播可允许实施应对措施和行动以减缓COVID-19的传播。在这篇论文中,我们提出了一种深度学习技术,称为深度序列预测模型(DSPM)和基于机器学习的非参数回归模型(NRM)来预测COVID-19的传播。我们提出的模型在2019年新型冠状病毒数据集上进行了训练和测试,该数据集包含1953万例COVID-19确诊病例。用平均绝对误差对模型进行了评价,并与基线法进行了比较。我们的实验结果,定量和定性,表明所提出的模型的优越的预测性能。

英文摘要:

SARS-CoV2, which causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is continuing to spread globally and has become a pandemic. People have lost their lives due to the virus and the lack of counter measures in place. Given the increasing caseload and uncertainty of spread, there is an urgent need to develop machine learning techniques to predict the spread of COVID-19. Prediction of the spread can allow counter measures and actions to be implemented to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. In this paper, we propose a deep learning technique, called Deep Sequential Prediction Model (DSPM) and machine learning based Non-parametric Regression Model (NRM) to predict the spread of COVID-19. Our proposed models were trained and tested on novel coronavirus 2019 dataset, which contains 19.53 Million confirmed cases of COVID-19. Our proposed models were evaluated by using Mean Absolute Error and compared with baseline method. Our experimental results, both quantitative and qualitative, demonstrate the superior prediction performance of the proposed models.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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