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arXiv 2008.07609cs.LGphysics.soc-phq-bio.PEstat.ML
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基于隐马尔可夫模型的COVID-19大流行监测

Surveillance of COVID-19 Pandemic using Hidden Markov Model

CMR Institute of Technology(CMR理工学院);PES University(PES大学)

Shreekanth M. Prabhu, Natarajan Subramaniam

摘要:

COVID-19疫情于过去数月令全球陷入停顿。特别是大流行病蔓延的速度让每个人都措手不及。世界各国政府的应对措施包括实施封锁、停止/限制旅行和强制保持社交距离。积极的一面是,可以广泛获得各区域每天收集的关于活跃病例、康复和死亡的信息。然而,特别具有挑战性的是追踪被称为超级传播者的无症状携带者的疾病传播。在本文中,我们着眼于应用隐马尔可夫模型来更好地评估传播的程度。这种分析的结果有助于各国政府以协调一致的方式设计所需的干预/应对措施。我们选择分析的数据与印度情景有关。

英文摘要:

COVID-19 pandemic has brought the whole world to a stand-still over the last few months. In particular the pace at which pandemic has spread has taken everybody off-guard. The Governments across the world have responded by imposing lock-downs, stopping/restricting travel and mandating social distancing. On the positive side there is wide availability of information on active cases, recoveries and deaths collected daily across regions. However, what has been particularly challenging is to track the spread of the disease by asymptomatic carriers termed as super-spreaders. In this paper we look at applying Hidden Markov Model to get a better assessment of extent of spread. The outcome of such analysis can be useful to Governments to design the required interventions/responses in a calibrated manner. The data we have chosen to analyze pertains to Indian scenario.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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