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arXiv 2009.01668cs.GT
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迭代囚徒困境的预测策略

A Predictive Strategy for the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma

Robert Prentner

摘要:

重复囚徒困境是一种基于非常简单的基本规则,在社会环境中产生许多反直觉和复杂行为的游戏。它说明,即使在竞争激烈的世界中,合作也可能是一件好事,个人适应性不一定是成功的最重要标准,有些策略在直接对抗中非常强大,但平均表现仍然很差,或者在进化上不稳定。在这篇文章中,我们提出了一个策略-预测-这似乎是“有知觉的”,并选择合作时,对一些策略,但对其他人的比赛时,缺陷,而不需要记录“标签”的对手或参与决策机制。为了能够在高度情境化的环境中运作,正如重复的囚徒困境所模拟的那样,预测者通过模拟对手和预测(虚构的)未来,从经验中学习选择最佳行动。结果表明,预测器是一个有效的策略,发挥迭代囚徒困境,是简单的实现。在模拟的和有代表性的比赛中,它实现了高的平均分数,并赢得了各种参数设置的比赛。因此,预测者依靠短暂的探索阶段来改进其模型,它可以从本质上自私的行为中进化出道德。

英文摘要:

The iterated prisoner's dilemma is a game that produces many counter-intuitive and complex behaviors in a social environment, based on very simple basic rules. It illustrates that cooperation can be a good thing even in a competitive world, that individual fitness needs not to be the most important criteria of success, and that some strategies are very strong in a direct confrontation but could still perform poorly on average or are evolutionarily unstable. In this contribution, we present a strategy -- PREDICTOR -- which appears to be "sentient" and chooses to cooperate when playing against some strategies, but defects when playing against others, without the need to record "tags" for its opponents or an involved decision-making mechanism. To be able to operate in the highly-contextual environment, as modeled by the iterated prisoner's dilemma, PREDICTOR learns from its experience to choose optimal actions by modeling its opponent and predicting a (fictive) future. It is shown that PREDICTOR is an efficient strategy for playing the iterated prisoner's dilemma and is simple to implement. In a simulated and representative tournament, it achieves high average scores and wins the tournament for various parameter settings. PREDICTOR thereby relies on a brief phase of exploration to improve its model, and it can evolve morality from intrinsically selfish behavior.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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