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arXiv 2008.12653math.PRmath.STstat.TH
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基于连续和离散观测的阈值Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程的漂移估计

Drift estimation of the threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process from continuous and discrete observations

Sara Mazzonetto, Paolo Pigato

摘要:

我们用阈值Ornstein-Uhlenbeck来表示连续时间阈值自回归过程。当高于或低于一个固定水平时,它遵循Ornstein-Uhlenbeck动力学,但在这个水平(阈值),它的系数可以是不连续的。我们讨论了漂移参数的(准)极大似然估计,假设连续和离散时间的观测。在遍历的情况下,我们得到的一致性和收敛速度,这些估计在长时间和高频率。基于这些结果,我们开发了一个测试中的动态阈值的存在。最后,我们将这些统计工具应用于短期美国利率建模。

英文摘要:

We refer by threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck to a continuous-time threshold autoregressive process. It follows the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics when above or below a fixed level, yet at this level (threshold) its coefficients can be discontinuous. We discuss (quasi)-maximum likelihood estimation of the drift parameters, both assuming continuous and discrete time observations. In the ergodic case, we derive consistency and speed of convergence of these estimators in long time and high frequency. Based on these results, we develop a test for the presence of a threshold in the dynamics. Finally, we apply these statistical tools to short-term US interest rates modeling.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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