arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2007.10150cs.NI
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互联网流量预测不是高斯的--它们是对数正态的:一项18年的纵向研究及其对建模和预测的影响

Internet Traffic Volumes Are Not Gaussian -- They Are Log-Normal: An 18-Year Longitudinal Study With Implications for Modelling and Prediction (Complete Version)

Mohammed Alasmar, Richard Clegg, Nickolay Zakhleniuk, George Parisis

摘要:

获得网络链路上流量的良好统计模型是一个众所周知的,经常研究的问题。相关模式和流动持续时间已经引起了很多关注。单位时间内交通量的分配是一个同样重要但研究较少的问题。我们使用最先进的统计技术研究了来自许多不同网络的大量流量轨迹,包括学术,商业和住宅网络。我们发现,流量服从对数正态分布,这是一个更好的拟合比高斯分布通常在文献中声称。我们还研究了另一种重尾分布(威布尔分布),并表明其性能优于高斯分布,但比对数正态分布差。我们研究异常的痕迹,表现出一个穷人适合所有的分布尝试,并表明这往往是由于交通中断或链接,达到最大容量。我们证明,如果我们考虑15分钟长甚至1小时长的样本,我们看到的数据是静止的。这使我们有信心可以使用分布进行估计和建模。我们证明了我们的研究结果在两种情况下的效用:预测时间流量的比例将超过一个给定的水平(服务水平协议或链路容量估计)和预测第95百分位的定价。我们还表明,对数正态分布是一个更好的预测比高斯或威布尔分布在这两种情况下。

英文摘要:

Getting good statistical models of traffic on network links is a well-known, often-studied problem. A lot of attention has been given to correlation patterns and flow duration. The distribution of the amount of traffic per unit time is an equally important but less studied problem. We study a large number of traffic traces from many different networks including academic, commercial and residential networks using state-of-the-art statistical techniques. We show that traffic obeys the log-normal distribution which is a better fit than the Gaussian distribution commonly claimed in the literature. We also investigate an alternative heavy-tailed distribution (the Weibull) and show that its performance is better than Gaussian but worse than log-normal. We examine anomalous traces which exhibit a poor fit for all distributions tried and show that this is often due to traffic outages or links that hit maximum capacity. We demonstrate that the data we look at is stationary if we consider samples of 15- minute long or even 1-hour long. This gives confidence that we can use the distributions for estimation and modelling purposes. We demonstrate the utility of our findings in two contexts: predicting that the proportion of time traffic will exceed a given level (for service level agreement or link capacity estimation) and predicting 95th percentile pricing. We also show that the log-normal distribution is a better predictor than Gaussian or Weibull distributions in both contexts.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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