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arXiv 2006.01601eess.SYcs.AIcs.LGcs.SY
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基于代理模型的分散电力市场碳税优化

Optimizing carbon tax for decentralized electricity markets using an agent-based model

Newcastle University(纽卡斯尔大学)

Alexander J. M. Kell, A. Stephen McGough, Matthew Forshaw

摘要:

避免人为气候变化的影响需要从化石燃料过渡到低碳技术。实现这一目标的一种方法是使电网脱碳。但是,在其他领域,如运输和加热方面,必须进一步努力,以实现完全脱碳。这将减少发电产生的碳排放,并通过实现低碳替代方案来帮助汽车和供暖等其他来源脱碳。碳税已被证明是帮助这一转型的有效途径。在本文中,我们演示了如何找到最优的碳税政策,通过遗传算法的方法,使用电力市场代理为基础的模型ElecSim。为了实现这一目标,我们使用NSGA-II遗传算法,以最小化平均电价和相对碳强度的电力组合。我们证明,这是可能的,以适应不同的目标,找到一系列的碳税。我们的研究结果表明,我们能够最大限度地减少电力成本低于\textsterling 10/MWh以及碳强度为零,在每种情况下。在最优碳税策略方面,我们发现,在2020年至2035年之间的增加策略是可取的。每一个帕累托前沿最优税收策略每年都至少在\textsterling 81/tCO 2以上。平均碳税策略为\textsterling 240/tCO 2。

英文摘要:

Averting the effects of anthropogenic climate change requires a transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon technology. A way to achieve this is to decarbonize the electricity grid. However, further efforts must be made in other fields such as transport and heating for full decarbonization. This would reduce carbon emissions due to electricity generation, and also help to decarbonize other sources such as automotive and heating by enabling a low-carbon alternative. Carbon taxes have been shown to be an efficient way to aid in this transition. In this paper, we demonstrate how to to find optimal carbon tax policies through a genetic algorithm approach, using the electricity market agent-based model ElecSim. To achieve this, we use the NSGA-II genetic algorithm to minimize average electricity price and relative carbon intensity of the electricity mix. We demonstrate that it is possible to find a range of carbon taxes to suit differing objectives. Our results show that we are able to minimize electricity cost to below \textsterling10/MWh as well as carbon intensity to zero in every case. In terms of the optimal carbon tax strategy, we found that an increasing strategy between 2020 and 2035 was preferable. Each of the Pareto-front optimal tax strategies are at least above \textsterling81/tCO2 for every year. The mean carbon tax strategy was \textsterling240/tCO2.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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