能源对地球上国内生产总值的限制
Energy Limits to the Gross Domestic Product on Earth
摘要：
一旦实现碳排放中和和其他可持续发展目标，一个普遍的假设是，以目前的速度经济增长可以持续到21世纪以后。然而，即使我们实现了这些目标，这篇文章表明，纯粹由于能源和热力学因素，地球全球经济的整体规模正面临上限。为此，我们将全球变暖分解为两个部分：温室气体效应和与经济活动相关的能源消耗的热量耗散。对于由于温室气体排放而导致的温度升高，我们将2 °C和5 °C作为我们的下限和上限。对于与能源消耗有关的散热的变暖效应，我们使用了一个简化的全球变暖模型和全球国内生产总值（GDP）和一次能源生产之间的历史相关性的外推。结合这两种影响，我们将可接受的全球变暖温度限制设定为比工业化前水平高7 °C。我们开发了四种方案，基于大规模部署碳中和能源的可行性。我们的研究结果表明，对于2%的年GDP增长率，即使在大规模部署聚变发电等新能源的有利情况下，也将在几个世纪内达到上限。我们的结论是，除非GDP可以在很大程度上与能源消耗脱钩，否则热力学将给地球经济的规模设置一个硬上限。进一步的经济增长必然要求将经济活动扩展到空间。
英文摘要：
Once carbon emission neutrality and other sustainability goals have been achieved, a widespread assumption is that economic growth at current rates can be sustained beyond the 21st century. However, even if we achieve these goals, this article shows that the overall size of Earth's global economy is facing an upper limit purely due to energy and thermodynamic factors. For that, we break down global warming into two components: the greenhouse gas effect and heat dissipation from energy consumption related to economic activities. For the temperature increase due to greenhouse gas emissions, we take 2 °C and 5 °C as our lower and upper bounds. For the warming effect of heat dissipation related to energy consumption, we use a simplified model for global warming and an extrapolation of the historical correlation between global gross domestic product (GDP) and primary energy production. Combining the two effects, we set the acceptable global warming temperature limit to 7 °C above pre-industrial levels. We develop four scenarios, based on the viability of large-scale deployment of carbon-neutral energy sources. Our results indicate that for a 2% annual GDP growth, the upper limit will be reached at best within a few centuries, even in favorable scenarios where new energy sources such as fusion power are deployed on a massive scale. We conclude that unless GDP can be largely decoupled from energy consumption, thermodynamics will put a hard cap on the size of Earth's economy. Further economic growth would necessarily require expanding economic activities into space.
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