MEDEAS-World模型校准，用于研究能源转型
MEDEAS-World model calibration for the study of the energy transition
摘要：
MEDEAS（Modeling the Energy Development under Environmental And Socioeconomic constraint）World是一个新的全球综合能源-经济-环境模型，运行时间为1995年至2050年。在这项工作中，我们测试了MEDEAS世界模型，以重现与2 °C全球变暖一致的IPCC（国际气候变化专门委员会）GHG（温室气体）排放途径。我们实现了MEDEAS模型在2050年前不同情景下的参数优化。我们选择对直接影响排放曲线的参数进行敏感性分析，重点关注RES（可再生能源），GDP（国内生产总值）和年人口增长率的年增长率。从这一分析可以推断出国内生产总值对排放情景的巨大影响。
英文摘要：
MEDEAS (Modelling the Energy Development under Environmental And Socioeconomic constraint) World is a new global-aggregated energy-economy-environmental model, which runs from 1995 to 2050. In this work, we tested the MEDEAS world model to reproduce the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) GHG (Green House Gases) emission pathways consistent with 2 °C Global Warming. We achieved parameter optimizations of the MEDEAS model related to different scenarios until 2050. We chose to provide a sensitivity analysis on the parameters that directly influence the emission curves focusing on the annual growth of the RES (Renewable Energy Sources), GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and annual population growth. From such an analysis, it has been possible to infer the large impact of GDP on the emission scenarios.
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